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USATSI

Quarterfinal action in the 2024-25 Champions League kicks off Tuesday, April 8, with defending champions Real Madrid visiting London to take on Arsenal. Real Madrid are entering this contest after a surprising 2-1 loss to Valencia thanks to a goal in stoppage time, while Arsenal look to bounce back from an underwhelming showing in a 1-1 draw to Everton. This is the first meeting in the Champions League between these two clubs since the Round of 16 in 2005-06, where Arsenal defeated Real Madrid 1-0 on aggregate.

Real Madrid at Arsenal odds

  • Total: 2.5 (Over -120, Under -105)
  • Money line (odds via DraftKings): Real Madrid +265, Draw +250, Arsenal +105

The SportsLine Projection Model leans to the Over in the first leg of this quarterfinal matchup and says one side of the money line has all the value. You can see the model's latest projections, along with expert picks for Real Madrid vs. Arsenal, on SportsLine. Experts Martin Green and Jon Eimer have both locked in their picks on the total.

Real Madrid needed a win over Brest in the final match of the Champions League group stage to qualify for the playoff knockout round, bringing them face to face with Manchester City once again. The Spanish side looked like the defending champions in that two-leg tie, winning 6-3 on aggregate thanks to a Kylian Mbappé hat trick in the second leg. Real Madrid then took out crosstown rivals Atletico Madrid in a Round of 16 derby, controversially winning 4-2 on penalties in the second leg after a 2-2 tie on aggregate. 

Mbappe and Vinicius Junior, Real Madrid's top scorers, both have seven goals in Champions League play this season. Mbappe is priced at +180 on DraftKings to find the back of the net, while Vinicius Junior comes in at +300. Despite Los Blancos seemingly being unstoppable in Europe's top club competition, they have faltered on the road this season in domestic play. Real Madrid are just 7-5-3 away from the Santiago Bernabeu compared to a 12-1-2 record at home and are dealing with several injuries to key defensive players. Aurelien Tchouameni is suspended for this encounter, while Dani Ceballos, Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao and Ferland Mendy have all been ruled out. Ceballos and Mendy are expected to be back this season, while Carvajal and Militao are done for the campaign.

Arsenal are also bringing a long injury list into this match. Kai Havertz is the latest Gunner to go down for the year, suffering a hamstring injury in late February during a training session. Raheem Sterling is serving a suspension, while Gabriel, Riccardo Calafiori and Takehiro Tomiyasu will all be unavailable due to injuries. However, star winger Bukayo Saka has returned after an extended absence. The Gunners have fallen off in the Premier League race after a stretch of draws in December and January, so the majority of their focus should be on this competition. After finishing in the top eight in the group stage and automatically advancing to the Round of 16, Arsenal defeated PSV Eindhoven 9-3 on aggregate to reach the quarterfinal. They have lost just once at home in EPL play this season, sporting a 10-4-1 record.

Havertz led Arsenal with nine EPL goals and four UCL goals, so the Gunners will have to find offense elsewhere. Saka and Martin Odegaard also have four goals in Champions League play this season, while Gabriel Martinelli and Mikel Merino have picked up the slack in the Premier League. Merino is the most likely Arsenal scorer per DraftKings at +260, followed closely by Saka at +270.