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Inside the Lines team

The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can visit SportsLine for our model's main market bets (spread, total, money line) but if you are looking for ALL our personal best bets for free, check out our recently launched Inside the Lines blog. These are just a fraction of our best bets, which are all free on our new blog. We will be providing our team's personal best bets for every NFL game during the 2025 season.   

Main Markets

The line has steamed from Green Bay -1 to Green Bay -3.5. The model's projected score is Packers 30, Commanders 21. Even with the line steaming hard to GB after their dominant win vs the Lions the model still has a high 62% chance that the Packers cover and 95% of the value on GB ATS and the over (51%) is based on the Packers scoring 30 pts per sim (odds imply 25.8).

So most of the good player prop values will come from the Green Bay side since our projected scoring is 16% higher than their prop lines are configured for in terms of scoring. With Green Bay -180 implying 64% and the model having them just under 70% we do have a lean on GB to win as well.

Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-112 FanDuel)

Love dealt with injuries and WR drops in 2024 and it resulted in just a 3-8 over stretch from 10/27/24 to their playoff loss to Philly. This line is based on his overall 2024 performance where he averaged 1.6.

But I think his line should be based on how he played healthy with a normal WR drop rate and that Love is 15-1 over/under from 11/12/23 to 10/20/24. Washington's defense looked great in Week 1 but they were also facing a washed Russell Wilson. Last season Washington allowed +6.6 more on the road (27.8) than at home and they have to travel coming off a short week.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)

The line is 4 yards higher on most other books so this is likely to steam well over 44 by Thursday. Austin Ekeler started Week 1 and was very productive but then basically sat for most of the 2nd quarter on.

"Bill" finished with an impressive 82 yards (10 carries) and a TD. Green Bay shut down the Lions great run game allowing just 46 rushing yards (2.1 ypc) but it's a totally different situation when you have duel threat QB like Jayden Daniels. Bill is an explosive runner and I like the >20% chance that he finds a wide open running lane or gets around the edge and breaks at least one long one.

I think over 12.5 for his longest rush (-110 BetMGM, DK) could also be a solid value. Bet JCM over 38.5 rushing yards at BetMGM, where new users get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first football wager doesn't win:

Terry McLaurin Anytime Touchdown (+165 Hard Rock, +155 FanDuel)

If you have access to Hard Rock they are offering the best price but if not, FanDuel is the best option. We are projecting 1.28 passing touchdowns for Jayden Daniels which is in line with his Under 1.5 (-148 avg odds).

I actually like having McLaurin with value (proj 0.47 TD) despite not having value on Daniels' TD passes. I did not hit on this same bet in Week 1 but that was only because Daniels overthrew a wide open McLaurin. Deebo Samuel's impressive debut will draw way more attention from Green Bay's defense than anyone McLaurin played with last season and I think he'll find the end zone with "half" as much attention as he got last season while still scoring in 12 of 20 games (8 of last 9 games).

What makes a bet an "Inside the Lines Best Bet?" 

These are ones where:

1) Best Projection: Our SportsLine Model's projection shows clear value versus the line and we love certain statistical trends, X's and O's and subjective supporting data that supports our side but isn't directly factored into the model. For example, say we love a running back to go Over 14.5 carries and his backup is projected for 5.5 carries, but the backup is questionable and there's a chance he can be ruled out, which surely will change our projection to 16.5 (third-stringer gets 3.5) and the line would likely go from 12.5 to 15.5. If we have value on a side and the only unknown factors that will change are in our favor, we'll consider it our "Best Projection."

AND

2) Best Price: There is an outlier best price that we should take advantage of before it steams in "our direction." In most of these cases, the best-priced book is using "standard odds making logic" to set the line, but our team has identified a unique situation where standard odds rules don't apply. For example, maybe a player is -110 to throw an interception, but in his last three seasons he has averaged just 0.4 interceptions on the road compared to 0.7 at home because the team plays on a fast track at home and averages 5+ more pass attempts at home.

Step 1 provides greater accuracy and Step 2, especially when combined with a nice Profit Boost or Promotion, significantly lowers the bar for being profitable ... which is why we like to feature our best line sportsbooks offers.