Mets vs. Giants same-game parlay for Sunday Night Baseball from proven expert includes Kodai Senga

Angelo Magliocca, who is up 123.5 units over the last three MLB seasons, gives his best same-game parlay for Mets-Giants on Sunday Night Baseball

By Brandon Gustafson

Jul 27, 2025 at 4:58 pm ET • 4 min read

Imagn Images

This week's Sunday Night Baseball clash sees two National League playoff contenders square off at 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN when the San Francisco Giants host the New York Mets. New York is going for a series sweep after winning each of the first two games of the series and allowing just two total runs. The Mets are 61-44 and are in first place in the NL West while the Giants enter Sunday with a 54-51 record, which has them two games back of the third Wild Card spot.

Kodai Senga (7-3, 1.79 ERA) gets the ball for the Mets in this one while the Giants have a bullpen day planned, starting with right-hander Matt Gage (0-0, 0.00 ERA) in his 10th appearance of the season. Senga missed a month due to injury and will make his third start since that stint on Sunday. He gave up four runs in his last appearance.

The Mets are road favorites on the money line at -122 (wager $122 to win $100) while the Giants are +102 (wager $100 to win $102) underdogs, according to the latest SportsLine consensus odds. The total is set at eight runs. You can find the model's latest projections, along with expert picks for Mets-Giants, at SportsLine.

Angelo Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a regular contributor to The Early Edge and CBS Sports HQ, is a seasoned MLB handicapper up 123.5 units over the last three MLB seasons. He's put together a same-game parlay for Sunday Night Baseball on DraftKings that includes Senga.

Sunday Night Baseball Same-Game Parlay: +420 (DraftKings)

Kodai Senga 3+ walks
Kodai Senga 5+ strikeouts
Giants +1.5

After allowing just two runs across the first two games of this series, the New York Mets will now send Kodai Senga to the mound in San Francisco on Sunday Night Baseball. The Giants counter with Matt Gage as an opener, with a bullpen game to follow and Carson Seymour slated to handle multiple innings. A bullpen game is not really a formula for success when you're looking to avoid the sweep, but the Giants used their big guns the last couple nights in Logan Webb and Robbie Ray to no avail, so this is the spot they're in now.

Senga has been rather solid for the Mets this year, but since returning from a stint on the IL, he's pitched a total of seven innings across two starts, walking five and giving up eight hits and four runs. The four runs all came in his last start with the first being a scoreless effort, so he's been up and down since the return. Still, walking too many batters is usually not going to prove successful, and that will once again be a focus for Senga in order to work deeper into the game. The Mets could really use some length out of Senga, even if only five innings, so he should be in long enough to get through the Giants order at least a couple of times, which has me looking at the Over 2.5 walks line. Senga has walked left-handed batters at a significantly higher clip this year and the Giants will likely have at least four lefties in the order tonight, with their 2-5 hitters all possessing above an 11.5% walk rate on the year. Rafael Devers is the most notable, with a walk rate above 17% this year when facing right-handed pitching, so I don't even mind taking a shot on the 1+ walk for Devers at -125 as a straight bet. The full game total of three walks for Senga is where we are going here, and if you want to take it down to just 2+ walks, that's fine with me, although using the 3+ level will get us eligible for boosts at +400 odds.

It's not all doom and gloom for Senga, though, as he's also struck out 41 lefties in 39 innings this year, better than one per inning, and the numbers for right-handed batters are not too far off. Senga has struck out at least five batters in eight of his last 10 appearances, even before the IL stint, and he's shown some similar underlying metrics since returning to action this month. I'm backing the Mets right-hander to tab at least five strikeouts in this one, as seven of the nine batters in the Giants' projected lineup have a strikeout rate above 22% against righties, with five of those above 25% and closer to 30%. The "ghost forkball" from Senga (or splitter, if you will) has tore this lineup apart in terms of strikeouts, and I doubt they will be a stout opponent against that pitch if Senga has a good feel for it tonight. The 5+ strikeouts level for Senga helps us get this parlay above those +400 odds, but I'm also going to play a strikeout ladder here to capture some of his upside, too.

Lastly, the Giants will need to avoid the sweep tonight after dropping two close games to the Mets over the past couple of nights. It won't be easy with a bullpen game on tap, but I also believe Senga is gettable. And with how the last couple games have played out, I would not be surprised to see another close game here. Playing the Giants +1.5 gives us the opportunity to win even if the Giants do get swept.