NFL awards update: It's a two-man race for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

There are two reasons to think that there still may be value in betting on the Offensive Rookie of the Year race with one game remaining

By Gene Menez

Jan 2, 2026 at 5:36 pm ET • 2 min read

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The AP Offensive Rookie of the Year won't be announced until Feb. 5, but the leading candidates will make their final cases this weekend. According to current odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, the award is seemingly down to two candidates: Carolina Panthers receiver Tetairoa McMillan and New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough.

At DraftKings, McMillan is the -175 favorite entering the final week of the regular season, while Shough is the +150 second choice. Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson (+1200), Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart (+1400) and Buccaneers receiver Emeka Egbuka (+1600) round out the top five choices in the wagering but are considerable longshots.

The case for McMillan to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year is strong. He leads all rookies in receiving touchdowns (seven), while ranking second in receiving yards (929) and third in receptions (66) for an 8-8 Panthers team that leads the division and can clinch a spot in the playoffs with either a win or tie against Tampa Bay (7-9) on Saturday or a Saints loss to the Falcons on Sunday. McMillan and Carolina are three-point underdogs in the latest odds from DraftKings to the Buccaneers.

Meanwhile, Shough also has an argument to win the award. Since taking over the starting job for New Orleans in Week 9, the strong-armed quarterback has completed 69.6% of his passes for 1,997 yards and nine touchdowns against four interceptions. Most importantly, he has the Saints on a four-game winning streak, which is the franchise's longest in a single season since 2020. Shough and New Orleans are 3.5-point underdogs in the latest odds from DraftKings against Atlanta.

But there are two reasons why the betting value may still be on McMillan even though he's the favorite. First, he has a plus matchup against the Tampa Bay defense. Against this same defense just two weeks ago, he had six catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. The Buccaneers have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, allowing 236.4 yards per game through the air (26th in the league), and will be without cornerback Jamel Dean, who's out for Saturday with a shoulder injury.

In addition, the structure of the voting could help McMillan. Voters are required to rank their top five Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates, and the players earn points on a 10-5-3-2-1 basis (10 points for a first-place vote, five for a second and so on). Past results show that voters favor players who play a full schedule versus those who play a shortened one. That could very well put McMillan, who has every game, on more ballots than Shough, who has played just 10 games and started eight of those.

The -175 odds on McMillan to win the award translates to a 63.6% chance of winning, which means there's value to a bettor who believes McMillan's chance to win is roughly two-thirds or more.