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The Kansas City Chiefs haven't been playoff spectators since 2015, the second year of Andy Reid's tenure as head coach. Patrick Mahomes has reached the postseason every year since being selected with the 10th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.

Kansas City's streak of consecutive AFC West titles ended at nine with its 20-10 loss to the Houston Texans in Week 14, as the team is five games behind the division-leading Denver Broncos with four remaining. And its run of 10 consecutive playoff appearances likely will be halted with a setback against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15.

The Chiefs (6-7) trail the Chargers (9-4), who occupy the first AFC wild card spot, by three games and dropped a 27-21 decision to Los Angeles in the season opener for both teams in Brazil. A loss would leave them no chance to overtake the Chargers for a postseason berth.

Kansas City also is three games behind the Buffalo Bills (9-4), who avenged last year's defeat in the AFC Conference Championship Game by posting a 28-21 victory at home in Week 9. It trails AFC South-leading Jacksonville (9-4) by three as well, and the Jaguars own the tiebreaker should they slip into a wild card position, as they defeated the Chiefs 31-28 in Week 5. They Chiefs are two behind Houston (8-5), which also owns wins the tie-break by virtue of last week's victory.

But don't count out Reid, Mahomes and the rest of the gang just yet.

Should the Chiefs knock off the Chargers at home on Sunday, it's very possible they could run the table and finish the season at 10-7. They have road games against the Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders, both of whom are sitting at 2-11, sandwiched around a home meeting with Denver, which edged Kansas City 22-19 at home in Week 11 on a field goal as time expired.

Prior to that loss, and not including a 38-0 setback in the 2024 season finale in which they rested their starters, the Chiefs won 17 of their previous 18 matchups against the Broncos. 

Meanwhile, Los Angeles faces the Cowboys in Dallas and the Texans at home before ending the regular season on the road against the Broncos. Denver may have nothing on the line by then, especially if it has the No. 1 seed in the conference secured, but likely would relish the opportunity to prevent the division-rival Chargers from making the postseason should it present itself.

It definitely is a lot to ask, but writing off Kansas City before it's officially eliminated from contention could be a huge mistake. Many so-called experts made that blunder just two years ago, as the Chiefs had to play on the road in the postseason for the first time since 2015 and went on to register a 27-24 win at Buffalo in the divisional round and a 17-10 triumph over the Ravens in Baltimore in the conference championship game to secure the fourth of what would be five Super Bowl appearances in six seasons.

However, Kansas City has to perform much better than it did against Houston last Sunday, starting with Mahomes. The two-time NFL MVP completed only 14 of his 33 attempts versus the Texans' top-ranked defense, for a season-low 160 yards, and was intercepted three times while failing to throw a touchdown pass.

Mahomes did gain 59 of the Chiefs' 126 rushing yards, but Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco only ran for 30 apiece. And Travis Kelce resembled a 36-year-old tight end who is on his last legs, as he hauled in just one of the five passes that came his way. He also was unable to corral a ball that went off his hands and into those of Houston linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair for an interception with less than four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter and Kansas City trailing 17-10.

Even Reid deserves some criticism, as he made some questionable decisions in the fourth quarter. With the game tied, Reid elected not to punt on fourth-and-1 from his own 31-yard line with 10:22 remaining, and Mahomes' pass to Rashee Rice was incomplete. The future Hall-of-Fame coach chose to go for it again on Kansas City's next possession with his team trailing 17-10 and 5:31 left, but Mahomes threw another incompletion in Rice's direction on fourth-and-4 from his own 41.

Another reason not to prematurely give up on the Chiefs is their recent track record against the Chargers. Before losing the 2025 season opener, Kansas City reeled off seven consecutive victories over Los Angeles -- including the last three meetings at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chargers edged the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles 22-19 in overtime this past Monday for their fifth win in six games, but the injuries continued to pile up as wideout/kick returner Derius Davis (ankle), right tackle Trey Pipkins III (ankle) and safety Elijah Molden (hamstring) all exited that contest and are questionable for Week 15. And let's not forget Justin Herbert, who played against Philadelphia with a fractured left hand and led the team in rushing with 66 yards but was only 12-of-26 passing for a mere 139 yards.

Regardless, the outlook is bleak for the Chiefs, and SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and its projection model currently give them very little chance to extend their playoff streak to 11 seasons. The ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, doesn't see their chances improving much with a victory in Week 15.

The Broncos and New England Patriots appear to be on their way to division titles, and either the Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers will capture the AFC North crown. Jacksonville, Houston and the Indianapolis Colts are battling for first place in the AFC South. Take away the winners of those two divisions and that leaves seven teams in the hunt for the three wild card spots in the conference, and Kansas City is among three of them that are hanging on by a thread. 

CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS

TEAM

CURRENT

WITH WEEK 15 WIN

WITH WEEK 15 LOSS

DIFFERENCE

Kansas City Chiefs

6.0%

8.6%

0.1%

8.5%

Jacksonville Jaguars

96.5%

98.6%

86.8%

11.8%

Buffalo Bills

94.9%

98.9%

89.2%

9.7%

Houston Texans

86.7%

89.7%

75.0%

14.7%

Los Angeles Chargers

73.8%

88.6%

65.9%

22.7%

Pittsburgh Steelers

73.5%

79.2%

62.2%

17.0%

Indianapolis Colts

41.8%

64.3%

32.3%

32.0%

Baltimore Ravens

23.9%

36.7

9.7%

27.0%

Miami Dolphins

0.1%

0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

Jacksonville is likely to maintain its one-game lead in the AFC South as it hosts the New York Jets this week, and Pittsburgh may do the same in the AFC North as it welcomes Miami to Acrisure Stadium, although the Dolphins enter with a four-game winning streak. 

Baltimore visits the demoralized Cincinnati Bengals, but its best chance for the postseason is beating out Pittsburgh for the AFC North title, as Kansas City owns the tiebreaker between the two teams. The wheels have fallen off Indianapolis' wagon as the team has lost three in a row and four of five, saw a rejuvenated Daniel Jones - who was playing with a fractured leg - go down last week with a torn Achilles. His replacement, Riley Leonard, is dealing with a knee injury that could keep him out of the lineup for the Colts' road game against the Seattle Seahawks.

Indianapolis is so thin at the quarterback position, it coaxed a 44-year-old Philip Rivers out of retirement and signed him to the practice squad. Throw in the fact that Seattle has won three straight contests and seven of its last eight, and you realize the Colts' once-bright playoff outlook has dimmed quite a bit.

A victory is probable for Houston when it hosts the spiraling Arizona Cardinals, who have lost five in a row. Buffalo faces a stiff challenge as it visits New England, but it's extremely doubtful the Chiefs will overtake the Bills in the wild card race. 

That leaves the Chargers as the team Kansas City has the best chance to overtake for a wild card berth. Although the Chiefs must discover their A game immediately and receive a ton of help at the same time, crazier things have happened in the sports world. And as mentioned earlier, it's never wise to give up on a team that has proven on many occasions that no challenge is too great for it.

Kansas City is a 4.5-point favorite against Los Angeles in the latest NFL odds. Herbert racked up 318 yards through the air in the Chargers' 27-21 triumph over the Chiefs in Week 1 and made three touchdown passes, including a pair to Quentin Johnston, while Mahomes threw for one TD and ran for another.

The model believes Kansas City will keep alive its slim playoff hopes with a victory in Sunday's showdown with Los Angeles, as it is predicting a 26-18 triumph by the Chiefs.