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The Houston Cougars can reach the national championship game for the third time in program history when they take on the Baylor Bears in a 2021 Final Four matchup on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Houston made back-to-back championship games in 1983 and '84 -- the heyday of the Phi Slama Jama era. But the team famously lost the '83 game to Jim Valvano and NC State on a buzzer-beating dunk and the '84 contest to Patrick Ewing and Georgetown. On Saturday the Cougars (28-3) will face Baylor (26-2), which is trying to reach the championship game for the first time since 1948. The winner will face either No. 1 Gonzaga or streaking UCLA in the title game of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. 

Tip-off is set for 5:14 p.m. ET on CBS. The Bears are favored by five points in the latest Baylor vs. Houston odds from William Hill Sportsbook while the over-under for total points scored is 135. Before locking in any Houston vs. Baylor picks, you need to check out the 2021 March Madness Final Four predictions from SportsLine's Josh Nagel. 

A Nevada-based handicapper with more than 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel has had a particularly keen eye for the Bears. He is 14-4 with his last 18 against-the-spread college basketball picks involving Baylor, earning a profit of $968. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, he has set his sights on Baylor vs. Houston in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Houston vs. Baylor:

  • Baylor vs. Houston spread: Bears -5
  • Baylor vs. Houston over-under: 135 points
  • Baylor vs. Houston money line: Bears -230, Cougars +190
  • BU: Team leads country in 3-point field goal percentage (41.1)
  • UH: Cougars lead nation in field goal percentage defense (37.3)

Why Baylor can cover 

Guard Davion Mitchell is on fire. Over his last seven games, the junior from Hinesville, Ga., is shooting 57.3 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from the 3-point arc. During that time he is averaging 15.3 points, 4.4 assists and 2.0 steals a game.

In addition, Baylor is by far the best team Houston has faced this season. The Cougars played only one ranked team this season, beating No. 14 Texas Tech, 64-53 in November. They also are the first team in NCAA Tournament history to face four double-digit seeds since the seeding of teams began in 1979.

Why Houston can cover

Houston is ruthlessly efficient on both ends of the floor. The Cougars are one of just four teams in the country to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They score 118.6 points per 100 possessions (seventh in the nation) and allow just 88.4 points per 100 possessions (eighth).

In addition, DeJon Jarreau is an elite defensive player. The 6-foot-5 senior from New Orleans ranks among the nation's top five percentage leaders in individual defensive efficiency. In the Cougars' win over Boise State on Nov. 27, he held Derrick Alston, who averaged 17.0 points per game this season, scoreless. For his efforts this season Jarreau was named the American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year.

How to make Baylor vs. Houston picks

Nagel is leaning under on the total and he's found a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Baylor vs. Houston? And which critical X-factor makes one side hit hard? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from expert who has crushed his college basketball picks.