What Coach K needs from his one-and-dones if Duke is to truly dominate
It's been a struggle for Coach K to get his players to be better defenders, but if they do, watch out
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5 min read
At some point between winning his fourth national title in 2010 and his fifth national title in 2015, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski made a decision.
His school was Duke, one of the most prestigious programs in college basketball history. And one of the most prestigious programs in college basketball history should be recruiting the best high school basketball players in the country. So Coach K bit the bullet and changed his recruiting philosophy, going all in on one-and-done players.
That's how we got from the 2010 team (zero players who were selected in that June's NBA Draft, even as Kentucky had a record five taken in the first round) to the 2015 team (three one-and-done players who became first-round picks) to today, where Duke is starting four freshmen for what's beyond a doubt the most talented team in college basketball.
Faced with Kentucky's full embrace of players' one-and-done dreams, Coach K decided Duke needed to change with the times. Few 70-year-old men have ever made wholesale philosophical changes better than Coach K has, evidenced by Duke landing a commitment this week from Zion Williamson, the No. 3-ranked prospect in the nation according to 247Sports. That gave Duke the first recruiting class that includes the top three players in recruiting rankings. Duke is starting four freshmen this season who ought to be first-round picks in June. Expect the same thing next season, too.
But there's a tricky situation Coach K inadvertently got himself into when he made this philosophical shift. As John Calipari has learned at Kentucky, stirring a pot with a bunch of talented freshmen can turn into basketball alchemy; sometimes you end up with a Final Four, sometimes you end up losing to Robert Morris in the NIT.
And this is best exemplified by freshmen struggling to pick up defensive schemes.
When you move into a college campus in June and are playing nationally televised games five months later, there's not much time for a group full of freshmen to gel as a cohesive defensive unit. The offensive side of the ball transfers more quickly; running and jumping, shooting and passing are things these players have excelled at since they were in elementary school. But learning to play man-to-man defense, to defend pick-and-rolls, to help the helper: These are the more cerebral part of basketball. They take time.
And Duke no longer has time.
Back in the day, Coach K could take a player like Bobby Hurley or Steve Wojciechowski, season them for years in his defensive system, and by the time they are upperclassmen, unleash a pesky defensive monster.
The team that won the title in 2010 was just that: Senior point guard Jon Scheyer harassed opponents on the perimeter. Senior big man Brian Zoubek blocked shots and corralled rebounds as well as anyone in college hoops. More than that, they played team defense, holding opponents to the second-lowest 3-point percentage in college basketball and ranking fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency.
What's been the No. 1 problem plaguing Duke teams since then, as they have skewed younger and younger? Defense. No Duke team since 2010 has ranked that high in defensive efficiency. The team that lost to Lehigh in the first round of the 2012 NCAA Tournament ranked 79th in defensive efficiency; the team that lost in the first round to Mercer in the 2014 NCAA tournament ranked 86th. The Jahlil Okafor/Tyus Jones/Justise Winslow team ended up winning a title, but focusing on that title can obscure the fact that team was a defensive disaster halfway through the season, hitting its nadir when Duke gave up 90 points in a January home loss to Miami.
This season? With those four supremely talented freshman starting, Duke can score in bunches, and more effectively than any team but one in the sport; its 126.2 offensive rating ranks behind only Villanova. When Duke flips the switch on offense, no one in the nation is stopping the Blue Devils. But defense is again Duke's Achilles heel. In defensive efficiency, Duke ranks only 73rd. It rarely creates turnovers. It defends 3-pointers at a mediocre rate, giving up way too many open shots beyond the arc.
The difference between Calipari's freshman-filled teams and Coach K's freshman-filled teams is that the two coaches have traditionally sought different types of one-and-done players. Coach Cal skews toward length and athleticism, which naturally gives his teams a leg up on the defensive end. Coach K leans toward skill players, which helps his team on the offensive end. Remarkably, Duke has not finished outside the top 10 in offensive efficiency in the past decade.
All of this will come into stark relief this weekend when No. 4 Duke plays host to No. 2 Virginia at 2 p.m. ET Saturday on CBS. While Duke's talented group of freshmen are out there playing jazz, Virginia's more experienced group is like a marching band, all in lockstep. Tony Bennett's pack-line defense has been the most remarkably consistent defensive system in college basketball this decade. Virginia was unranked in the beginning of the season, but that defense has been choking out its opponents to the tune of a 81.5 defensive efficiency rating, the best in college hoops this season. If Virginia keeps up that pace until the end of the season, it will be the best defensive rating ever recorded on KenPom.com. This week, a ranked Clemson team scored 36 points in a loss to Virginia. The most points Virginia has allowed all season was 68 in a road loss to West Virginia, its only loss of the season.
I'm not sure if we could have a more direct clash of styles of college basketball than what we'll see this weekend: The best offensive team against the best defensive team. A team with one of the sport's fastest tempos (Duke) against a team with the sport's slowest tempo (Virginia). A team filled with future NBA players versus a team that may not have a single player who is drafted. A group of incredibly talented individuals who are trying to learn a system against an incredibly effective system that can take less talented individuals and turn them into winners.
They say defense wins championships. It's possible that Duke could win a championship with its current lackluster defense; that's how talented this starting five is on offense when they want to be. But I wouldn't bet on it. If Duke wants to be cutting down the nets in April, these freshmen should look at the defensive juggernaut they are playing in January and start taking notes.
