Peach Bowl 2016 first look: Washington may crack the code and upset Alabama
No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 Washington will meet in Atlanta in a College Football Playoff semifinal
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5 min read
The College Football Playoff is set as the Pac-12 champion Washington Huskies earned the fourth seed and the task of trying to take down No. 1 Alabama in the Peach Bowl on Dec. 31 in Atlanta.
Alabama will make the short drive over to Atlanta for the second time in a month after dominating Florida 54-16 at the Georgia Dome in the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide (13-0) are the lone unbeaten Power Five team in the nation and open as an 11-point favorite.
Washington is coming off a dominant performance of its own in the Pac-12 title game as it took down No. 8 Colorado 41-10 to lock up its playoff berth. The Huskies have a strong passing attack, and if there has been one thing you could call a weakness on the Alabama defense this season, it has been defending the deep ball.
Players to watch
Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama: Allen is the best player on the loaded Alabama defense and he will give the Washington offensive line fits trying to keep Washington quarterback Jake Browning clean in the pocket. In Washington's lone loss, USC's defense made Browning look as uncomfortable as he has been all season and forced him into his worst passing performance of the year with two interceptions and a 45.9 percent completion percentage.
Allen is the ring leader of the Alabama pass rush that features other fearsome edge rushers, but no one on the Tide's defense applies pressure more consistently and on all downs than Allen. Alabama's secondary is the best in the nation at turning interceptions into points, but often times the cause of those interceptions is Allen and company harassing the quarterback into poor decisions or off balance throws. If Allen is touching up Browning on a regular basis, Washington's ability in the deep passing game will be negated, taking away their best offensive advantage against the Tide.
John Ross, WR, Washington: When you look at the Washington deep passing game, the guy that pops off the screen is Ross on the outside. He's the Huskies' leading receiver and has big play potential every time he takes off on a vertical route.
The Ole Miss game plan remains the most effective one we've seen this season against Alabama. The Rebels consistently looked to take the top off the Alabama defense and did so effectively to the tune of 421 yards through the air and 10.5 yards per attempt. The Tide have yet to give up anything close to that since through the air, but they have also not faced a quarterback close to as talented at pushing the ball downfield as Chad Kelly or with receivers like the Rebels.
Washington has that in Browning, Ross and Dante Pettis. Ross is the main target of Browning and has gained 14.8 yards per reception as the Huskies' leading receiver. Against a defense that is nearly impossible to move the ball methodically against, chunk plays are necessary and few receivers in the country are more dangerous than Ross at getting over the top of the defense.
Key stats
What does the raw statistical data say about how close these two teams are? Here's a look at where Alabama and Washington rank nationally in key statistical categories on offense and defense.
| Category | Alabama (national rank) | Washington (national rank) |
| Scoring offense | 40.5 ppg (13th) | 44.5 ppg (4th) |
| Scoring defense | 11.8 ppg (1st) | 17.2 ppg (8th) |
| Rushing offense | 245.0 ypg (14th) | 210.0 ypg (36th) |
| Rushing defense | 63.4 ypg (1st) | 123.5 ypg (17th) |
| Passing offense | 226.3 ypg (68th) | 267.2 ypg (31st) |
| Passing defense | 184.5 ypg (15th) | 192.6 ypg (22nd) |
| Turnover margin | +5 (36th) | +21 (1st) |
How each team can win
Alabama: The Tide win this game by doing what they've done all season long, which is stop the run, pressure the quarterback and eventually wear the opposing defense down with the running game. Alabama does not panic if it falls behind early because the Tide play the long game. They're betting that you can't execute your game plan as well as they can execute theirs for 60 minutes, and in 13 games this season -- and 25 straight overall -- they have been right.
The one thing Alabama does need to be better about in the Peach Bowl is ball security. Washington is the best team in the nation at forcing turnovers and Alabama has given the ball away 19 times this season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has to protect the football and keep from giving Washington's offense a short field, because this defense feasts on mistakes made down the field.
If Alabama protects the ball to a reasonable degree and the defensive front pressures Browning and stops the run as it has to opponents all season, then the Tide should be rolling into Tampa.
Washington: The Huskies have the traits needed to upset Alabama, but must execute flawlessly for the entire game. They have to turn Alabama over and hold onto the ball themselves, something the Huskies have been fantastic at this season; they lead the nation in turnover margin. Against USC, arguably the best team it has faced, Washington gave it away as often as it took it away (two interceptions on both sides) and lost the game. Against Alabama, the defense giving the offense short fields by way of turnover will be important, while the offense can't let the Tide get points on defense.
Turning Alabama over isn't enough, though. The Tide lost the turnover battle five times this season and won each of those games by at least 18 points. Washington has to execute in the passing game, especially in the intermediate and deep passing zones, to upset the Tide. Alabama's secondary will give you opportunities to make big plays, but to take advantage of those chances, everyone has to execute.
The offensive line has to protect Browning well enough to have time to step into throws and deliver the ball on time with pace. Browning has to make his reads quickly and deliver the ball on time and on target -- underthrows or missed windows usually lead to incompletions at best or turnovers at worst -- and receivers have to run sharp routes and drops on open passes can't be afforded.
In short, Washington's margin for error is extremely slim, but this isn't an impossible task for the Huskies. Improbable? Yes, but Washington has a defense that can keep it in this game and it will come down to whether the offense can do what almost no one else has this season, which is finish drives with touchdowns and not turn it over.
