2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Drafting in NL-only leagues — what you need to know
There are consequences to cutting the player pool in half. Scott White examines them for the NL.
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Most Fantasy Baseball advice is geared toward mixed leagues, and it's no secret why. Most Fantasy Baseball owners play in mixed leagues — an overwhelming majority, in fact.
But let's say you don't. You're such a traditionalist that you like to split the player pool in two to ensure no one has a team full of All-Stars.
I dig. No judgment here.
In fact, it's high time we threw you a bone, giving you a little primer on how things deviate from all that mixed-league advice you've been reading. Because of course, it's not quite as simple as cutting the player pool in two. Scarcities are created unevenly across positions and across categories.
This column is intended to highlight those scarcities, in this case for an NL-only league.
Which positions become scarcer in an NL-only league?
Honestly, not a one. The NL so thoroughly dominates the AL in the mixed-league top 300 that it's deeper or as deep at every position, at least among the names most likely to form your starting lineup.
Where it's lacking is at the tip top and the lower end. You should still expect to pay a premium for a true ace, even if the middle tier at starting pitcher is more plentiful, and depth could become an issue. You may have a hard time filling out a standard Rotisserie lineup, which requires a third middle infielder, a third corner infielder and five outfielders. You may have trouble finding just three outfielders who are clearly in line for everyday at-bats, but then, the same is true for the AL.
Meanwhile, six of my top seven catchers are in the NL, as well as seven of my top eight first basemen, seven of my top 10 second basemen, 10 of my top 13 third basemen and five of my top nine shortstops. Position scarcity isn't really a thing in the NL, not to nearly the extent it is in the AL.
Which statistics become scarcer in an NL-only league?
Steals — oh wow, is it steals. If the NL player pool has one festering wart, this is it. And the crazy part is it defies all tradition.
Check it out, though: Of the five players we Fantasy owners are counting on for steals in the first round, four — all but Trea Turner — are in the AL (Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez and Jose Altuve being the others). Traditional steals specialists like Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton are now in the AL. The only other 40-steal guys other than Turner last year, Whit Merrifield and Mallex Smith, are both in the AL. The presumed leader in steals this year based on what he did for half a season last year, Adalberto Mondesi, is also in the AL. Jonathan Villar, Greg Allen ... the list goes on and on.
What does the NL have other than Turner? Starling Marte is about the only other surefire 30-steal guy. Possibly Lorenzo Cain. Maybe Ronald Acuna steps up. Perhaps Christian Yelich, Javier Baez and Trevor Story will come through with 20-plus again, but you're obviously paying a premium for them. And again, we're only asking for 20 steals at that point.
If you don't get Turner or Marte — or maybe Garrett Hampson, if he wins an everyday job with the Rockies — you're going the patchwork route with stolen bases, scraping and clawing your way to a respectable total. That's just the way it is.
Strikeouts are a little harder to come by in the NL just because more of the high-end pitchers are in the AL. It possibly elevates Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Patrick Corbin, Aaron Nola and maybe even German Marquez a little more than in a mixed league. Only six of the 19 pitchers with 200-plus strikeouts last year came from the NL.
And of course, saves are always scarce in league-specific formats, because while having 30 potential sources offers enough to go around in a mixed league, 15 could get you shut out pretty easily. And in today's environment, where fewer managers are anointing true closers, it's actually fewer than 15.
As with the AL, I count only seven relievers who we can trust as dedicated closers: Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, Sean Doolittle, Felipe Vazquez, Kirby Yates, Wade Davis and Raisel Iglesias. But unlike in the AL, there are some relievers who appear fairly promising otherwise, such as Jordan Hicks, Will Smith, David Robertson, Arodys Vizcaino, Corey Knebel, Archie Bradley and Pedro Strop, at least for however long Brandon Morrow is sidelined. So yeah, saves are a priority, but you do have quite a few fallback options.
What's an advisable strategy for an NL-only league?
Get an ace with one of your first two picks — not both, just one will give you a healthy advantage and allow you to make the most of one of the few scarcities in the format. And particularly in a Rotisserie league, you don't want to go overboard for pitching thereafter. Maybe spend for a couple mid-range arms but trust that the depth will be there later.
It won't necessarily be there for hitters, so capitalize on all that depth at the top of those positions and ensure you're not the one getting left out anywhere. Understand that just because the NL is deeper at every position doesn't mean there are enough quality options to go around in a 12-team or even a 10-team league. This is especially true at catcher. Beyond that, prioritize outfield when in doubt, because as much as we all love Franmil Reyes, you don't want to wind up with him as your No. 2, not with all of his playing time concerns.
Make a point to feed your steals total constantly. It's a piece of advice that only applies for categories leagues, such as standard Rotisserie, but it must be said. Getting one of Turner or Marte will take some of the pressure off, but if not, you should probably aim to draft at least three 20-steal hopefuls at whatever positions make the most sense. Probably outfield.
Try for one of the seven declared closers. Getting a second from the "hopeful" tier shouldn't be too much of a strain either. Winding up with two hopefuls, though, wouldn't be the end of the world since they all seem like front-runners at this point. If one of them blows up in your face, hey, at you had the good sense to hedge your bet.
So how do you crush your 2019 Fantasy baseball drafts? And which can't-miss prospect needs to be on your roster? Visit SportsLine now to get the complete 2019 Fantasy baseball draft guide that includes rankings, auction values, tiers, prospects rankings and much more, all from a team of award-wining experts and a proven projection model.
















