Prospects Report: Trial by fire in Baltimore
The Orioles wasted little time bringing their top two pitching prospects to the big leagues. Our Eric Mack advises you on which one you should have in Fantasy for the remainder of the season and touches on other hot minor leaguers in his latest Prospects Report.
By
Eric Mack
•
9 min read
Sometimes, in an effort to stay ahead of the curve, you can make a sweeping judgment that might make you look bad. There is always an opportunity to backpedal or just change your mind.
That's the course we will take with the ranking of the Orioles pitching prospects -- a reversal.
We have thought the power arm of Chris Tillman, 21, was going to be the Orioles starting pitching prospect to have in Fantasy. He is potentially great, mind you, but lefty Brian Matusz, 22, is the pick now.
Yes, we are making another sweeping judgment based on one week's experience in the major leagues.
Going into the season, we couldn't be sure of how good Matusz could be. He had no pro experience. In his first pro season, though, he has been overwhelming. It took only four months to reach the major leagues and dazzle.
Matusz, the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft, was 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA for Double-A Bowie before winning his debut against the contending Tigers on Tuesday. The next Cole Hamels is soaring into Fantasy prominence and is dramatically underowned at just 33 percent on CBSSports.com. He was owned in only 14 percent of leagues and starting in only 3 percent before winning his debut and audition for a future ace to the nation.
By comparison, Tillman is younger but more experienced, going 8-6 with a 2.71 ERA and 99 strikeouts in Triple-A -- a level Matusz never needed. Tillman's first two starts for the Orioles have flashed promise, but have been less productive for Fantasy owners (a 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP).
We want to stress, though, it is not the first starts that changed our mind to say Matusz is the future O's ace over Tillman. It is the body of work, and we finally have one on the first-year pro.
The Aug. 1 elite pitching prospects don't end with those two O's. Here is how we would rank them for the rest of this season:
- Matusz, Orioles (33 percent owned)
- Bud Norris, Astros (30 percent owned)
- Chris Tillman, Orioles (36 percent owned)
- Mat Latos, Padres (68 percent owned)
- Neftali Feliz, Rangers (21 percent owned)
As you can see by those rankings and their respective ownership, we have buried the significant point: Norris is the best buy among the recent call-ups. He has the best winning situation for Fantasy owners down the stretch, even if he isn't the best talent long term.
Latos' high ownership shows Fantasy loves to follow the past. They need to jump ahead of the curve and predict the future with us. Latos pitches for the lowly Padres; Matusz and Tillman pitch for the lowly Orioles; Feliz is stuck in middle relief and not yet a candidate to start or close. Norris is the man to buy now in mixed formats.
The results will catch up -- then his ownership. Don't miss the boat.
With all this said: Here is how we would rank them long term as Fantasy prospects:
- Matusz, front-line ace an annual Cy Young candidate
- Feliz, flamethower/strikeout champ
- Tillman, the Matt Cain if Matusz is Lincecum
- Latos, a Jake Peavy (an ace on a perennial whipping boy)
- Norris, a Roy Oswalt (a steady ace that doesn't stand out in any one category, but is good in many)
Discouraged you missed out on all five of these gems? Go pick up Madison Bumgarner immediately. The Giants' 20-year-old Double-A phenom is better than all of these guys both short and long term ... just to keep you ahead of the curve.
Prospect watch
Every week we break down all the minor leaguers who are owned in at least 1 percent of our Fantasy leagues. This will be your essential guide to unearthing the elite prospects before they hit the big time.
Rookie watch
Top AL rookies to date
- Gordon Beckham, 3B, CHW -- He leads all AL rookies with 38 RBI in what amounts to exactly 1/3 of a season. That's some pace.
- Jeff Niemann, SP, TB -- We give him the nod over the other 10-win AL Rookie starters, but it will be a good race.
- Ricky Romero, SP, TOR -- Romero's numbers would be better if he didn't need Triple-A and DL stints early this season.
- Rick Porcello, SP, DET -- Porcello is younger and on the best contender of the bunch, but his numbers aren't quite as good.
- Nolan Reimold, OF, BAL -- He still has more homers and runs scored than Beckham, but the gap will be closed and lapped soon.
- Honorable mentions: Andrew Bailey, RP, OAK; Brian Matusz, SP, BAL; Matt Wieters, C, BAL; Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX; Brad Bergesen, SP, BAL; Brett Anderson, SP, OAK; Matt Palmer, RP, LAA; Scott Richmond, SP, TOR; and Chris Getz, 2B, CHW.
Top NL rookies to date
- J.A. Happ, SP, PHI -- He earned his rotation spot indefinitely (even amid Pedro Martinez's return) with a CG shutout.
- Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL -- He would have to be ranked ahead of all those pitching prospects above, but he arrived far sooner.
- Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT -- The talent was always widely reported, but who could have seen the power come this quickly?
- Garrett Jones, OF, PIT -- His power surge was pretty surprising, but solo homers can only do so much damage.
- Randy Wells, SP, CHC -- He has been lights out for the Cubs and is in no danger of losing his rotation spot now.
- Honorable mentions: Casey McGehee, 3B, MIL; Gerardo Parra, OF, ARI; Colby Rasmus, OF, STL; Omir Santos, C, NYM; Will Venable, OF, SD; Chris Coghlan, OF, FLA; Dexter Fowler, OF, COL; Jake Fox, C, CHC; Dan L. Meyer, RP, FLA; Mat Latos, SP, SD; Bobby Parnell, RP, NYM; Micah Hoffpauir, OF, CHC; Travis Ishikawa, 1B, SF; Kyle Blanks, OF, SD; and Kenshin Kawakami, SP, ATL
You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Prospects in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.
