Week 9 Pitching Forecaster
The two-start pitching options for Week 9 are bountiful, but you'll still have to make smart decisions. Al Melchior gives you hand with his pitching forecaster.
In Fantasy Week 9 (May 27-June 2), every team in the majors plays seven games. That jammed-packed schedule creates a bonanza of two-start options for Fantasy owners. That means your league's waiver wire is probably ripe with two-start pitchers ready for the taking, but be sure you choose wisely. Your rivals have the same bounty from which to pick, and those who make the best selections will be rewarded when the week reaches its conclusion.
One pitcher not included among the two-start options is Jered Weaver (elbow). Though a few days ago, it appeared the Angels' ace could return from the 15-day disabled list as soon as Monday, he is now slated for a Wednesday start against the Dodgers. Even though Weaver is making just the one start in Week 9, he needs to be activated in all formats.
Owners in deeper leagues may want to take a flyer on Michael Kickham, who was chosen to take over Ryan Vogelsong's (hand) spot in the Giants' rotation. Kickham could pay some immediate dividends, as he debuts with a two-start week, facing the Athletics and Cardinals on the road.
Kickham doesn't profile to be good enough to make the cut in standard mixed leagues this week, especially with so many options, but each of the 70 starters listed below is a reasonably safe play for your active roster in those formats. Further below, I'll sort out all of the borderline two-start options.
Monday update: Kickham may not be the only prospect to make his big league debut this week, as the Cardinals are considering Michael Wacha to start Thursday against the Royals. According to MLB.com, swingman Joe Kelly and minor leaguer Maikel Cleto are also in contention to fill in for the injured John Gast (shoulder), who was placed on the 15-day disabled list.
Despite injuries, Clay Buchholz (collarbone) and Ian Kennedy (finger) are both expected to make starts later this week, though both will miss out on a two-start week. As a result of losing a start, Buchholz has been dropped from No. 21 to No. 44 in this week's rankings, while Kennedy has been left off the top 70 altogether.
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| Rank | Player | Start 1 | Start 2 | |
| 1 | Adam Wainwright | @KC (Shields) | SF (Bumgarner) | |
| 2 | Cliff Lee | @BOS (Dempster) | MIL (Figaro) | |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | PIT (Liriano) | @BAL (Hammel) | |
| 4 | Yu Darvish | @ARI (Cahill) | KC (Santana) | |
| 5 | Mat Latos | CLE (McAllister) | @PIT (Gomez) | |
| 6 | Chris Sale | CHC (Jackson) | @OAK (Parker) | |
| 7 | Madison Bumgarner | @OAK (Straily) | @STL (Wainwright) | |
| 8 | Matt Harvey | NYY (Kuroda) | @MIA (Slowey) | |
| 9 | Felix Hernandez | @SD (Cashner) | N/A | |
| 10 | Stephen Strasburg | @ATL (Teheran) | N/A | |
| 11 | Clayton Kershaw | @COL (Garland) | N/A | |
| 12 | Matt Moore | @MIA (Nolasco) | N/A | |
| 13 | James Shields | STL (Wainwright) | @TEX (Perez) | |
| 14 | Zack Greinke | LAA (Wilson) | @COL (Chacin) | |
| 15 | Cole Hamels | MIL (Gallardo) | N/A | |
| 16 | Jake Peavy | @CHC (Wood) | N/A | |
| 17 | Matt Cain | @STL (Miller) | N/A | |
| 18 | Max Scherzer | @BAL (Gonzalez) | N/A | |
| 19 | Jeff Samardzija | @CHW (Quintana) | ARI (Corbin) | |
| 20 | Gio Gonzalez | BAL (Hammel) | @ATL (Hudson) | |
| 21 | Johnny Cueto | @PIT (Rodriguez) | N/A | |
| 22 | Anibal Sanchez | @PIT (Burnett) | N/A | |
| 23 | Jered Weaver | LAD (Capuano) | N/A | |
| 24 | Hisashi Iwakuma | @MIN (Pelfrey) | N/A | |
| 25 | CC Sabathia | BOS (Doubront) | N/A | |
| 26 | Doug Fister | @PIT (Locke) | N/A | |
| 27 | Jordan Zimmermann | @BAL (Tillman) | N/A | |
| 28 | Jon Lester | @PHI (Pettibone) | N/A | |
| 29 | Shelby Miller | SF (Cain) | N/A | |
| 30 | C.J. Wilson | @LAD (Greinke) | HOU (Norris) | |
| 31 | R.A. Dickey | @ATL (Minor) | N/A | |
| 32 | A.J. Burnett | DET (Sanchez) | N/A | |
| 33 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAA (Blanton) | @COL (De La Rosa) | |
| 34 | Hiroki Kuroda | @NYM (Harvey) | BOS (Dempster) | |
| 35 | Paul Maholm | @TOR (Morrow) | WAS (Duke) | |
| 36 | A.J. Griffin | @SF (Zito) | N/A | |
| 37 | Lance Lynn | KC (Mendoza) | N/A | |
| 38 | Trevor Cahill | TEX (Darvish) | @CHC (Jackson) | |
| 39 | Patrick Corbin | @CHC (Samardzija) | N/A | |
| 40 | Alex Cobb | @CLE (Kluber) | N/A | |
| 41 | Ryan Dempster | PHI (Lee) | @NYY (Kuroda) | |
| 42 | Kris Medlen | TOR (Rogers) | N/A | |
| 43 | Jose Fernandez | @TB (Odorizzi) | NYM (Niese) | |
| 44 | Clay Buchholz | @NYY (Hughes) | N/A | |
| 45 | Justin Masterson | CIN (Arroyo) | N/A | |
| 46 | Mike Minor | TOR (Dickey) | N/A | |
| 47 | Kevin Gausman | @WAS (Duke) | DET (Porcello) | |
| 48 | Homer Bailey | @CLE (Kazmir) | N/A | |
| 49 | Francisco Liriano | @DET (Verlander) | CIN (Leake) | |
| 50 | Marco Estrada | @MIN (Deduno) | N/A | |
| 51 | Tim Hudson | @TOR (Buehrle) | WAS (Gonzalez) | |
| 52 | Tommy Milone | @SF (Lincecum) | N/A | |
| 53 | Jonathon Niese | NYY (Hughes) | @MIA (Fernandez) | |
| 54 | Jarrod Parker | SF (Kickham) | CHW (Sale) | |
| 55 | Dan Straily | SF (Bumgarner) | CHW (Quintana) | |
| 56 | Brandon Morrow | ATL (Maholm) | @SD (Volquez) | |
| 57 | Jake Odorizzi | MIA (Fernandez) | @CLE (Jimenez) | |
| 58 | Shaun Marcum | @MIA (Eovaldi) | N/A | |
| 59 | Ervin Santana | STL (Lyons) | @TEX (Darvish) | |
| 60 | Matt Garza | ARI (Kennedy) | N/A | |
| 61 | Jose Quintana | CHC (Samardzija) | @OAK (Straily) | |
| 62 | Derek Holland | ARI (Miley) | N/A | |
| 63 | Phil Hughes | @NYM (Niese) | BOS (Buchholz) | |
| 64 | Yovani Gallardo | @PHI (Hamels) | N/A | |
| 65 | Travis Wood | CHW (Peavy) | N/A | |
| 66 | Andrew Cashner | SEA (Hernandez) | N/A | |
| 67 | Wade Miley | @TEX (Holland) | N/A | |
| 68 | Bartolo Colon | CHW (Axelrod) | N/A | |
| 69 | Mike Leake | CLE (Jimenez) | @PIT (Liriano) | |
| 70 | Dan Haren | @BAL (Garcia) | N/A | |
Two-Start Options to Consider
Trevor Cahill, Diamondbacks (TEX, @CHC): Though Cahill's
ERA is nearly a run lower than last season's, he continues to plateau
skill-wise. He's actually getting fewer strikeouts and grounders so far
this year, but he's getting help from a high strand rate and double play
balls. At least he can count on the latter as well as his ability to
avoid home runs. While Cahill may not provide many Ks, he should help
your team's ERA and WHIP enough to be worth using in this two-start week.
This
week's rank: 38
My take: Solid standard mixed league start.
Ryan Dempster, Red Sox (PHI, @NYY): What started off as a
dream season for Dempster has suddenly turned sour, as he has allowed 15
earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts. To be sure,
Dempster has struggled with command, but he's also fallen victim to a
.395 BABIP during his slump. He may never have another stretch of starts
as dominant as his first seven from this season, but he's also not
nearly as bad as he's been lately. Anyone can be off their game for
three starts (see Justin Verlander), so
Dempster deserves some slack from Fantasy owners this week.
This
week's rank: 41
My take: Solid standard mixed league start.
Jose Fernandez, Marlins (@TB, NYM): Fantasy owners can't
count on the Marlins to provide Fernandez with run support, but he's
still been good enough to eek out a 2-2 record so far. He's also been
efficient enough to last six innings or more on a pitch count. Fernandez
has been solid in four May starts with a 2.16 ERA. Even taking favorable
strand and BABIP rates into account, xFIP projects that a luck-free
Fernandez would have a 3.47 ERA for the month, according to
FanGraphs.com. Keep him active.
This week's rank: 43
My
take: Solid standard mixed league start.
Kevin Gausman, Orioles (@WAS, DET): Gausman's stat line
from his major league debut against Toronto didn't look impressive, as
he allowed four runs over just five innings, but he was solid through
the first three innings. With someone as inexperienced at any
professional level as Gausman is, there is substantial risk, but with
his talent, he should be trusted over steadier types further down the
rankings, like Tim Hudson and Jose Quintana.
This week's rank: 47
My take:
Solid standard mixed league start.
Francisco Liriano, Pirates (@DET, CIN): Liriano has
prospered in each of his first three starts, and his 18 percent swinging
strike rate is insane. Still, he has posted exceedingly high whiff rates
in each of the last two seasons, and in both cases, he finished with an
ERA north of 5.00. It's also impressive that Liriano has allowed only
one extra base hit -- a double by Ruben Tejada
-- but the Tigers and Reds could pose a stiffer challenge than the Mets,
Brewers and Cubs. Despite his torrid start, Liriano is not a lock for a
big week.
This week's rank: 49
My take: Marginal
standard mixed league start.
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| Player | % change | |
| 1. | Kevin Gausman, SP, Orioles | 58 |
| 2. | Dan Straily, SP, Athletics | 24 |
| 3. | Tyler Lyons, SP, Cardinals | 22 |
| 4. | Mike Leake, SP, Reds | 18 |
| 5. | Jose Quintana, SP, White Sox | 17 |
| 6. | Michael Wacha, SP, Cardinals | 15 |
| 7. | John Lackey, SP, Red Sox | 14 |
| 8. | Francisco Liriano, SP, Pirates | 12 |
| 9. | Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets | 11 |
| 10. | Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Rockies | 10 |
Tim Hudson, Braves (@TOR, WAS): Hudson's key peripherals,
such as his strikeout, whiff, walk and ground ball rates, are about
where they were two seasons ago, but his ERA is the better part of two
runs higher. Blame his 62 percent strand rate, which is completely out
of character. Though Hudson has been less than impressive in his last
three starts, he is a reasonable use of a rotation spot this time.
This
week's rank: 51
My take: Marginal standard mixed league
start.
Jonathon Niese, Mets (NYY, @MIA): Niese has rediscovered
his command in his last two starts, and even during his more difficult
stretch, he was getting grounders at a healthy rate. In subduing the
Cardinals and Reds, Niese showed he can handle a tough matchup, so
owners shouldn't fear starting him against the Yankees. Or the Marlins.
This
week's rank: 53
My take: Marginal standard mixed league
start.
Jarrod Parker, Athletics (SF, CHW): After a miserable first
month, Parker has started to turn his season around. While his control
hasn't been pristine, he has been throwing more strikes and, at least in
his last two starts, issuing fewer walks. Parker has had difficulty
finding consistency in his young major league career, but given his
recent improvement and that he gets to make two starts in Oakland
(career 3.47 home ERA) this week, he could be surprisingly helpful to
standard mixed league owners.
This week's rank: 54
My
take: Marginal standard mixed league start.
Dan Straily, Athletics (SF, CHW):
This week's rank:
As with Parker, most of Straily's 2013 starts have hurt his Fantasy
owners, but both last year and this year, he has been brilliant at
times. Using Straily right now is not for the faint of heart, but the
remaining options on the list are either similarly inconsistent or offer
far less upside. If you need reassurance that it won't be too risky to
take the plunge, Straily's biggest problem has not been his occasional
wildness or difficulties against lefties, but rather a 51 percent strand
rate that is sure to improve.
This week's rank: 55
My
take: Marginal standard mixed league start.
Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays (ATL, @SD): In his first three
seasons as a full-time starter, Morrow had done a decent job of getting
hitters to chase after pitches outside the strike zone, but not this
year. According to FanGraphs.com, only David Phelps and Jason Marquis have
induced swings at balls at a lower rate than Morrow. Based on this
year's stats alone, Morrow should not be in this week's top 70, but with
the hope that he can rediscover his prior form, owners lacking better
options can give him the nod over similarly risky alternatives.
This
week's rank: 56
My take: Marginal standard mixed league
start.
Jake Odorizzi, Rays (MIA, @CLE): Odorizzi had a decent Rays
debut against the Blue Jays, though he didn't last long and induced a
grand total of four ground balls. His flyball tendencies shouldn't be a
problem against the Marlins, but it could make for an unpleasant outing
in Cleveland. Though he brings some risk to the table, Odorizzi needs to
be owned in far more than 42 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com for
his two-start week.
This week's rank: 57
My take:
Marginal standard mixed league start.
Ervin Santana, Royals (STL, @TEX): Like Odorizzi, Santana
can be susceptible to homers, as he showed on Thursday, when the Angels
went yard four times. The Cardinals have been surprisingly devoid of
power, but they can still be a dangerous matchup, and, so of course, are
the Rangers. With so many two-start options from which to choose, you
may actually benefit from benching Santana this week.
This week's
rank: 59
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start.
Jose Quintana, White Sox (CHC, @OAK): There's not much
that's extraordinary about Quintana's skill profile, but there are few
red flags. Probably the biggest knock against Quintana is that he is
inefficient, averaging more than 4.1 pitches per plate appearance, but
that's less of a concern when he gets two chances in a week to pile up
innings. Better yet, Quintana's matchups shouldn't be a problem. The
Cubs don't score much, and while the Athletics are more potent, Quintana
generally fares well on the road.
This week's rank: 61
My
take: Marginal standard mixed league start.
Phil Hughes, Yankees (@NYM, BOS): With a 5.51 ERA and 1.50
WHIP, Hughes looks like someone to avoid in standard mixed leagues under
all circumstances, but along with some horrible starts have been several
good ones. Two of his poor starts came early, but he has rattled off
five quality starts in his last seven outings. It's hard to predict when
Hughes might implode, but his upside is high enough to make him worth a
gamble with your final rotation spot.
This week's rank: 63
My
take: Marginal standard mixed league start.
Mike Leake, Reds (CLE, @PIT): Leake has been in a groove,
posting a 2.28 ERA over his last seven starts, and he has not allowed
either of his two most recent opponents -- the Mets and Marlins -- to
score. He has been even better than usual at avoiding walks, issuing
only nine of them over a 43 1/3 inning span, and the Pirates should play
right into Leake's strength. The Indians are more selective and simply
have the most potent lineup he's seen in awhile, so Leake's recent run
could reach its end in Week 9.
This week's rank: 69
My
take: Marginal standard mixed league start.
Jeremy Hellickson, Rays (MIA, @CLE):
This week's rank:
Hellickson is set for a week of extremes, as he will face the best- and
worst-hitting teams in the majors in terms of extra-base power. He
should have no problems handling the Marlins, but the Indians present a
potential nightmare. Hellickson has been getting clobbered by lefties,
and not only could Jason Kipnis and
switch-hitting Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera present a threat, but they'll be hitting at Progressive
Field, which favors left-handed batters.
This week's rank: N/A
My
take: Deeper mixed league start.
Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies (@HOU, LAD): Getting strikeouts
had been De La Rosa's forte prior to getting Tommy John surgery, but
they've been lacking since his return late last season. De La Rosa has
yet to regain his former velocity, but despite the lack of firepower,
he's been thriving with a 3.40 ERA. It's helped that he has allowed only
four home runs in 55 2/3 innings, but that's not likely to last with a
mediocre ground ball rate and a schedule loaded with starts at Coors
Field. Though his matchups aren't bad, you can find many superior
options in standard mixed leagues this week.
This week's rank:
N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start.
Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians (@CIN, TB): Jimenez still lacks
consistency, but he's getting strikeouts again, so he's worth keeping on
your radar. Given that home runs have been a big part of Jimenez's
problem, a start at Cincinnati doesn't bode well for a good week. Don't
use him in this two-start week, but Jimenez could be worth streaming in
future scoring periods.
This week's rank: N/A
My take:
Deeper mixed league start.
Jason Hammel, Orioles (@WAS, DET): In holding the Yankees
to two runs in 6 2/3 innings Wednesday, Hammel got his first quality
start in his last five attempts. Hammel has been getting strikeouts
lately, but he's been getting too few grounders and allowing too many
extra-base hits. If Hammel can reestablish last season's high grounder
rate, he'll be worth starting, but until then, he should be sat in mixed
leagues.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: AL-only
start.
Zach McAllister, Indians (@CIN, TB): A 2.89 ERA has helped
McAllister win roster spots in 57 percent of the leagues on
CBSSports.com, but once an unsustainable 82 percent strand rate recedes,
he'll be letting down the many owners in deeper mixed leagues who are
starting him. Beat the rush to bench or drop him in those formats. With
a start in Cincinnati this week, he has no business being on virtually
any mixed league active roster.
This week's rank: N/A
My
take: AL-only start.
Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies (@HOU, LAD): Chacin's April, during
which he posted a 1.46 ERA, was a BABIP-induced mirage, and he's had his
comeuppance in May. His current 4.10 ERA is about where owners should
expect it to remain, and since Chacin doesn't get many
swings-and-misses, he shouldn't be much of a help with strikeouts. Even
with decent matchups, he's best reserved for NL-only leagues.
This
week's rank: N/A
My take: NL-only start.
Rick Porcello, Tigers (PIT, @BAL): With the next home run
that Porcello allows, he will already be halfway to last season's total
of 16. It's highly unlike Porcello to be so homer-prone, and at least in
that regard, he should show improvement in the weeks to come. Given that
Porcello consistently allows too much contact, too many hits on balls in
play and too many baserunners to score, whatever windfall he gets from a
lower home run rate won't be enough to make him a viable starter in
mixed leagues.
This week's rank: N/A
My take:
AL-only start.
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .















