2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Who should I take at No. 2 overall in non-PPR?
Heath Cummings doesn't mind zero-RB, but if you draw the No. 2 pick you'd better be ready to draft some running backs.
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4 min read
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Editor's note: Our latest PPR pick-by-pick series was done in August prior to the third preseason game and is a three-man draft with Heath Cummings, Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard, with each one selecting four teams in this 12-team mock. The goal of this series is to show you positions to draft in these spots as much as the players selected, so take that into account when viewing each team.
Building a team from every draft slot in PPR and non-PPR
As much as I've talked about the value of elite receivers this year in Fantasy Football, there's one thing I won't dispute: If you have a top-three pick you should be taking a running back. Whether it's Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell or maybe even David Johnson, you just can't turn down the likelihood of 330-plus touches and double-digit touchdowns.
The other thing I've noticed about having one of those top-three picks is that I'm very likely to take another running back with one of my next two picks. The way most drafts seem to be working is that all of the elite running backs are taken in the first 15 picks and then there's a run of people scooping up the elite receivers. If T.Y. Hilton falls, then I'm thrilled to land him but if not I'm increasingly likely to start with two running backs and a tight end, which is exactly what happened in this draft.
Here's my team from No. 2 overall:
- 1.2 Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL
- 2.11 Travis Kelce, TE, KC
- 3.2 Jordan Howard, RB, CHI
- 4.11 JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, PIT
- 5.2 Mark Ingram, RB, NO
- 6.11 Robby Anderson, WR, NYJ
- 7.2 Kenny Stills, WR, MIA
- 8.11 Robert Woods, WR, LAR
- 9.2 Kirk Cousins, QB, MIN
- 10.11 Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC
- 11.2 Kenny Golladay, WR, DET
- 12.11 Jeremy Hill, RB, NE
- 13.2 DeVante Parker, WR, MIA
- 14.11 Lions DST
There are reasons to be concerned about Elliott's offensive line, and I've dropped him behind Johnson in PPR. But I also think we need to remember what he's done in the NFL. As a rookie he had 354 touches for 1,994 yards and 16 touchdowns in 15 games. In 10 games last year he had 288 touches for 1,252 yards and nine touchdowns. Elliott's career 16-game pace is over 2,000 total yards with 16 touchdowns. It's absurd.
I'll talk about Stills and Smith-Schuster below, but on paper the weakness of this team is the receivers. Just don't think there's not upside. Anderson was a top-15 receiver in this format in 2017, and Woods was better than him on a per-game basis. Golladay is an absolute beast who figures to be a full-time player in a Lions' offense that mostly runs three-receiver sets. And as discouraged as I am by DeVante Parker, I do believe he's a steal on a per-game basis in the 13th round.
As I said at the top, I think the elite receivers are undervalued this year. But if you're put in the position to select running backs early on, it's not all that difficult to load up with high-upside receivers late.
Favorite pick: Jordan Howard
There aren't a lot of top-12 running backs in this environment that you could say are undervalued, but Howard is definitely one. If we're going to see a majority of drafts where nine or ten running backs are going in the first round, there's no reason for Howard to be available in the third in a non-PPR draft. He's given us two years of top-10 production in this format, and the consensus is this is going to be an improved offense under Matt Nagy. Howard should be more efficient than he was in 2017 with a similar number of touches.
Pick I might regret: Kenny Stills
I like Stills a lot this year and definitely think he's the Dolphins receiver to draft. But by selecting him in the seventh round I took away one of his best qualities in Fantasy -- value. Do I think he's likely to justify this pick? Probably. But there's a decent chance he'd be there in the eighth round, and I passed on running backs like Marlon Mack and Tevin Coleman to take him. Truth be told, I'd rather have Mack on this roster now, and I could have used my Ekeler or Hill pick on another receiver.
Player who could make or break my team: JuJu Smith-Schuster
This is one of the most difficult players for me to rank in 2018. If Smith-Schuster comes anywhere close to last year's efficiency and sees an increase in volume, the Steelers may have a pair of top-12 receivers in Fantasy this year. If his volume stays the same and his efficiency regresses, I may not have a top-20 receiver on this roster. I have Smith-Schuster projected somewhere in the middle with efficiency regression but an increase in targets. The end result? 74-999-7 on 106 targets. Just know he has a wide range between his upside and his floor.
