2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Who should I take at No. 2 overall in PPR?
Gurley or Bell? Gurley or Bell or Johnson? Gurley or Bell or Johnson or Brown? If you think these questions make picking at No. 2 in PPR tough, just wait until you get to Rounds 4 and 5!
By
Dave Richard
•
7 min read
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Editor's note: Our latest PPR pick-by-pick series was done in August prior to the third preseason game and is a three-man draft with Heath Cummings, Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard, with each one selecting four teams in this 12-team mock. The goal of this series is to show you positions to draft in these spots as much as the players selected, so take that into account when viewing each team.
Building a team from every draft slot in PPR and non-PPR
If you're reading this and actually have the second overall pick in a PPR draft, you're guaranteed a stud running back who will catch a bunch of passes in the first round of your Fantasy draft! Congratulations!
This isn't a decision to overthink -- Todd Gurley and Le'Veon Bell offer high-yardage, high-touchdown and high-catch potential. Whichever one is available when you're up is the one you should take. David Johnson and Antonio Brown might be worth thinking about, but they're just not quite as perfect (Johnson because of O-line concerns, Brown because he's not a running back). If in your mind they belong at No. 2 overall, it's your team, you roll with it.
The first round is easy to plan for. The second and third rounds? Harder. You're basically going to pick from a talent pool devoid of top-10 running backs, top-10 receivers and Rob Gronkowski. The players in this range will include Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Jordan Howard, Devonta Freeman, Joe Mixon, Doug Baldwin and Larry Fitzgerald. You might not think getting one of these players is such a good thing, but what about getting two? That should make you feel better.
Really where you'll feel the pinch is in Rounds 4 and 5. There's a general feeling that the player pool as a whole feels a drop-off right around 45th overall. This means you're one of the lucky souls who gets two picks right in the teeth of this drain. Ways to avoid this sadness? If your leaguemates take quarterbacks early, it will push other non-quarterbacks down the draft board, helping you out.
Or, if your leaguemates completely abandon taking quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and others might be a consideration. But my experience has been that the receivers left after 45th overall are a little more appealing than the running backs. With that knowledge, you might opt to take two running backs with your first three picks.
That's what I did, and I think it worked out marvelously. Here is my team from No. 2 overall:
- 1.2 Todd Gurley, RB, Rams
- 2.11 Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
- 3.2 Jordan Howard, RB, Bears
- 4.11 Allen Robinson, WR, Bears
- 5.2 Marvin Jones, WR, Lions
- 6.11 Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
- 7.2 Will Fuller, WR, Texans
- 8.11 Ronald Jones, RB, Buccaneers
- 9.2 Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers
- 10.11 C.J. Anderson, RB, Panthers
- 11.2 Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles
- 12.11 John Kelly, RB, Rams
- 13.2 Keelan Cole, WR, Jaguars
- 14.11 Texans DST
Let's start with Round 2, where I took Travis Kelce ahead of receivers like Baldwin, Fitzgerald and Demaryius Thomas. All four of them have the same kind of potential for over 1,000 yards and at least seven touchdowns, but only one can start at tight end. I like having a stud who I shouldn't have to worry about replacing at a thin position like Kelce. He's a fair value at that point in PPR.
As I wrote earlier, the time to hammer receivers will be in Rounds 4 and 5. The guys left at that point are good enough to start whereas the running backs left over won't be quite as good. That made my choice easy as Jordan Howard was the best available player at running back. His coach said this week he expects Howard to play all three downs, and Howard himself is working on being a better receiver. I don't know how Howard can be much better when he had a 71.9 percent catch rate last season, but he's trying. Good for him, glad to have him on my team.
Into the hornet's nest I went in Round 4 ... and it actually turned out to be just fine. Only one quarterback was taken (Rodgers), which meant the talent pool wasn't pushed down. The best running backs on the board were Mark Ingram, Kerryon Johnson, Dion Lewis and Jay Ajayi. I'm glad I took Howard in Round 3. The best receivers left were Allen Robinson, Marvin Jones, Michael Crabtree and Brandin Cooks. Robinson was my favorite, so I drafted him, then got Jones on the way back in Round 4. Between them and Kelce I have three candidates for over 65 catches and 1,000 yards receiving.
I experienced a bout of déjà vu when I was up in Round 6 -- I didn't like the running backs that were left but was fond of several receivers. Again, without much hesitation, I went with Will Fuller first and Cooper Kupp second. These are two pass catchers I am happy to draft in every format at about this point because they both should improve on their 2017 stats. This also locked me into four quality receivers I could mix and match in my lineup throughout the season, taking me off the hook to draft more.
But I did have just two running backs. Yeesh.
I first resolved that problem in late Round 8 when Ronald Jones slid all the way to 95th overall. It's a precipitous drop for a rookie who I was comfortable taking in Round 5 before training camp started, but obviously his poor play in the preseason has sunk his stock. However, at this price tag I can afford to be patient with him and not rush him into my lineup.
After Chris Thompson went at the top of Round 9, the next-best running back on my rankings that I could have taken in Round 9 was Corey Clement. I definitely like him for depth, but not enough to pass on Ben Roethlisberger. My strategy for waiting on quarterback came through to perfection as Big Ben is an absurd steal at 98th overall. It's even worth noting I was exceptionally lucky because the guy at Pick 1 also didn't have a quarterback and didn't take one in his Round 8-9 turn. This was exciting.
But I did have just three running backs. Yeesh.
I remedied this situation the best I could -- I took C.J. Anderson in Round 10 and Gurley's best backup, John Kelly in Round 12. Could I have taken a running back in Round 11 as well? Maybe, but Carson Wentz was still available, and I'm sorry but he's an even more incredible value than Roethlisberger at 122nd overall. I can't believe the oafs I drafted with let him slide to me (and yes, I realize in this exercise I represented three other teams in this league and work with guys who selected the other eight squads and I myself passed on Wentz 10 times before taking him -- so what?).
Favorite pick: Carson Wentz
I'm not an advocate of taking a backup quarterback, but I am a strong advocate of ripping off the rest of the league. For now, Wentz's outlook is uncertain because he's coming back from a torn ACL and his receiving corps is nursing some injuries. Will this scenario last 16 weeks? Probably not. Wentz himself could be back by Week 1 along with a bunch of his teammates. There was no risk in taking Wentz here; the reward could mean a top-five finish. Don't let good values pass you by on Draft Day!
Pick I might regret: Ronald Jones
Running back depth is so important in Fantasy Football. If you don't have it, you have a hard time commanding victories. Jones isn't exactly a blossoming running back talent these days, though there's certainly plenty of long-term potential. Does long-term mean Week 4 or 2019? We'll see. For now I'm OK with him on my bench, but I passed on a couple of sleepers I like (Mike Williams, James White) to get him. We'll see if it pays off.
Player who could make or break my team: Allen Robinson
Like it or not, Robinson is my No. 1 receiver to begin the season. Can the Bears offense find enough targets for Robinson to re-emerge as a 1,000-yard receiver. My intuition says yes, but him coming back from a torn ACL on a new team with an iffy quarterback suggest otherwise. I wouldn't expect him to have a smash-hit season as he did in 2015 with the Jaguars, but I think he can do better than the 73-883-6 line he gave us in 2016.
