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2020 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: The annual deep sleepers list you must see before Week 1
The case has been made for 13 sleepers, including a breakout tight end candidate you'll start every week.
By
Dave Richard
•
10 min read
This was the hardest year to find a Fantasy Football deep sleeper. No preseason games. Limited number of media covering practices. A digital landscape where any crumb of news is instantly digested and amplified. No secrets.
But plenty of under-the-radar names to fill a lineup with. This is my pride and joy — every year I find the guy who I want on the bench of every single one of my Fantasy teams, along with a couple other candidates for those who are in deeper leagues or don't like the guy I pick. My usual rules are to never pick anyone with an ADP north of 120th overall, and no rookie pass catchers (I've been burned too many times by those).
The deep sleeper we're gonna get and root for together
Everything about Smith's game is great. Not good — great.
He's big (6-foot-3, 248 pounds), he's fast (4.62 speed at his NFL Combine) and he's stunningly efficient. Last year, Pro Football Focus had him rated second-best in yards after catch per reception (8.1, better than George Kittle), third best in avoided tackles after catch (14, better than everyone except Kittle and Travis Kelce, and on much fewer receptions) and eighth-best in yards per route run (1.83, better than Zach Ertz and Hunter Henry) out of 44 qualifiers. He also dropped just one pass.
Here he is running out of a bunch formation on an out-and-up route, leaping to out-muscle the defender for the touchdown.
EASY MONEY 💰@Easymoney_81 | #TENvsBAL pic.twitter.com/uVwvrC3Omi
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) January 12, 2020
Here's a play from two years ago where he looks like he's blocking before turning around, making the catch and then making magic happen.
Ooo I love this peel concept from Titans last year... Watch TE Jonnu Smith sell the pass pro and then quick leak inside. pic.twitter.com/5OuAnyqoQW
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) April 11, 2019
This is your typical play where the quarterback pitches it to his 248-pound tight end and he follows a few blocks before erupting for 57 yards. Wait, what???
How many teams have a TE they can line up behind the QB and run the sweep for 57 yds. Jonnu Smith is listed at 6'3" 248 lbs. pic.twitter.com/c6fZq6oVnC
— michael crawford (@abukari) January 6, 2020
And juuust in case you want to really see Smith's speed in action, check out this interception-return. Smith is in the front-middle of the end zone when this ball is picked. Looks who makes the tackle. This was worth no Fantasy points but too incredible to leave out.
From one end of the field to the other! 😮
— RADIO.COM Sports (@RDCSports) December 15, 2019
In the shadow of his own end zone, Whitney Mercilus catches the loose ball and returns it into the Titans red zone! #HOUvsTEN pic.twitter.com/mvOM9nAcdK
Now you know he has talent. The question is whether or not he'll have a real opportunity.
If we learned one thing from Tennessee's deep playoff run, besides Derrick Henry is an absolute stallion, it's that the Titans are creative offensively. Play caller Arthur Smith was given zero respect before the season and he managed multiple miracles every week. I highly doubt the Titans are about to rest on their laurels now, and they should be given the benefit of the doubt that they'll innovate their offense beyond the 20.2 carries per game they've given Henry.
So the leap of faith we're taking is that the Titans put a few more targets out there from week to week (Tannehill averaged just 27.0 throws per game during the regular season), and Smith sees a bump in target share. It's a certainty that Smith will get used a bunch in play-action in and out of the red-zone as a matchup-winning freak. He's apparently shining regularly in practice, separating from Titans defenders and making highlight-reel grabs.
Here's the parting shot: In effectively 10 games with Tannehill as his quarterback, he caught 32 of 40 targets (80% catch rate) for 389 yards and three scores. This includes a targetless Week 17 game where Henry ran away with the rushing title against Houston's backups.
Even including that useless game, Smith's 16-game pace would have been good for 51 receptions, 622 yards and five touchdowns. Two tight ends who had similar 2019 numbers — Dallas Goedert (58-607-5) and Mike Gesicki (51-570-5) — finished in the top-12 in non-PPR and PPR scoring, top-13 in non-PPR points per game and top-16 in PPR points per game.
That's Smith's floor. That's if the Titans do absolutely nothing to get their young tight end more involved than he was in 2019. It's not great, but it assumes a 16-game season where the Titans don't change anything. The bet is they will do more with Smith, who was previously blocked from opportunities by veteran tight ends. Those days are over. His time is now, starting with a so-so matchup against Denver and a great matchup against Jacksonville to begin the season.
CBS ADP: 133.4
Steal him by: Round 10 or later
Add him over: Austin Hooper, Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson, Mike Gesicki, Rob Gronkowski
- Why Smith over Hooper? I've pegged Hooper to a touchdown-heavy role all offseason. I still am. But his target share won't be strong in Cleveland as long as all the other Browns playmakers are healthy.
- Why Smith over Fant? Like Smith, Fant is a tremendous athletic talent in an offense that should pass more, but he's certain to be at best third in the target order behind Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy.
- Why Smith over Hockenson? As long as Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones are hogging targets (they combined for 14.9 per game with Matthew Stafford last year), it's tough to see Hockenson emerging as a weekly contributor.
- Why Smith over Gesicki? Gesicki averaged 3.9 targets per game with both DeVante Parker and Preston Williams healthy last year. That was when Miami averaged 35.5 passes thanks to a hapless defense and a laughable run game. Both have been significantly improved this offseason, and Williams appears healthy again.
- Why Smith over Gronk? As training camp went on, Gronkowski seemed to be less and less a regular part of the Buccaneers plan. He'll still play a lot and score plenty, but his catches and yards are in doubt.
The best deep sleeper at running back
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Before a finger injury sidelined him, Harris was dazzling at Patriots camp. Onlookers were pleasantly surprised not just as his physical rushing style but his soft hands, and Bill Belichick told SiriusXM NFL Radio "everybody had a lot of confidence in him but they've all gained a lot more in him just because of his consistency and dependability."
Man, the Patriots have been looking for a guy like that for a long time. Given the short-but-shaky history of Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, and Lamar Miller, there's probably a good chance Harris eventually takes over the rushing downs role for the Pats. He was a tremendous prospect coming out of Alabama and could roll that into a solid career as soon as he heals up. The Patriots run game figures to be strong given their O-line and Cam Newton not commanding as many pass attempts as some other guy who used to play there did.
CBS ADP: 142.6
Steal him by: Round 10 or later
Add him over: Tevin Coleman, Joshua Kelley, any Jaguars running back unless you need a Week 1 emergency starter
An even deeper sleeper at running back
Look, I can't vouch for anything the Jaguars are doing right now. But the one thing that's clear is somebody's gonna have to play running back for them. Chris Thompson will be that dude in passing situations, and there will be a bunch of those, but when they actually need to hand off, their two choices to open the season will be Devine Ozigbo and Robinson. Both come with no pedigree and neither is a stellar athlete, but Robinson, I believe, has the best combination of skills to be a sustaining early-downs rusher.
He's 5-9 and 220 pounds with a thick lower body. Robinson has good acceleration and impressive vision to find rushing lanes, plus he plays with aggressiveness and even can work out in pass protection. Much of that was on display in the East-West Shrine Game. He's a definite work-in-progress as a receiver and may never be confused for a speedster, but there's some hope for him provided he can find playing time. His only competition, at least to begin the season, is Ozigbo.
CBS ADP: None
Steal him by: Literally your last pick, no one will know who he is
The deep sleeper if I had to pick a rookie receiver
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Before his shoulder injury, Reagor was getting picked anywhere from 90th to 120th overall — despite the fact he was tearing up Eagles practices with his ridiculous speed, route-running and aggressive athleticism. Now he's expected to miss a game or two.
The Eagles' offensive nature is to throw aggressively. DeSean Jackson for sure will play a large role as will Alshon Jeffery when those guys are healthy, but Reagor offers a near-complete package of speed, jukes, power and hops. He's the perfect stash-and-see rookie prospect you can draft at a discount.
Stash him by: Round 12 or later
Add him over: Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown, Bryan Edwards
The deep sleeper if I had to pick a second-year receiver
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I've been enamored with Campbell's game. He's a slot receiver with deep speed and reliable hands. What he needs is volume, and if you follow what Colts coach Frank Reich has been saying about him, he'll get it. The hunch is the Colts will utilize all their offensive weapons, giving Campbell a safe floor of at least five targets per week. And if you consider how often Philip Rivers relied on slot man Keenan Allen in L.A., then you can imagine the upside for Campbell. He's a significantly better pick in PPR.
CBS ADP: None
Steal him by: Round 11 or later
Add him over: Brandon Aiyuk, Steven Sims, Laviska Shenault
The deep sleeper if I had to pick an old receiver
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Cobb is going to be what Cole Beasley was last year: A safe 10-plus points each week in PPR. The Texans offense is evolving, but there's no chance Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller dominate targets and leave nothing for everyone else. Deshaun Watson has spoken about how he intends to implement more spread-concept stuff this year — between that and Cooks' and Fuller's speed, it plays right into Cobb getting some easy check-down passes when he's wide open within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage. He also happens to have the best track record when it comes to staying healthy out of the Texans' top three receivers. Watson has thrown plenty to slot receivers in the past, including when Hopkins lined up there.
CBS ADP: None
Steal him by: Round 14 or later
Add him over: Breshad Perriman, Robby Anderson, Justin Jefferson, Larry Fitzgerald
Quarterback sleeper based strictly on ADP and facial hair
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There's no need to spend much time on Minshew here considering fellow Fantasy writer Heath Cummings has been driving the Minshew Bandwagon since last September. The basics are good enough to make a compelling case for him: The Jaguars stink, they'll throw plenty; Minshew is at minimum a solid starter who averaged 24.6 rush yards and 33.6 pass attempts per game last year. Expect both of those numbers to rise. Also, his first six games are against the Colts, Titans, Dolphins, Bengals, Texans and Lions. He's got a shot to be a long-term starter for your team if you wait on quarterback.
CBS ADP: 145.6
Steal him by: Round 13 or later
Add him over: Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Jimmy Garoppolo, Teddy Bridgewater
If you made it this far ...
Here are some other players who made my list and are worth stashing in deeper leagues (14-plus teams, or leagues with very deep benches):
- Logan Thomas, TE, Washington: Here's the Football Team's starting tight end. He's been money in the red zone and has the size and athleticism to make you drool, but he's completely inexperienced and isn't a burner. Think of him as a slower, less-targeted version of 2019 Darren Waller.
- Auden Tate, WR, Bengals: He's a tall, lean receiver who's dominated red-zone plays with Burrow. If anything happens to A.J. Green, he's going to have a terrific year.
- Chase Claypool, WR, Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger has raved about the gigantic rookie. Perhaps the team did a good job accelerating his experience in camp and will use him in obvious red-zone situations. Claypool is a final-round stash-and-see pick.
- Jerick McKinnon, RB, 49ers: He's absolutely worth celebrating if he can stay healthy this season, but he could be a real difference-maker for the 49ers in the passing game, too. Kyle Shanahan has been looking forward to using this guy for three years!
- Russell Gage, WR, Falcons: Gage could be a PPR sleeper if only because he's locked into the No. 3 receiving role. If his training camp progress is any indication, Gage could be a thorn in the side of Hayden Hurst's production.
- Dan Arnold, TE, Cardinals: Arizona loves Arnold's size in the red zone, so expect him to steal a handful of touchdowns this year. It would be a little bit surprising if he saw a lot of targets between the 20s, though.
