2020 Fantasy QB Busts: Is Aaron Rodgers' time as an elite option up?
At a position as deep as quarterback, missing on a player you reached for can have big consequences. Here's who we're avoiding.
By
Chris Towers
•
1 min read
Writing about busts for Fantasy football is never fun, because you never get to pick obvious players who won't play well. If I could just say Mitchell Trubisky will be a bust in 2020, this would all be a lot easier. But no, by it's very nature, a bust pick almost always has to be a very good player. Potentially even one you like quite a bit.
Take Kyler Murray. He's a popular breakout candidate, and Heath Cummings likes him plenty, listing him among the breakouts in his QB preview piece from earlier this week. However, he's also got Murray listed among his busts here; it may seem contradictory, but it mostly just highlights how high the ceiling is for Murray, and what the risk of reaching for him could mean. It's a bold call either way, and busts are exactly the kind of players who can make you look very stupid.
As part of our QB preview week, we've already taken a look at the state of the position, a comprehensive breakdown of the position, top late-round targets, and updated tiers and strategies, and now we're looking for sleepers, breakouts, and busts. Here, we're focusing on those players the Fantasy Football Today team is avoiding — i.e. their biggest busts.
But before we get to that, here's a big bust possibilty who didn't get mentioned by Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, or Ben Gretch:
- Tom Brady: I know the Patriots didn't put nearly as much talent around him as the Bucs will this season, but are we really going to overlook the risk factors here? Brady finished 22nd in Fantasy scoring per game in 2019, and is being drafted as the 11th QB right now, a few days before his 43rd birthday. We're in uncharted territory for a QB here, and Brady has shown clear warning signs: He ranked 20th in adjusted completion percentage and was one of the worst passers in the NFL against a pass rush. Maybe Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and an un-retired Rob Gronkowski help Brady have one more great season, but it's also possible he's just washed up. We saw it with Peyton Manning in his final season, and even a very talented group of pass catchers couldn't paper over that.
Jamey Eisenberg's QB Busts
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I love Jackson. He was amazing last year, and he should be special again this season. I have him ranked as the No. 2 quarterback behind only Patrick Mahomes. But this listing is all about his ADP, which is Round 1 on CBS Sports. And I get why that is happening for the reigning NFL MVP. Jackson exceeded expectations last season with 3,127 passing yards and 1,206 rushing yards, while also accounting for 43 total touchdowns. But it's hard to repeat as the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in consecutive years, and the last guy to do it was Drew Brees in 2011-12. Guys fall off due to injury, which was part of the problem for Mahomes in 2019 after dominating the year before. Or it could be poor play since the NFL tends to catch up to groundbreaking things. I'd love for Jackson to dominate again, but there could be some slippage in his stats. As a result, the earliest I would draft him is the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in one-quarterback leagues (he's a first-round pick in two-quarterback and Superflex leagues). Even Mahomes being drafted in Round 1 is too soon, so I plan to avoid both quarterbacks at that cost.
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Rodgers didn't have a good Fantasy season in 2019, but he did finish as the No. 7 quarterback in total points and No. 10 in points per game for quarterbacks who made at least 10 starts. But Rodgers should be considered a borderline Fantasy starter at best this season, and he's only worth drafting with a late-round pick. He only had six games last season with at least 20 Fantasy points, and this offseason has been a nightmare for him when it comes to personel. Green Bay lost right tackle Bryan Bulaga, tight end Jimmy Graham (although that might be considered an upgrade, especially if Jace Sternberger steps up as a sophomore) and his main receiver acquisition in Devin Funchess, who opted out as a result of the coronavirus. Along with that, the Packers added another quarterback in Jordan Love in Round 1 of the NFL Draft and a third-string running back in A.J. Dillon in Round 2. The latter selection suggests Green Bay wants to run the ball more with Dillon, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. And what happens if Davante Adams gets hurt again like he did last year? Rodgers could still finish as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback again, but his upside feels capped. He's someone to settle for, instead of target, on Draft Day.
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Dave Richard's QB Busts
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I'm typing this in CAPS: I STILL LIKE WATSON AND WOULD DRAFT HIM, JUST NOT AS A TOP-5 FANTASY QUARTERBACK. Losing Hopkins is just too much, especially since the Texans will ask two receivers with a notable injury history to help replace his numbers. Right around 30% of ALL of Watson's numbers came on passes thrown to Hopkins. It's just too much for Watson to overcome on his own. I'd take him in Round 6, not Round 5 or earlier.
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Once among the most consistent quarterbacks in Fantasy, Rodgers finished 15th in consistency (games with 22-plus Fantasy points). Nearly 30% of his overall Fantasy numbers came in just two games. His completion rate has faded to right around 62% over the past two seasons and his touchdowns have settled in at 27 per year even though in 2019 he had the second-most pass attempts inside the 10-yard line.
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Heath Cummings's QB Busts
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No one wants to call Jackson a bust. But just like with Mahomes last year, it's the right thing to do. You should not draft a quarterback in the first two rounds. But you definitely shouldn't draft a quarterback with Jackson's regression profile in the first two rounds. You should expect he'll lose at least 10 passing touchdowns from his 2019 campaign and upwards of 300 rushing yards. Even if he finishes as the No. 1 quarterback again, he won't separate himself from the field like he did in 2019. Draft a running back or a receiver or Travis Kelce instead at this spot.
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So this is awkward. Yes, Murray is listed as a breakout in my QB preview. Yes, he's also likely to bust at his current ADP. That's because he's being drafted as the No. 4 quarterback, according to ADP, despite the fact he finished outside the top 12 on a per-game basis last year. There's plenty of room for Murray to break out and still not live up to this billing. In fact, it's the most likely outcome. Prescott, Wilson and Watson should all be drafted ahead of Murray.
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Ben Gretch's QB Busts
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It's tough to find busts at quarterback, but Rodgers probably qualifies, especially considering the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. The Packers grabbed a bulldozing running back in Round 2 and Rodgers' heir-apparent in Round 1, both of which suggest moving the offense away from being dependent on the veteran passer. Add in that Rodgers no longer has the same type of mobility that gave him a sneaky strong rushing floor during his Fantasy peak, and he's one to avoid.
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Brees won't be a total bust, but he isn't a volume passer anymore and set a career high in 2019 with a 7.1% touchdown rate after 6.5% in 2018. Those are both more than a percentage point higher than his excellent career rate, and those touchdowns have masked how his upside isn't the same without the big yardage totals. I expect some of those scores to shift back to his running backs in 2020, and Brees also brings some age-related risk. He's just not someone I'll take on Draft Day.
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