Fantasy Football Week 1 Tight End Preview: Projections, numbers to know, and more
Everything you need to know about tight end for Fantasy Football in Week 1
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2 min read
At the other positions, this week is all about how Week 1 projections look different than season-long rankings. At tight end, that may be pretty obvious. Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland were rookies we pushed up in the season-long rankings because of their upside, not because of their Week 1 projection. That's why I generally suggested drafting one of Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, or Jake Ferguson to pair with them. At the same time, low-end tight ends are such low scorers, I wouldn't necessarily say you can't start Loveland or Warren this week. Just know that you don't have much floor in their debuts. The positive for Warren is his offense has an implied total of 24 points, which is an edge over the Bears' 21.5.
One of the most disturbing implied totals of the week is the Detroit Lions. It's not that 22.5 is so low. It's that the Lions averaged 33 points per game last year and only scored below 23 points twice. Micah Parsons has something to do with this, but it's more an expression of the reality that there is likely touchdown regression coming in Detroit. That would be a big problem for Sam LaPorta, whose best Fantasy attribute has been getting into the end zone. With increased target competition from Jameson Williams, I thought LaPorta was being drafted too early all summer, and in the Week 1 projections, he comes out at TE10.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 1:
Week 1 TE Preview
TE Preview
Numbers to Know
- 4.1 -- Mark Andrews averaged 4.1 targets per game last year, his lowest mark since his rookie year. If Isaiah Likely misses Week 1, Andrews' target share should benefit.
- 8.5 -- Tucker Kraft has averaged 8.5 yards after catch per reception. I would say that's George Kittle like, but it is actually better than Kittle. If he sees even a small increase in targets, he could sneak into the top 5 tight ends.
- 1.4% -- Trey McBride had a laughably bad touchdown rate last year. It could be four times higher this year, and it still wouldn't stand out amongst good tight ends. If that happens and his targets stay steady, McBride could be worth a Round 1 pick.
- 6 -- Rashee Rice is out for the first six games of the season. Travis Kelce is a must-start tight end for at least that long, don't even think about it.
- 13.4% -- The Broncos tight end target rate was 13.4% last year, the third-lowest mark in the league. We expect that to change with Evan Engram in town, but if his targets are low in Week 1, it will be reason for alarm.
- 21 -- Zach Ertz had 21 red zone targets last year, second only to Kelce at the position. He's a Week 1 starter for me.
- 18.5 -- David Njoku averaged 18.5 PPR FPPG in five games with Joe Flacco in 2023.
TE Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 1 Streamers (TE Preview)
I hope you don't need a Week 1 streamer at tight end, but if you do, why not shoot for one who could break out and become a must-start tight end? Kincaid's matchup isn't great, but the Bills are expected to score as many touchdowns in Week 1 as almost anyone. One of Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, or Khalil Shakir could break out on this team and become someone you never think about benching.
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Maybe George Pickens doesn't impact Ferguson's target share at all? Dak Prescott has pretty much always elevated his tight end to borderline TE1 territory, and while I don't like the Cowboys' touchdown against Philadelphia, they should be throwing a lot as they chase the score against the Eagles.
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I love Trevor Lawrence this week against Carolina, and Strange is the clear TE1 there. He could get into the end zone, or his targets could be higher than we project because Travis Hunter's offensive snap share is limited. Strange had four games with more than four targets last year and scored at least 9.5 PPR Fantasy points in three of them.
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TE Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Bowers is projected to score more points than all but 10 running backs and wide receivers in my projections. He's only $7,000 on FanDuel. I am saving money somewhere else and paying up at tight end. With a QB and play-caller upgrade, I could see Bowers breaking Fantasy this year.
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Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Fannin is technically a TE2 on his own team, and he is priced as such. But the Browns are going to use a lot of two tight end sets this season, and reports out of Cleveland suggest they love Fannin as a YAC guy out of the slot. If you want to punt TE this week, do it with a guy who could see multiple targets from Joe Flacco in a shootout with the Bengals.
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TE Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You can find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting tight ends are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
