QBs to target/avoid in 2025 Fantasy Football drafts: Easy schedule ahead for Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray

Which quarterbacks can dominate for the full season based on matchup projections?

"It's all about the matchups."

If you've played Fantasy Football for even just half a season, you've probably heard that term. If a player faces a tough defense, it's anticipated that his stats will be worse than normal. If a player faces an easy defense, you figure he'll have a chance to be very effective. Obviously it's not foolproof because it's pro football and crazy things happen every week, but anything that helps you make the best decision possible for your lineup is worth it.

To that end, you'll never make a decision you'd second-guess if you take an elite-tier quarterback. Guys like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are matchup-proof as they've been known to crush everyone, including the toughest of the tough. If you like easy decisions, target a quarterback early.

If you'd rather make similarly simple decisions at other positions, you can wait to take a quarterback. The talent crop isn't quite as good as the first five or six guys who will get taken, but it's not like they're total rubes. Obviously there's more risk involved, so you should consider doing anything you can do to lower that risk and ease concerns.

One of the things you can do? Evaluate the schedules of all non-elite quarterbacks. Or, just read up on it from a guy who's studied every defense, every scheme, every everything that would impact a quarterback.

That's what I've done this offseason with the goal of projecting how each defense will perform. The end result is a ranking for every team's quarterbacks based on their schedule. And I'll use this information not to make major Fantasy decisions, but as a tiebreaker between two quarterbacks who I have equally tiered based on their play, their receivers, etc.

Matchups don't matter for the greats, but they do for everyone else. We know it when we set lineups -- why shouldn't we consider them when we draft?

Complete Fantasy Strength of Schedule breakdowns by position: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end

The Niners have a top five favorable schedule across every position. This includes at quarterback where Purdy has the third-easiest projected schedule for 2025 and the easiest projected schedule for the first four weeks of the season. This has more to do with their matchups against the NFC South and AFC South than it does their intra-division foes. Purdy's path to success is easier than it's been in years, even if his receiving corps seems shaky.

Don't sour on the dual-threat. His schedule rated out sixth-easiest for the season and second-easiest for the first four weeks. He opens the year against the Saints and Panthers before starting divisional play in Weeks 3 and 4, then he gets the Titans in Week 5. If he starts hot, you could try to move him in a deal for a top-tier QB, but it's not like his schedule gets real tough until maybe Week 13.

NFC South has it good. All four of the NFC South teams have top five projected grades for the season. This is because only the Buccaneers defense graded out nicely against the pass, meaning the other defenses in the division figure to offer favorable matchups. You'd assume the Bucs would benefit the most but their games against other first-place teams actually put them fifth overall with the other three NFC South teams ahead of them. This adds a little sleeper appeal for Bryce Young and Michael Penix Jr. (I can't trust a Saints QB yet).

NFC North has it tough. In addition to everyone facing each other twice, the NFC North plays against the NFC East and the dreaded AFC North. This is on top of a Packers defense with a deep pass rush, a Lions defense that was good without its top pass rusher for most of last year, a Bears defense with a quality secondary and a Vikings defense with an unrelenting pass rush of its own. You should know that J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings have the second-toughest graded QB season-long schedule with the Packers fourth-toughest, Lions fifth-toughest and Bears closer to the middle of the pack.

Others with favorable schedules: Sam Darnold (seventh-easiest projected schedule), Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson (eighth), C.J. Stroud (ninth), Trevor Lawrence (10th).

QBs with favorable early-season schedules (potential sell-high candidates in October): Murray, Stroud, Bo Nix

QBs with tough early-season schedules (potential buy-low candidates in October): Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford

Full Rankings: Fantasy Strength of Schedule for the season through Week 17

CAR	1	DAL	17
NO	2	NYG	18
SF	3	PHI	19
ATL	4	BUF	20
ARI	5	CHI	21
TB	6	WAS	22
SEA	7	PIT	23
IND	8	LAC	24
HOU	9	LV	25
JAC	10	KC	26
NE	11	CLE	27
DEN	12	DET	28
LAR	13	GB	29
TEN	14	MIN	30
NYJ	15	BAL	31
MIA	16	CIN	32

Full Rankings: Fantasy Strength of Schedule for first four weeks

SF	1	MIN	17
ARI	2	MIA	18
DEN	3	PIT	19
CAR	4	PHI	20
HOU	5	LAC	21
WAS	6	LAR	22
NE	7	GB	23
ATL	8	CIN	24
IND	9	TB	25
JAC	10	DAL	26
SEA	11	CLE	27
BUF	12	TEN	28
LV	13	NYJ	29
NO	14	KC	30
NYG	15	DET	31
CHI	16	BAL	32

Full Rankings: Fantasy Strength of Schedule for Weeks 15-17

TB	1	DEN	17
NO	2	LAR	18
HOU	3	CIN	19
NYJ	4	CHI	20
SEA	5	JAC	21
CAR	6	PIT	22
NYG	7	MIA	23
SF	8	MIN	24
TEN	9	WAS	25
PHI	10	DET	26
ATL	11	NE	27
DAL	12	BUF	28
KC	13	LAC	29
IND	14	CLE	30
BAL	15	LV	31
ARI	16	GB	32

Still here? Cool! You'll also benefit from the in-season version of the Fantasy Strength of Schedule rankings, exclusively on SportsLine. Each week, I update the database and reveal which players have favorable or unfavorable matchups down the line. It's a cheat code for trades. Sign up now (or whenever) and use the promo code DAVE for a special deal on your first month, plus you can cancel anytime.