2023 Lexington Stakes predictions, odds, date, post time, lineup: Horse racing expert reveals surprising picks
Bob Weir has studied the Lexington Stakes 2023 field and locked in his picks for Saturday's race at Keeneland Race Course
By
CBS Sports Staff
•
3 min read
The road to the Kentucky Derby concludes Saturday when 11 three-year-olds leave the starting gate in the final prep race of the year, the 2023 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland Race Course. The Lexington Stakes 2023 will award Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 20-8-6-4-2 basis, but the Steve Asmussen-trained Disarm, who already has earned 40 points, is the only horse in the 2023 Lexington Stakes field who is in position to earn a spot. He must finish in the top three on Saturday. The Brad Cox-trained First Mission is the 3-1 favorite in the 2023 Lexington Stakes odds. Disarm and Arabian Lion are the co-second choices in the 2023 Lexington Stakes lineup at 7-2.
Post time is 5:16 p.m. ET. With several lightly raced three-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any Lexington Stakes picks.
A member of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team who is based in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014.
Last year he was red-hot in the Triple Crown prep races, hitting the superfecta in the Blue Grass Stakes and exactas in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby. He also hit the 19-1 winner of the Man o' War Stakes, the trifecta in the Pegasus World Cup, the superfecta in the Met Mile and multiple Pick 4s, including May 14's at Belmont for $1,851. Two weeks ago he hit the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park for $641 and the exacta in the Florida Derby.
Now, he has handicapped the 2023 Lexington Stakes lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top Lexington Stakes predictions
One surprise: Weir is high on the chances of Prairie Hawk, even though he's a 15-1 longshot. This Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee is a son of Curlin who should only improve as the distance of races get longer. He is coming off a fourth place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby, which was won by one of the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby, Tapit Trice.
Weir thinks that Joseph's runners could be heating up, as his Lord Miles won last week's Wood Memorial. Also, "Prairie Hawk picks up Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez and is not without a chance," Weir told SportsLine. Weir is using Prairie Hawk prominently in his 2023 Lexington Stakes bets. You can see all of Weir's picks for the Lexington Stakes at SportsLine.
How to make Lexington Stakes picks
Weir's top pick is a horse who "should be able to get a nice stalking-to-midpack trip" on Saturday. He also is high on a big double-digit longshot who is "bred for the dirt." Weir is including these horses in his 2023 Lexington Stakes bets, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.
So who wins the Lexington Stakes 2023? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Weir constructed his wagers? Check out the latest 2023 Lexington Stakes odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir's picks for the Lexington Stakes, and find out.
2023 Lexington Stakes odds
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Baseline Beater | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Reinvest | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Demolition Duke | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Transect | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | First Mission | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Disarm | 7-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Denington | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Empirestrikesfast | 4-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Prairie Hawk | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Curly Larry and Mo | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Arabian Lion | 7-2 | SEE PICKS |
