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The road to the Kentucky Derby makes a stop at Oaklawn Park on Saturday for the 2024 Arkansas Derby. One of the most important Derby prep races historically, the Arkansas Derby will award Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis. That will guarantee the top two finishers a berth in the Run for the Roses on the first Saturday in May. On Saturday, the Bob Baffert-trained Muth is the 8-5 favorite in the 2024 Arkansas Derby odds. Muth, however, is ineligible to receive Derby qualifying points because of Baffert's suspension from racing at Churchill Downs. Rebel Stakes winner Timberlake is the 9-5 second choice in the 10-horse 2024 Arkansas Derby field, while Southwest Stakes winner Mystik Dan is 5-2.

Post time is set for 7:47 p.m. ET. With several accomplished horses set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2024 Arkansas Derby picks.

Few people in racing are as well-connected as Yu. An on-air host and reporter who has provided racing analysis for TVG, HRTV and the Breeders' Cup, Yu has spent a lifetime in racing. Prior to her television career, she worked for trainers Steve Asmussen and Ron Moquett. She also is married to Santa Anita-based trainer Ryan Hanson.

Yu also has astute handicapping chops. In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager two years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won the Derby.

Last year she crushed the Saudi Cup, riding 15-1 winner Panthalassa, nailed Derma Sotogake to win the UAE Derby and hit the exacta in the Santa Anita Derby. She hit the exacta in the Preakness Stakes and Hollywood Gold Cup and had both the winner and exacta in the Summertime Oaks and the Prince of Wales's Stakes. She also smashed the Haskell Stakes for a $663 score, hitting 12-1 winner Geaux Rocket Ride as well as the exacta. And in January, she correctly called National Treasure to win the Pegasus World Cup.

Now, Yu has handicapped the 2024 Arkansas Derby lineup, made her picks and constructed her best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2024 Arkansas Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is completely fading Mystik Dan even though he is one of the top favorites. A son of two-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents, Mystik Dan is coming off one of the most visually impressive Kentucky Derby prep performances by any 3-year-old this year, an eight-length victory in the Southwest Stakes. That effort earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure, the best of any horse in the field.

However, Mystik Dan got a rail-skimming, ground-saving trip that day. Also, Yu believes he may have thrived on a sloppy track, which he won't get on Saturday. "I'm leery and I think he will be overplayed, so I think he's a fade," Yu told SportsLine. Yu is not including Mystik Dan in any of her wagers. You can see all of Yu's 2024 Arkansas Derby bets here.

How to make 2024 Arkansas Derby picks

Moreover, Yu is high on a double-digit longshot who "has always trended in the right direction." She is including this horse in her 2024 Arkansas Derby bets, and so should you. She's sharing which horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2024 Arkansas Derby, what double-digit longshot is a must-back and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Arkansas Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider, and find out. 

2024 Arkansas Derby odds, contenders

Prg #HorseOddsProjection
1Will Take It50-1SEE PICKS
2Timberlake9-5SEE PICKS
3Dimatic20-1SEE PICKS
4Time for Truth20-1SEE PICKS
5Liberal Arts15-1SEE PICKS
6Informed Patriot30-1SEE PICKS
7Muth8-5SEE PICKS
8Just Steel15-1SEE PICKS
9Mystik Dan5-2SEE PICKS
10Imperial Gun30-1SEE PICKS