turner-getty.png
Getty Images

Welcome to day two of the 2023 Major League Baseball playoffs. The first day was quite profitable here at Best Bets central. Your excited correspondent went 4-1 on full picks and missed out on the "sprinkle" pick by about three inches (Corbin Carroll stolen base; he was called out attempting to steal and it was close enough that the Diamondbacks challenged the call). Thank you goes out to Carroll, Trea Turner, Bo Bichette and the Phillies' offense. 

Let's make it a good day two and keeping adding to the "thank you" list. 

Rangers (+125) at Rays (-150), 3:08 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: RHP Nathan Eovaldi (12-5, 3.63) vs. RHP Zach Eflin (16-8, 3.50)

If there were such a thing, Eovaldi might've won the Cy Young through June 4. He was 8-2 with a 2.24 ERA at the time. Things went a bit off the rails after that and it included no starts between July 19 and Sept. 5 due to injury. Since his return, he has not been good or gotten deep into games. 

The Rays went 14-4 in Eflin's 18 home starts this season. 

The play: Rays over 4.5 runs (+110)

As I alluded to above, Eovaldi didn't work more than five innings in game in his six September starts. He had a 9.30 ERA and averaged about 3 1/3 innings per start. The Rangers have had major bullpen issues, too. In the regular season, the Rays averaged 5.17 runs per game at home and they were just totally shut down in Game 1. I like some evening out there in Game 2 with the help of Eovaldi and the Rangers' bullpen.

Blue Jays (-105) at Twins (-115), 4:38 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: RHP José Berríos (11-12, 3.65) vs. RHP Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.79)

No more dubious streak, as the Twins have now won one playoff game in a row. 

Jays starter Berríos spent parts of six seasons with the Twins, having made 135 starts and two All-Star teams with the ballclub. 

The play: Sonny Gray over 4.5 strikeouts (-120)

The Blue Jays are not a high volume strikeout team. Pablo López only had three strikeouts in Game 1 against them, for example. I am, however, fully expecting a well-rested Gray to dominate this lineup for around seven innings. Last time he faced the Jays, he struck out five in five innings and he averages just about one strikeout per inning. Given that I'm firm in my belief he goes at least six innings and probably seven, getting to five strikeouts is workable. 

Diamondbacks (+110) at Brewers (-130), 7:08 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: RHP Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47) vs. Freddy Peralta (12-10, 3.86)

Arizona stole Game 1 in the one of the most lopsided pitching matchups we'll see the entire playoffs. In fact, it will likely be the most lopsided on paper. The Brewers' second ace, Brandon Woodruff, is hurt while the D-Backs are sending their Cy Young candidate to the mound. 

Gallen, though, had a 4.42 ERA on the road vs. 2.47 at home this season. Peralta was nearly a full run better at home (3.44 vs. 4.34 on the road), too, so maybe the pitching matchup actually favors the Brewers here?

The play: Freddy Peralta over 5.5 strikeouts (-130)

The Diamondbacks don't strike out a ton, but they haven't seen much of Peralta and his electric stuff. The last time he faced the D-Backs was in 2021 and most of the team has never seen him. He struck out 210 batters in 165 2/3 innings this season. At home? He struck out an absurd 127 batters in 89 innings. Here are the strikeout totals from his last five starts in American Family Field: 13, 13, 9, 10, 9.

Marlins (+125) at Phillies (-150), 8:08 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: LHP Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46)

The Phillies were 49-32 at home in the regular season while the Marlins were 38-42 on the road. The vibes were nearly palpable in Citizens Bank Park for Game 1 and now they're ready to go for the proverbial kill. Marlins starter Garrett gave up three runs on six hits in five innings, exactly, both times he faced the Phillies this year. Nola was inconsistent this season and the Marlins hit him well all three times they faced him, but he closed the season very strong. 

The play: Trea Turner over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-150)

Last season, I rode Bryce Harper's hot streak throughout the playoffs and there was never any reason to stray. He just kept hitting. It was so fun to keep cashing tickets along the ride. Maybe Trea is my guy this time. He closed the regular season hitting .339/.391/.677 with 14 doubles, a triple, 16 homers, 41 RBI and 42 runs in his last 47 games. In Game 1 of this series, he was 2 for 3 with a walk, double and stolen base. 

As a bonus, Turner is 2 for 6 in his career against Garrett and both of those hits were home runs, most recently on July 8 of this season. 

There's some juice on this one, I know, but it'll be worth it just like it was in Game 1.