Almost half the National League is in rebuild mode
At least six teams in the National League right now appear to be in rebuilding mode for the 2016 season, which is 40 percent of the league.
By
Matt Snyder
•
4 min read
Jonathan Lucroy's recent comments on the Brewers' rebuild, got me thinking about different aspects of rebuilds. What about the veteran players wasting their prime? What about the casual fans? What older fans who might not have many years left? What about younger fans who might just give up and focus on other sports?
Hey, I think about baseball a lot. Sometimes too much, but I digress.
While shrewd front offices and die-hard fans might see the huge turnarounds by the Astros and Cubs last season -- and the Royals and Pirates before them, though those took seemingly forever -- as evidence that rebuilding projects work and need to happen, sometimes rebuilds don't work. Still, they happen.
So what do we get in the National League this season?
At least six rebuilding teams. In a 15-team league that is, so 40 percent.
To make it sound as negative as we possibly can: It's Jan. 21 and it appears that almost half of the National League teams aren't planning on contending in 2016.
Not only that, but with three division winners and two wild cards, five of the nine teams that are planning to contend will make the playoffs.
This isn't to say the rebuilds aren't justified.
The Braves: They decided the 2013 NL East champion that stumbled to 79-83 in 2014 was on the wrong path and wanted things completely set up for future success by the time the new stadium comes around for the 2017 season. There has been a radical rebuild the past two offseasons in Atlanta.
The Phillies: They went 81-81 in 2012 and 73-89 in 2013 with a litany of big -- and several terrible -- contracts. The farm system wasn't strong, either, so something needed to be done. The good news is most of the contracts are gone and some of the youth movement (Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola) is starting to show their stuff. Of course, trading Ken Giles shows the mindset of the front office for 2016.
The Brewers: After a 68-94 season and with far too many holes to fill on a relatively limited budget, the Brewers joined the rebuilding party this offseason. The fact that they're even thinking about dealing Lucroy and his club-friendly deal ($4M this year, $5.25M option for next year) shows where the front office is with this team.
The Reds: They started rebuilding on the fly last offseason by trading Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon, though this could have also been viewed as cutting the fat in advance, given what we saw from the duo in 2015. But then trades of Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake for prospect packages got the full rebuild underway and it continued with the Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman trades this offseason.
The Padres: Here, we might have the posterboy in favor of sticking with a rebuild. The 2014 Padres were 77-85, but had some promising talent on the horizon. Of course, the big-league club was pretty boring and hadn't won more than 77 games since 2010. So new GM A.J. Preller said screw it and went for broke. And he went broke, regressing by three games and already reversing course in trading Craig Kimbrel, Joaquin Benoit while letting Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy walk and reportedly listening to trade offers for James Shields, Andrew Cashner and even Tyson Ross.
The Rockies: When they traded Troy Tulowitzki last July, that was a clear signal they were ready to rebuild. Now reports indicate they are prepared to deal and outfielder, though other reports say they won't be trading Carlos Gonzalez. They might have to hold on to Jose Reyes, too, so seems like a halfway rebuilding job. They sure don't look like they are trying to win, either, though.
I understand that we get unexpected contenders every year, but I'm very confident we won't see that happening here. There are clearly already six non-contenders in the National League who are either outwardly trying to rebuild or are stuck in neutral on Rebuilding Road.
By definition, every rebuild is unique. By no means should teams be looking at the Cubs and saying that guarantees a rebuilding project success. The right front office has to grab the right players, stick to a plan and, yes, get a little lucky along the way, too.
Meanwhile, attendance and TV ratings can suffer as a decent percentage of the fan base becomes disgruntled. The veterans on the team can become alienated as outlined by Lucroy's above comments, too.
Let's expand quickly on the fans here. Fans are the lifeblood of Major League Baseball and it's pretty tough to get excited for our favorite sport knowing our favorite team is going to be in the bottom of the standings. Regular readers know that I'm speaking from experience here (man, there were some rough years recently!). At least I got to write about the sport for a living. Many fans only get to watch their favorite team. Sitting here right now and being, for example, a Reds fan and looking at a 95-ish loss season in 2016 can't be a fun feeling. It's hard to imagine casual fans of rebuilding teams will much care about the 2016 season.
We know that the rebuilds done the right way can and do work, but in the short term, it's a tough pill for fans and players alike to swallow. We know that's going to happen with 40 percent of the National League in 2016 and it's not even February. Again, I get why it happens but it's also sad in a way.
