Cleveland 2021 MLB preview: Projected lineup, rotation and three questions as post-Lindor era begins

Francisco Lindor is gone but postseason aspirations remain in Cleveland

Five years ago, Cleveland was one swing -- literally one swing (on multiple occasions) -- away from the franchise's first World Series title since 1948. Things have been trending downhill since then even if they haven't completely cratered. Cleveland blew a 2-0 lead in the 2017 ALDS, was swept in the 2018 ALDS, missed the 2019 postseason, then was swept in the 2020 Wild Card Series. They have lost eight straight postseason games and 11 of their last 13 postseason games. Ouch.

Cleveland finally did the inevitable this offseason and traded franchise player Francisco Lindor, an impending free agent the team was not going to pay to keep around long-term. Lindor and stalwart Carlos Carrasco were sent to the Mets for a four-player package that, on the surface, looks like quantity more than quality. Cleveland didn't land a top prospect or a slam dunk future star, and instead received a bunch of players who look like good bets to become solid contributors. That has been their M.O. for a while now.

"I was in tears in the conversations with Carlos and Francisco (informing them of the trade)," Cleveland president Chris Antonetti told reporters, including MLB.com's Mandy Bell, after the trade. "I think they were, as well, because we care about each other and they're special people in addition to special players. Trades like this are really, really hard to make. But at the same time, we feel it's the right thing to do for us."

The Carrasco and Lindor trade did not mark the start of the deep rebuild. Instead, Cleveland spent a little money in free agency to bolster the lineup, and the team will look to contend in a competitive (but winnable) AL Central. To the club's credit, Cleveland doesn't do deep rebuilds. They always try to field a competitive team, even if their market size and payroll situation forces them to trade away a Lindor or CC Sabathia or Roberto Alomar every few years.

With that in mind, let's preview the upcoming season in Cleveland.

Win total projection, odds

• 2021 SportsLine projection: 87-75
• World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): +4000
• 2020 Record: 35-25 (second in AL Central, lost Wild Card Series)

Projected lineup

1. 2B Cesar Hernandez
2. 3B Jose Ramirez
3. LF Eddie Rosario
4. DH Franmil Reyes
5. RF Josh Naylor
6. C Roberto Perez
7. 1B Jake Bauers
8. CF Oscar Mercado
9. SS Andres Gimenez

Bench: C Austin Hedges, IF Mike Freeman, IF Amed Rosario, OF Jordan Luplow

That lineup is far from settled. The outfield other than Rosario in left and Luplow platooning against lefties is wide open, and Bauers is not a lock to play first base even though he's out of options and must pass through waivers to go to Triple-A. Cleveland could go with Naylor, a natural first baseman, or even prospect Bobby Bradley at first base. The 1-4 lineup spots are pretty well set. The 5-9 spots could be revolving door all season, or at least until players grab roles and run with them.

Projected rotation

1. RHP Shane Bieber
2. RHP Zach Plesac
3. RHP Aaron Civale
4. RHP Triston McKenzie
5. RHP Cal Quantrill

Bullpen: CL James Karinchak, SU Nick Wittgren, MR Emmanuel Clase, MR Phil Maton, MR Blake Parker, MR Oliver Perez, LG Adam Plutko 

Within the last 20 months Cleveland has traded Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, and Mike Clevinger. That's an awful lot of high-end pitching out the door, but Cleveland is a pitching development powerhouse, and has the depth and talent to plug into the rotation behind Bieber, the reigning Cy Young winner. Depth options include Logan Allen, Sam Hentges, and Scott Moss, and they're going to be needed because McKenzie has an injury history and will have his workload monitored. The middle of the bullpen is unsettled -- Parker and Perez are in camp as non-roster invitees -- though Cleveland will get Clase back. He missed last season with a performance-enhancing drug suspension and a lat injury, and brings a 98-mph cutter to the table. Clase, Karinchak, and Wittgren are a sneaky great late-inning trio.

Here are three questions about Cleveland's 2021 season.

1. Who's playing shortstop?

Well, it's not Lindor. We know that. Cleveland netted both Gimenez and Amed Rosario in the trade with the Mets. They're both natural shortstops, though Rosario is rough defensively, and the club may finally go through with the position change (center field?) the Mets were said to be considering the last few years. There are two possible solutions:

• Gimenez at short and Rosario at another position (or a super utility role).
• Rosario at short and Gimenez in Triple-A (either for more seasoning or straight up service-time manipulation).

"I don't think there's any pressure (in winning the shortstop job)," Gimenez told reporters, including MLB.com's Mandy Bell, earlier this month. "As I mentioned in previous interviews, my focus is not on competing against anybody, my focus is on competing against myself and improving myself every day, and in that way, I can contribute to make the team better."  

Gimenez is only 22 and there's a precociousness to his game. He's a very heady and instinctual player, and his athleticism and natural physical gifts are obvious on the field. Rosario, like Gimenez, is a former top prospect, and he's only 25 himself. He's been around a few years now, so it's easy to forget he's still a young player, and it's not unreasonable to think the best is yet to come.

It's still fairly early in spring training and neither Gimenez nor Rosario has emerged as the leader for the shortstop job (because they've both played very well so far). Whoever gets the job, that player won't be Lindor, and the pressure of replacing Lindor comes with the territory. Unfair? Yeah, it's not like Gimenez or Rosario made the trade, but that scrutiny will be unavoidable.

"[The shortstop competition has] actually been kind of refreshing," manager Terry Francona recently told reporters, including Cleveland.com's Paul Hoynes. "Here's our challenge. Here's what's right in front of us. I don't think anybody's gonna run from it or make an excuse for it. The guys in uniform, our responsibility is to make these players play the best baseball they can and hopefully have an atmosphere where they enjoy trying to do the right thing ... The first thing is, because it's such a premium defensive position, the ball needs to be caught. All the routine plays need to be made."

2. Who's playing the outfield?

It's sort of amazing Cleveland has won as much as they have the last few years despite fielding one of the least productive outfields in the sport. Here are their outfield ranks the last two seasons (since Michael Brantley left as a free agent):

• Batting average: .239 (5th worst)
• On-base percentage: .306 (6th worst)
• Slugging percentage: .389 (4th worst)

Pretty terrible! Cleveland spent some money and brought in Rosario, who's slugged 96 home runs since 2017, the 30th most in baseball. He has a chance to become the first Cleveland outfielder to hit 24 homers in a season since Grady Sizemore in 2008 (true story). Luplow crushes lefties and will serve as a platoon option again. The rest of the outfield is wide open.

Mercado had a solid rookie season in 2019 and was so bad in 2020 he was sent to the alternate site. Naylor is a former first-round pick who's shown flashes (and only flashes) with the bat. Bradley Zimmer had a solid rookie season in 2017 but hasn't been able to get on track since wrecking his shoulder crashing into the outfield wall in 2018. Prospect Daniel Johnson was overmatched during his cup of coffee last year and waiver claim Harold Ramirez is, well, waiver wire fodder.

Give Cleveland a truth serum and I think team executives would tell you they want Mercado to reclaim the center field job and Naylor to settle into right field long-term, leaving Luplow as a platoon option and Zimmer, Johnson, and Ramirez as Triple-A depth. It's going to take a village to replace Lindor and getting more production from the outfield is one way Cleveland can make up for the lost offense.

3. Is the offense good enough?

I have no real concerns with Cleveland's pitching beyond the usual (inherent injury risk, middle relief, etc.). They've been the sport's premier pitching development organization for a few years now and they get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to arms. They have a bona fide ace in Bieber, two quality starters in Civale and Plesac, and a host of depth with upside. Who will be the next unheralded Cleveland pitcher to have a big breakout year? My money's on Scott Moss.

Offensively, I have concerns. This is a team that averaged 4.13 runs per game last year, fifth fewest in baseball, and their 86 OPS+ was fourth worst in baseball. That was with Lindor (to be fair, he had a down 2020) and Ramirez putting together another an MVP-caliber season. Lindor's gone and Carlos Santana is gone (he's another guy who had a down 2020), and they won't be easy to replace. Ramirez is a star, Hernandez is underrated, and Rosario and Reyes have 30-homer power. The rest of lineup? Eek.

FanGraphs projections have Cleveland's true offensive talent level middle of the pack at 17.6 WAR, and middle of the pack qualifies as an upgrade. The difference between another bottom-tier offense and a middle-of-the-pack offense will be young players like Mercado and Naylor having breakout years, Rosario and Ramirez continuing at their established pace, and Reyes showing a little more consistency and really tapping into his power. The pitching's great. Whether they'll score enough runs to support it is unclear.