Four reasons why the Cardinals should be aggressively pursuing a Mookie Betts trade

The Cardinals have not been publicly involved in the Mookie Betts chase, but they should be

With spring training starting this month, the free-agent market has been mostly picked clean, and our attention has turned to the trade market. Kris Bryant's service time grievance has been resolved, meaning the Cubs can begin trade talks in earnest. Nolan Arenado and Francisco Lindor remain available, though the rumor mill has been mostly quiet the last few days.

Over the last week or so trade discussions involving Boston Red Sox star Mookie Betts have begun to heat up. The Dodgers and Padres have been most connected to Betts, with Los Angeles seemingly the most likely landing spot. The Dodgers have the prospects to trade and the payroll space to absorb Mookie's entire $27 million salary without exceeding the $208 million luxury tax threshold.

The Padres have gone big-game hunting the last few offseasons -- they added Tommy Pham this winter after signing Manny Machado last winter and Eric Hosmer the winter before -- and I think Betts would take them from postseason hopeful to no-doubt wild-card contender. Overtaking the Dodgers in the NL West would be tough. A wild-card spot would be doable though.

Surely the Dodgers and Padres are not the only teams to check in on Betts this offseason, but they are the teams most connected to him. I reckon every contender would love to add Mookie to their roster. He's so good and so talented, and also so easy to love. Betts is a franchise player who can shift the balance of power within a division or a postseason series all by himself.

The case can be made neither the Dodgers, the overwhelming NL West favorites with or without Betts, nor the Padres, who might still be a year away from serious contention, are the team that most needs to adds Mookie. The contender that I think needs him the most: St. Louis Cardinals. Here are four reasons the Cardinals should be the team most aggressively pursuing Betts right now.

1. They need offense

The Cardinals went out with a whimper in the NLCS last season, scoring six runs total in the four-game sweep, including two runs combined in Games 1-3. St. Louis hit .130/.195/.179 in the series. Pitchers collectively hit .128/.159/.163 during the 2019 regular season. Obviously the Nationals' championship rotation deserves some credit for that, but still, yikes.

An underwhelming offense was a common theme for the Cardinals last year. They scored only 764 runs during the regular season, the fewest among postseason teams, and their rate stats were below-average across the board:

• Batting average: .245 (23rd among the 30 MLB teams)
• On-base percentage: .322 (17th)
• Slugging percentage: .420 (23rd)
• OPS+: 92 (20th)

Looking at non-pitchers only, the Cardinals still hit an underwhelming .251/.330/.428 last season, which is almost exactly league average. Average isn't bad, but it's not really good either, and the Cardinals have done nothing to improve their offense this winter other than let Marcell Ozuna leave as a free agent (and trade away Jose Martinez), which is the opposite of getting better.

It's not unreasonable to expect several incumbent players to be better in 2020. Matt Carpenter is not going to hit .226/.334/.392 again, is he? Not as long as he's healthy, I think. Paul Goldschmidt could be better in Year 2 with St. Louis now that he has a year under his belt. Harrison Bader and Paul DeJong are young enough that they could still take their game to another level.

Clearly though, the Cardinals could use another impact hitter. Expecting (hoping?) players already on the roster to perform better is all fine and good, but even that may not be enough to place St. Louis among the game's most serious World Series contenders. Imagine the lineup possibilities with Betts:

1. CF Mookie Betts
2. 2B Kolten Wong
3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
4. 3B Matt Carpenter
5. RF Dexter Fowler
6. SS Paul DeJong
7. C Yadier Molina
8. LF Tommy Edman
9. Pitcher's spot

Maybe it's Betts in his usual right field with Bader in center -- Wil Myers is reportedly part of Betts trade talks with the Padres, could Fowler go to Boston in a hypothetical deal to offset salary? -- or maybe it's Betts batting third and Goldschmidt fourth, with Edman and his on-base ability in the leadoff spot, but that's the potential lineup, generally speaking. Sure looks more dangerous, doesn't it?

Betts is an elite offensive talent who provides power, gets on base, doesn't strike out much, and runs the bases extremely well. He is an all-around impact player with no glaring weakness, and the Cardinals need a little of everything he brings to the table. As it stands, their offense looks a little underwhelming because it was underwhelming last year. Mookie would help correct that.

2. The NL Central is there for the taking

Mookie Betts would make the Cardinals the prohibitive NL Central favorites. USATSI

At 93-69, the Cardinals had the 10th-best record in baseball last season, yet it was good enough to win the NL Central. It is the game's weakest division right now, at least on paper, and the Reds are the only team in the division to really try this offseason. No other NL Central team has made a significant addition (the Brewers have made a lot of moves, but nothing really game-changing).

Here, via FanGraphs, are the NL Central's 2020 WAR projections:

1. Cubs: 40.5 WAR
2. Brewers: 36.1 WAR
3. Cardinals: 35.3 WAR
4. Reds: 32.6 WAR
5. Pirates: 28.4 WAR

Projections are not predictions, they are an attempt to estimate talent level, and the projections see the NL Central as very tightly grouped, especially at the top. The 5.2 WAR difference between the Cubs and Cardinals really isn't all that big. Much like last year, the NL Central looks to be very wide open going into 2020. 

Betts has been no worse than the 6 WAR player the last five years -- he was a 9.7 WAR player in 2016 and a 10.9 WAR player in 2018 -- and he will play the entire 2020 regular season at age 27. He is right smack in the prime of his career and expecting another MVP-caliber season in 2020 is perfectly reasonable. He's that good and he's been that consistently excellent.

Adding Betts, even if it means subtracting Bader or Fowler in the process, would be enough to make St. Louis the early NL Central favorites, or at least put them even with the Cubs in the eyes of the projections. When a division race looks to be this close, adding a player like Mookie can change the entire outlook. He'd help put the Cardinals over the top.

3. This might be Molina's last hurrah

Earlier this month Molina, the Cardinals' stalwart catcher, told reporters he believes he can play at least another two years, but it is Cardinals or bust for him. He would rather retire than suit up for another organization. From Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

"I also said that if the Cardinals want me that's the only team I want to play for," Molina said. "So, it's still like that too. If they want me. If they want to move apart, that's it for me." 

Molina, an impending free agent, turns 38 in July and he remains a productive player, though last season was his worst offensive season in several years. He still rates well as a pitch-framer and is a good thrower, and his pitchers have long raved about the way he calls a game and leads the staff. Anything Molina provides at the plate is gravy, truly.

With his 38th birthday looming, the clock is ticking on Molina's career, and the same applies to Adam Wainwright. The 38-year-old right-hander signed a new one-year contract earlier this offseason. How much does each guy have left in the tank? Seems like a lot based on last season, but who really knows? Decline can come quickly for players on the wrong side of 35.

This extends beyond Molina and Wainwright too. Goldschmidt turned 32 in September. Carpenter turned 34 in November. Fowler will turn 34 in March. Andrew Miller turns 35 in May. The Cardinals had the fourth oldest position player group in baseball last year and the only significant difference in the everyday lineup heading into 2020 is the subtraction of 29-year-old Ozuna.

Point is, the Cardinals may never have a better chance to win another World Series with this core -- to win one more title with Molina and Wainwright -- than they do right now. This could be their last hurrah, and the organization should want to do everything possible to maximize this opportunity. Betts can help Molina and Wainwright get that one final World Series ring.

4. It's a short-term commitment

Betts will be a free agent after this coming season and he's made it pretty clear he intends to test the market. I don't blame him. He is in line for a $400 million mega-deal, or at least something north of the $330 million guarantee Bryce Harper received last year. Maybe you can convince Betts to sign a long-term extension. I wouldn't count on it. I'd plan on it being a one-year pickup.

While you'd rather have Betts for multiple years, the one-year term has it's advantages. It'll keep the prospect cost down, first and foremost. It'll still hurt to get a player this good, of course, but one year of Mookie is not as valuable as two or three years of Mookie, so you won't have to give up quite as much to get him. The price will be a little easier to swallow.

Secondly, you'll get a draft pick should Betts leave as a free agent. He's going to get a huge contract, so he's likely to reject the qualifying offer, and that would entitle the Cardinals to a supplemental first-round draft pick should he sign with another team. That would allow St. Louis to recoup a prospect after trading however many to get Mookie in the first place.

The Cardinals are on track to have a $163.6 million payroll on Opening Day, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Their Opening Day payroll was $162.6 million last year and $159.7 million the year before. Not much movement the last few years, huh? Maybe there's a way to offset the $27 million owed to Betts (i.e. include Fowler in the trade), but payroll seems to be an obstacle.

That said, payroll shouldn't be an obstacle, because teams are making money hand over fist nowadays. I'm surprised I haven't seen more fan uproar about St. Louis keeping payroll static the last few years. As noted, the NL Central is wide open, and this might be the club's last chance to win a title with Molina and Wainwright. They should invest in the roster, not maintain the status quo.

If payroll is truly that big a concern for the Cardinals, then the one-year commitment should appeal to them. Betts will come off the books after the season and not tie down their future payroll, which is particularly important with Jack Flaherty due his first arbitration raise in 2021. Betts requires a one-year payroll bump, not long-term payroll pain. And you get a draft pick after the season too.

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Chances are the Red Sox would seek a Betts package built around righty Dakota Hudson and top outfield prospect Dylan Carlson, plus another lower profile prospect or two. The Cardinals would presumably counter with package featuring a different pitcher (Genesis Cabrera? Austin Gomber? Daniel Ponce de leon?) and a different young outfielder (Tyler O'Neill? Lane Thomas?). 

Finding common ground on a trade won't be easy but the larger point remains: St. Louis should make a serious push to acquire Betts. He addresses their offensive needs and he'd help them win a wide open division as Molina and Co. run out the clock on their careers. I think the Cardinals need Betts more than the Dodgers or Padres, and there's still time to swoop in and get a deal done.