After a fairly embarrassing season-opening series in Atlanta, rookie Phillies manager Gabe Kapler rushed headlong into the criticisms by guaranteeing that his team would make the playoffs. For a time, that looked like an example of sage boldness. As recently as Aug. 7, Kapler's Phils were a season-best 15 games over .500. Roughly a month ago, they had a 2 1/2-game lead in the NL East, which is their largest margin of the 39 days they've spent in first place this season. As we head toward the final month of the regular season, though, Kapler's prediction is no longer on solid footing. 

Coming into Wednesday's slate, the Phillies are 70-62 -- i.e., they have the exact same record as the Rays -- and they've got a plus-one run differential for the season. In other words, the Phillies have basically been a .500 team at the run scored and runs allowed level. What's specifically hurt the case of late is that the Phillies have lost 13 of their last 19. Of those 19 games, 16 have come against the Padres, Mets, Blue Jays, and Nationals (all of their games against the Nats during this stretch came after Daniel Murphy was traded and Matt Adams was allowed to depart via waiver claim). In other words, that's a season-sinking run despite the fact that the schedule during said run was populated by bad to middling teams. 

So where does that leave Philly? At the moment, the SportsLine Projection Model (@SportsLine on Twitter) gives Kapler's squadron just a 22 percent chance of making the playoffs. It sounds even worse once you compare that figure to those of other NL contenders:

TeamPlayoff percentage as of Aug. 29

Cubs

99.1 percent

Braves

83.8 percent

Cardinals

83.8 percent

Dodgers

79.6 percent

Brewers

50.1 percent

Diamondbacks

40.2 percent

Rockies

30.0 percent

Phillies

22.0 percent

Make sure to check out SportsLine's daily pick sheet for insight about every game.

So the Phils have the eighth-highest playoff odds in NL, but of course just five teams make the playoffs in each league. That's not a good spot to be in at this late hour, especially when you're carrying the weight of a playoff guarantee. 

As for the road ahead, the Phillies' remaining opponents have an average winning percentage of .488. Among NL teams, only the Pirates have a lower figure the rest of the way. As well, the Phils will play the narrow majority of their remaining games at home. The defining stretch may begin on Sept. 3, when the Phillies play 15 straight against the Marlins, Mets, and Nationals. They badly need to wipe up during that cushiony expanse of schedule. If they do that, then they'll perhaps be positioned to make noise as the close out the regular season with four games against the Braves, four games against the Rockies, and three more against the Braves. 

But, again, the odds are against it, as SportsLine will attest. A 4 1/2-game deficit in the division is a large margin this time of year, and five teams are ahead of the Phillies in the wild-card queue. The Phillies are likely to notch their first winning season since 2011, but that's not the standard the manager laid out. If expectations hold, expect that Kapler guarantee to be disinterred and used against him once the regular season draws to a close. Such are the risks of making assurances.