Here's why Billy Wagner could be headed to the Hall of Fame
Billy Wagner is fifth in career saves and has better rate stats than many of the most highly-regarded closers of all-time. Should he get in the Hall of Fame?
By
Matt Snyder
•
4 min read
We're zeroing in on the early January reveal of the BBWAA 2016 Hall of Fame class, one certain to include Ken Griffey Jr. and maybe another player or two. As we lead up to that announcement, CBS Sports Eye on Baseball scribes are running through the serious candidates one day at a time.
More HOF: One-and-dones | Kendall | Griffey | Hoffman | Edmonds
Today's entry is elite closer Billy Wagner. He pitched nine seasons for the Astros, four for the Mets and two for the Phillies as well as stops with the Braves and Red Sox.
Now, this is the part where I ask you to be open-minded. Nothing is more annoying in Hall of Fame discussion season when people immediately scoff and scream "no!" or say something uncreative like "why not just let everyone in?" There are players who measure up pretty well to the already-established standard set and they deserve a few minutes of our time.
To start, Billy Wagner is fifth in major-league history in saves with 422. He has more than Hall of Famers Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter and Hoyt Wilhelm. There are different circumstances behind each of those names, of course, and we'll get to those.
For now, though, it's definitely worthwhile to say Wagner is top five all-time in saves.
How he got there is very impressive, too. Let's leave Mariano Rivera aside for obvious reasons and compare Wagner to Trevor Hoffman (second in saves), Lee Smith (third), John Franco (fourth) and the aforementioned Hall of Famers in some rate stats.
This chart shows just how dominant Wagner was in his career compared to some other greats in his specialization.
|
Pitcher, team
|
Save %
|
ERA
|
ERA+
|
K/9
|
WHIP
|
|
Billy Wagner
|
86
|
2.31
|
187
|
11.9
|
1.00
|
|
Trevor Hoffman
|
89
|
2.87
|
141
|
9.4
|
1.06
|
|
Lee Smith
|
82
|
3.03
|
132
|
8.7
|
1.26
|
|
John Franco
|
81
|
2.89
|
138
|
7.0
|
1.33
|
|
Dennis Eckersley*
|
85
|
2.85
|
unavailable
|
8.8
|
1.00
|
|
Rollie Fingers
|
76
|
2.90
|
120
|
6.9
|
1.16
|
|
Goose Gossage
|
73
|
3.01
|
126
|
7.5
|
1.23
|
|
Bruce Sutter
|
75
|
2.83
|
136
|
7.4
|
1.14
|
|
Hoyt Wilhelm
|
77
|
2.49
|
149
|
6.6
|
1.12
|
*Eckersley's numbers are only as a reliever, as to not punish him for his starter rates, and his appearances were sporadic enough to make a perfect ERA+ pretty tough to find.
How does Wagner measure up there? This is why I don't want anyone to be close-minded, because on a rate basis he's the best one there.
Of course, there are the aforementioned circumstances. The one-inning closer specialization evolved from a multi-inning terminator. Eckersley's a special case due to starting for so long before becoming a closer, so we'll toss him out now. But here are the rest of the guys in order of innings pitched:
1. Wilhelm, 2254 1/3
2. Gossage, 1809 1/3
3. Fingers, 1701 1/3
4. Smith, 1289 1/3
5. Franco, 1245 2/3
6. Hoffman, 1089 1/3
7. Sutter, 1042
8. Wagner, 903
That's a huge divide in workload between Wagner and the top three Hall of Famers. After that we have Smith and Franco, who aren't Hall of Famers, before Wagner's contemporary in Hoffman. Then there's Sutter, who many consider a dubious induction himself and is probably mostly there due to his role in popularizing the split-finger fastball. Wagner is still, say, two full seasons of closing behind even Sutter in innings.
There's also the fact that with the one-inning save now creating many more save chances these days, Wagner's 422 saves is a lot more attainable than Hoffman's 601. Francisco Rodriguez -- who is still only 33, by the way -- has 386 saves right now, so he could get to Wagner next year with a full season as the Tigers closer. Jonathan Papelbon, 34, has 349. Huston Street, 31, has 315. Craig Kimbrel is only 27 and already has 225 saves.
With Wagner, though, I feel it's more than the save. He was utterly dominant in his save chances. Again, see the chart above. Other than the lower number of chances, he was better than Hoffman and the hunch is Hoffman gets into the Hall one day.
A lingering thought is just how difficult it is to judge the specialization of closer. The modern-day closer doesn't even remotely resemble what Gossage and Fingers were. Some might feel that in this specialization, a pitcher has to blow the field away like Rivera did to even deserve consideration. In that case, Wagner's a no.
Others might want to judge the closer similar to how other positions are judged by weighing them against their fellow closers from the same era. If we judge Wagner against his peers throughout the duration of his career, he's probably the second-best closer in terms of dominance behind Rivera and loses out to Hoffman in the minds of many due to the big difference in total saves and workload.
Still, third-best in a generation is pretty stellar.
Before we go, it must be noted that Wagner's postseason resume is pretty bad. He closed down three of four save chances, but in 11 2/3 playoff innings, he had a 10.03 ERA. Slipping up in a few outings in such a small sample wouldn't drive me away and I'm not alone, but many others will count this against Wagner.
In all, Wagner's going to be a fun case to watch in terms of possibly either paving the way or closing the door on future candidates like K-Rod, Papelbon, Joe Nathan or Kimbrel. It's hard to see Wagner ever getting in, but I wouldn't mind him getting a lot more credit than he's getting and being a bit closer to Hoffman in the Hall of Fame discussions. He was scary elite for a long time.
If nothing else, Billy Wagner deserves to be seriously considered instead of discarded quickly.
