Hoffman's Hall of Fame case is good, but not as good as you think
Trevor Hoffman is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time. He has a good case for induction, but it's not as good as you may think.
By
Mike Axisa
•
4 min read
More HOF: One-and-dones | Kendall | Griffey
With the Winter Meetings firmly in the rear-view mirror and the BBWAA Hall of Fame vote announcement less than a month away, we're now looking at individual Hall candidates and examining their cases. Today we continue with Trevor Hoffman.
Hoffman, of course, is known for being the longtime closer of the San Diego Padres, but he actually started his career as a light-hitting shortstop prospect with the Reds. His early-career timeline is pretty interesting:
June 1989: Drafted by Reds in 11th round of 1989 draft.
1991 season: Converts from shortstop to pitcher.
November 1992: Selected by Marlins from Reds in 1992 expansion draft.
June 1993: Traded by Marlins to Padres in the five-player Gary Sheffield trade.
The rest, as they say, is history.
Hoffman made his MLB debut with the Marlins in 1993 -- he threw 35 2/3 innings for Florida before being traded -- and he took over as San Diego's closer in 1994. A shoulder injury that season forced him to learn his trademark changeup because his fastball lost velocity and effectiveness.
Hoffman was the Padres closer from 1995-2008, which is the kind of longevity that is unheard of among relief pitchers these days. He led the league in saves twice -- 53 in 1998 and 46 in 2006 -- and was a seven-time All-Star. Hoffman finished second in the NL Cy Young voting twice (1998, 2006) and had two other top six finishes (1996, 1998).
From 1994-2008, Hoffman led all pitchers with 549 saves -- Mariano Rivera was a distant second with 482, Billy Wagner and even more distant third with 385 -- and he did that despite being limited to only nine innings in 2003 due to shoulder trouble. Hoffman had the fourth best ERA (2.67), sixth best ERA+ (150) and tenth best strikeout rate (9.78 K/9) among the 104 relievers to throw at least 500 innings from 1994-2008.
During his absolute peak from 1996-2004, Hoffman saved 337 games with a 2.47 ERA (162 ERA+), a 0.99 WHIP and a 10.5 K/9. He was the premier closer in the NL despite having an unconventional style -- Hoffman's fastball rarely cracked 90 mph for much of his career, and he instead relied on the deception of one of the best changeups in history.
Hoffman closed out his career with two seasons with the Brewers and retired in 2010 with 601 career saves, the most in history at the time. (Rivera later passed Hoffman to become the all-time saves king.) He was the first pitcher in history to reach 500 saves and later 600 saves. Here's where Hoffman ranks historically among relievers (min. 500 IP for rate stats):
Saves: 601 (second)
Save percentage: 88.8 percent (eighth among pitchers with 100+ saves)
ERA: 2.89 (16th)
ERA+: 141 (13th)
WHIP: 1.06 (fifth)
K/9: 9.36 (20th)
WAR: 28.0 (seventh)
The case against Hoffman's Hall of Fame candidacy involves his lack of postseason success -- he had a 3.46 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, four saves and two blown saves in 12 playoff appearances -- and the fact he wasn't as "dominant" as his contemporaries. Rivera allowed fewer baserunners and had way more postseason success. Wagner struck out 63 more batters in 189 1/3 fewer innings.
Hoffman is more of a compiler, and I don't intend that as a knock. He was a very good pitcher for a very long time in an age where most relievers are lucky to spend four years in the big leagues. Hoffman's rate stat performance is on par with guys like Sparky Lyle and Tom Henke. The difference is modern reliever usage, allowing him to pile up more saves.
The voting body has been more open to inducting relievers into the Hall of Fame in recent years -- there are only five relievers in Cooperstown (Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckerlsey, Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage) and three have been inducted since 2004 (Eckersley, Sutter, Gossage) -- but all five can be seen as pioneers.
Wilhelm and Finger each spent more than a decade as the all-time saves king. Eckersley became the first modern one-inning closer after a lengthy career as a starter. Sutter is credited for popularizing the split-finger fastball, and Gossage is the model max-effort fireman who would throw three innings to get a save if necessary. Hoffman lacks a similar claim to fame beyond being the first to 500 (and 600) saves.
That said, Hoffman's saves total is not insignificant. Saves are like wins. They're not all that good for evaluating performance but career totals can be instructive. You have to be a pretty good pitcher to stick around long enough to win 200+ games, for example, just like you have to be a pretty good pitcher to record 400+ saves. Hoffman reached that threshold -- only five pitchers in history have 400+ saves -- and then some.
At the same time, the Hall of Fame voting body is getting smarter when it comes to evaluating relievers. A huge saves total won't wow voters like it would have a few years ago. Hoffman's ability to limit runs, limit baserunners, and record strikeouts -- things he did very well in his career -- will factor into his Hall of Fame case as much as his gaudy saves total.
According to Jay Jaffe's objective JAWS system, Hoffman falls well short of the Hall of Fame standard for relief pitchers both in terms of overall value and peak value. As of this writing, @NotMrTibbs has collected 50 public Hall of Fame ballots and Hoffman has appeared on 36, or 72 percent. Seventy-five percent is needed for induction.
My guess is Hoffman will indeed be inducted into the Hall of Fame one day, but not this year. The ballot is still pretty stuffed and that works against him. He could lose some votes simply due to the numbers crunch. Voters are not allowed to vote for more than 10 players per year.
Either way, Hall of Fame or not, Hoffman had a tremendous career and will go down as one of the best modern closers in history. His longevity is truly incredible.
Up next: The cases for and against Jim Edmonds.
