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The final day of the 2025 Major League Baseball season is just more than two weeks away. While things wind down, races heat up. Three division races are within three games and there are four more teams within three games of a wild card spot. Some of the individual awards races might be over, though the odds suggest AL MVP is in play. 

Via FanDuel: 

So Judge is a favorite, maybe even a strong one, but doesn't have this thing in the bag just yet. 

Here's a look at the numbers, heading into Wednesday's games:

Raleigh: .240/.349/.574, 161 OPS+, 19 2B, 0 3B, 53 HR, 113 RBI, 95 R, 14 SB, 5.7 bWAR, 7.5 fWAR

Judge: .321/.442/.660, 203 OPS+, 28 2B, 2 3B, 44 HR, 98 RBI, 115 R, 11 SB, 7.6 bWAR, 7.9 fWAR

At first glance, we've got a bloodbath there. Yeah, the home runs and RBI for Raleigh are impressive, but Judge is beating him by 81 points of batting average, 93 in on-base percentage and 86 in slugging percentage. The WAR, at least Baseball Reference's version, reflects the blowout nature of the race right now. Some things could bring it a bit closer, though.

First, we have to consider here that Raleigh is a catcher. Yes, he serves as a DH sometimes, but he's caught 109 times compared to 33 at DH. Meanwhile, Judge has barely played the outfield since a late July injury and has instead served mostly as a DH. 

There's history, too, which is usually Judge's department. Raleigh has already set a record for home runs in a season by a primary catcher and he's very close to the record for home runs by a switch hitter (Mickey Mantle's 54). That can sway voters. 

How much will the team success factor in? Let's say the Mariners win the AL West while the Yankees have a settle for a wild card. Might that matter? 

I don't think we're there just yet, but voter fatigue has long been a real thing in MVP voting. Judge won the 2022 and 2024 AL MVPs. Meanwhile, the Mariners only have two MVPs ever (Ken Griffey Jr., 1997 and Ichiro Suzuki, 2001). 

There's supposedly an east coast bias to deal with. Now, in theory, it shouldn't matter. The BBWAA vote has just two voters from each chapter, meaning there are the same number of Mariners voters as Yankees voters. For those who still believe it's a factor, consider that 12 of the 15 AL chapters come in either the Eastern or Central time zones (yes, two of the teams in the AL West are in the Central time zone). 

Right now, I think Judge would win pretty convincingly, but the race is not yet over. 

That said, keep an eye on those home runs for Raleigh. Sixty home runs shouldn't move the needle significantly more than 59, just to throw two numbers out there, but those shiny, round numbers really catch eyeballs and brains. Remember, the only AL players to ever reach 60 homers were Judge, Babe Ruth and Roger Maris. If we loop in the NL, we'll only add Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. If a catcher gets to 60 home runs and his team wins its division, I feel like a good number of voters will be swayed to his side, so that's Raleigh's path.

Really, that's what I think this race boils down to. It's Raleigh's home run total and, especially given that he's a catcher, whether it can get high enough to convince voters to bail on the far superior triple-slash line. I'll predict here Judge wins the award and Raleigh finishes with something like 55 or 56 homers, but this isn't over yet. Raleigh has a shot.