MLB Hot Stove Rumors: Teams targeting the Brewers' 31-year-old breakout pitcher
Junior Guerra is drawing trade interest around the league
This is not a good offseason to need pitching. The free agent class doesn't have much to offer, which means competition on the trade market is going to be fierce. There's a ton of demand but very little supply.
Clubs are casting such a wide net for pitching this offseason that Brewers right-hander Junior Guerra is drawing trade interest. Usually players who were 31-year-old rookies don't garner much attention, but there's nothing usual about this offseason.
Multiple teams inquiring on #Brewers RHP Junior Guerra in trade talks; a pre-arb starter, had 2.81 ERA, 1.126 WHIP in 20 GS this year. @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 18, 2016
Guerra made his brief MLB debut with the White Sox in 2015 before being claimed off waivers by the Brewers last offseason. He rewarded Milwaukee by going 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA (152 ERA+) in 20 starts and 121 2/3 innings in 2016. That's waiver wire gold right there.
The Brewers are in the middle of a big rebuild and it stands to reason they should listen to trade offers for everyone, especially 31-year-old breakout players. The question is how do you value Guerra? Is he a late-bloomer who will provide cheap production in the five years before he's eligible for free agency, or a journeyman who just had a career year?

There are reasons to believe Guerra is for real, though perhaps not sub-3.00 ERA real. He posted league-average strikeout (20.3 percent), walk (8.7 percent), and ground-ball (45.3 percent) rates this past season, and while there's nothing sexy about league average, it is pretty valuable. League-average pitchers routinely get north of $10 million per year as free agents.
Furthermore, Guerra has a true out-pitch with his splitter. Hitters missed with an astronomical 40.8 percent of their swings against the pitch. Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka, who is widely considered to have the best splitter in baseball, had a 30.0 whiff rate with his splitter, for comparison. Guerra has good low-to-mid-90s velocity with his heater and a split-finger fastball that drops off the table.
Here's some video:
This isn't necessarily a guy who did it with smoke and mirrors. He wasn't out there throwing in the upper-80s with sloppy secondary pitches. The splitter is a difference maker and the key to his success. Pair it with a good fastball and a hard curveball and you have a bonafide big-league starter.
At the same time, Guerra is already 31 years old, and he'll be 32 in January. He had some injuries earlier in his career as he made his way through the minors and independent ball and winter leagues before finally getting an extended opportunity in the big leagues this season. Guerra's at the age when you'd expect some age-related decline to set in.
Given where they are right now -- the Brewers lost 89 games in 2016 and figure to be looking up at the Cubs in the NL Central for a while -- I think it makes sense for the team to cash Guerra in as a trade chip this winter. His stock may never be higher. They picked him up for nothing, got 120 good innings out of him, and are in position to turn him into prospects.
Guerra is a really great story. You can't help but root for a guy who waited such a long time to get to the big leagues, then thrived when he finally got there. Looking at this practically, the Brewers have a starter with a very limited track record and actual trade value. They should be looking to turn him into prospects to continue the rebuild, not hoping he's a late-bloomer.
















