The first four days of the 2018 MLB regular season are in the books. Only four teams remain undefeated (Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals) while four are still looking for their first win (Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres). The early batting average leader? Seattle Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger. He is 5 for 8 (.625).  

April is simultaneously the best and worst time of the year for baseball analysis. It's the best because baseball is back! Spring training is fun in its own way, but there's nothing quite like meaningful baseball. It's also the worst because everything that has happened so far has happened in a small sample size. An extremely small sample size. Tough to know what is part of a trend and what is simple randomness. That's never stopped us before though, and there's no reason it should stop us now. 

Here is just one our 10 early season observations.  

Xander Bogaerts is hitting the ball hard again

A year ago Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts put up an average-ish .273/.343/.403 (95 OPS+) batting line with 10 home runs in 148 games. That was down considerably from his .294/.356/.446 (110 OPS+) line with 21 home runs in 2016. 

Furthermore, look at his first and second half splits:

PA

AVG/OBP/SLG

OPS+

HR

XBH

First Half

351

.303/.359/.447

116

6

30

Second Half

284

.235/.324/.347

81

4

18

Not coincidentally, Bogaerts played through a hand injury in the second half, a hand injury that sapped his ability to hit the ball hard. Makes sense, right? You can't hit properly if you can't grip the bat properly. Consider his hard contact rate as the season progressed:

xander-bogerts-hard-contact-2017.jpg
Xander Bogaerts didn't hit the ball all that hard for much of the second half last year. FanGraphs

A great big dip in hard contact coinciding with the hand injury? Well I'll be.

So far this year Bogaerts is 8 for 17 (.471) with five doubles, one homer, and a 33.3 percent hard contact rate, which is right in line with his pre-hand injury hard contact rate. It's a small sample, obviously. It is encouraging though. Bogaerts appears to have regained strength in the hand and is doing more damage when he makes contact. 

As frustrating as Bogaerts can be, he is very talented, and the hand injury contributed to last year's second half fade more than anything. Now that his hand is healthy, he's back to making an impact.