MLB Winter Meetings Preview: Team by team guide for the American League
A look at what each team in the American League has to address at the Winter Meetings
Major League Baseball's owners and players union dodged a completely insane and pointless work stoppage last week, saving the sport from driving itself into a ditch and leaving the greedy legacy of Bud Selig, Jerry Reinsdorf and the screwjob of 1994 intact.
With the fate of the baseball world no longer hanging in the balance, let's turn our direction to this week's winter meetings. For four days, execs from all 30 teams gather in deadbolted suites, eschewing daylight in favor of wild-and-woolly deal negotiations that will, more often than not, fail miserably.
Still, Hot Stove season is never dull. Every team has holes to fill and money to spend this winter. We might even see a handful of star players change addresses via blockbuster deals. Here's a sneak peek at some of the moves that each team could make in the near future, possibly as soon as this week's meetings in Washington, D.C.
Here's a snapshot of each American League team after we covered the National League on Friday.
AL WINTER MEETINGS GUIDE:
Baltimore Orioles
With Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters and Pedro Alvarez all free agents, general manager Dan Duquette and company will have work to do to restock the lineup. Pedro Alvarez could be a much cheaper alternative to Trumbo as a re-sign candidate, and a market flooded with one-dimensional sluggers should allow every team that's not the Blue Jays (Kendrys Morales' accountant says hi) to avoid making dunderheaded decisions on DH types this winter. Going in a different direction to replace Trumbo could help upgrade the team's defense, and Angel Pagan could fit the bill in a corner-outfield spot on a short-term deal. Wieters' market value has plunged along with his recent performance, so he might be re-signable at a discounted price.
Buying off the bargain rack has been Duquette's typical approach in Baltimore. So if the O's try to upgrade the back of their rotation (Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy could be solid; Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jimenez not so much), a buy-low on someone like Derek Holland or Doug Fister would seem more likely than a multiyear deal for a flashier name.
Boston Red Sox
The poor man's Edgar Martinez has retired, leaving a gaping hole in Boston's lineup. If there was ever a good time to go DH-shopping it's right now, with Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Napoli, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind, Brandon Moss and a zillion other similar players up for grabs. With tons of money at their disposal and a buyer's market for bats, the Sox can pretty much call their shot when it comes to asset allocation.
One logical option: Avoid spending nine figures for Encarnacion, invest in a less expensive option, then load up on pitching. A Chris Sale trade can't be ruled out, with Yoan Moncada leading a deep stable of prospects who could be flipped. Count on one or more bullpen upgrades too -- a David Robertson trade with the sell-mode White Sox, or simply buying Mark Melancon, Kenley Jansen or Aroldis Chapman on the open market could all work for big-money Boston.
Chicago White Sox
Two years ago, it looked like the White Sox might finally turn the corner. A hyper-aggressive offseason netted a boatload of talent, and a young core led by Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton seemed likely to blend with all those veteran imports and build a contender on the South Side. Fast forward to today, and GM Rick Hahn is telling other teams that any player with less than four years of controllable service time could be had in an offseason trade. That keeps Quintana, Eaton, Carlos Rodon and Tim Anderson in pale hose, while opening the door for pretty much anyone else.
The shopping list starts with Sale, a bona fide ace who I ranked as the second-best trade commodity among all starting pitchers last winter. A 27-year-old perennial Cy Young contender owed just $38 million over the next three seasons should fetch a king's ransom, allowing the Sox to load up on younger talent. Sale is hardly alone in being an attractive potential piece for other teams to pursue. Closer David Robertson, outfielder Melky Cabrera, slugging third baseman Todd Frazier and Abreu could all bring back ample goodies, if the White Sox are serious about blowing things up. If you had to pick one team to watch at the winter meetings, this is the one.
Cleveland Indians
Falling an eyelash short of winning their first World Series in 68 years, you would think the Indians might have peaked in 2016. But Cleveland ran through much of the regular season and playoffs without four key contributors: All-Star outfielder Michael Brantley, defensively sound catcher Yan Gomes and hard-throwing right-handed starters Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. A return to health for all of the above, combined with Andrew Miller (and underrated platoon outfielder Brandon Guyer) being in the fold from day one, should make the Indians the favorite to repeat as AL Central champs.
The biggest hole left to fill is the one created by Mike Napoli's free agency. Napoli is reportedly seeking three years on the open market and has pretty much no chance of getting that at age 35, evening coming off a 34-homer bounceback season. Cleveland brass has countered with a one-year offer. A two-year deal could be a happy medium for a player who has become a human hashtag and organizational favorite. If the two sides can't come to terms again, there's no shortage of 30-something DH candidates out there who can be had inexpensively.
Detroit Tigers
MLB's new luxury tax threshold is $195 million, and the Tigers ended last season at $216 million. That's spurring the Motor City Kitties into at least a minor form of sell mode. They're reportedly shopping slugging outfielder J.D. Martinez, and he would make a great alternative to some of the more expensive bats on the free-agent market with just one year and $11.75 million left on his cheapie two-year deal. That would leave Detroit with two outfield holes to fill, though it'd be interesting to see what lefty-swinging 25-year-old Steven Moya might do in the bigger part of a platoon, given some of the power numbers he posted in the minors (35 homers and a .555 slugging percentage at Double-A Erie in 2014).
The more tantalizing speculation has revolved around the possibility of a monster deal involving Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander. Both remain star-caliber players, but both are also owed enormous sums of money long after they exit their prime years. The timing for that kind of deal isn't great, with top-market clubs like the Dodgers and Yankees trying to hold the line on salaries. Further complicating matters is 87-year-old owner Mike Ilitch, who's largely responsible for the Tigers' financial mess in the first place, having called for huge deals-turned-albatrosses for Prince Fielder and others in an effort to win it all as quickly as possible, damn the consequences. Michael Fulmer delivered a scintillating Rookie of the Year performance in 2016; breakouts by other young players (Nick Castellanos? Daniel Norris?) become pretty much a necessity if the Tigers hope to contend after shedding payroll.
Houston Astros
Tankapalooza, and the 0.0 local TV ratings that came with it, ended a while ago. Now, after one playoff berth and one near-miss, the Astros are throwing their weight around. So far this offseason they've pulled off a multiplayer trade for new catcher Brian McCann, scooped up outfielder Nori Aoki off waivers from the Mariners, reeled in free-agent outfielder Josh Reddick on a four-year contract and tapped fifth starter Charlie Morton for a two-year deal.
Carlos Beltran is on board as the team's new DH, completing a lineup shopping spree that should give Houston one of the most potent 1-through-9s in the league. The bigger need now lies in the rotation. The 2015 version of Dallas Keuchel is probably never coming back, and the Astros could use more reliable options if they hope to challenge the Rangers for AL West supremacy. Whether that's a trade for a star like Chris Sale or another cash splash for someone like Ivan Nova, might as well keep going, instead of taking half measures.
Kansas City Royals
This one's tricky. The Royals missed the playoffs in 2016 after winning two straight AL pennants. An army of core players -- Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, Wade Davis, Danny Duffy and Jarrod Dyson -- all become free agents at the end of next season. So what do you do? Recognize that this could be the final year of the championship window and load up accordingly? Keep the core intact, make a key move or two, then hope for a bounceback season? Hold the line on salaries and try to figure out a way to add talent without affecting the bottom line? Or start the rebuild now?
The bet here is for something between options two and three. Replacing Kendrys Morales at DH should be cheap and easy, given we're in a market where NL home-run champ Chris Carter just got non-tendered. A Doug Fister type on a one-year deal should fare no worse than 2016 pinata-turned-Miami Marlin Edinson Volquez. And the still-stacked bullpen should paper over some of the team's other weaknesses. That said, if K.C. sits around .500 or worse by July 4, don't bet against a passel of trades. Rarely in baseball history have we seen one team with so much premium talent all set to hit free agency at once. The Royals would be fools to squander either opportunity -- a playoff run or a summer fire sale.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels finished fourth in the AL West last season at 74-88, wasting yet another off-the-charts season by the best player of the past half-decade, Mike Trout. Yet coming into the winter meetings, Fangraphs is bullish on the Halos, predicting a jump to 85 wins. Having Trout as the favorite to win his third MVP in 2017 (by the numbers, it would/should be his sixth) gives the Angels a huge head start, on the order of seven to 10 wins. But the analytical site's projection system also sees strong results from the top four members of the Angels rotation: Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, Ricky Nolasco, and Matt Shoemaker.
Color me skeptical. Nominal ace Richards made just six starts in 2016, tore his elbow ligament and will be trying to come back without having Tommy John surgery. Skaggs has always had potential, but he has only made 10 combined starts in the past two seasons following his own Tommy John surgery. Nolasco flashed a 3.21 ERA in 11 starts after coming over in a summer trade with the Twins, but we have years of evidence to suggest he's not that good, despite decent-to-good strikeout-to-walk rates. Shoemaker is probably the safest bet of the bunch, and his résumé is hardly perfect, his 2016 season ending early on a line drive off his head. The Angels have more than $122 million committed to just 11 players (including, incredibly, Josh Hamilton) and they have major holes at catcher, second and in the bullpen in addition to that shaky rotation. GM Billy Eppler would need to pull off a bargain-hunting winter for the ages to shove this team back into a playoff race.
Minnesota Twins
Brand new GM Thad Levine wasted little time making his mark with the Twins, tossing a three-year, $24.5 million contract at catcher Jason Castro. That move signaled a sharp change of direction for Minnesota. Castro batted just .210/.307/.377 in 2016 (and an even worse .211/.283/.365 in 2015). But he's also one of the best pitch-framers in the game, a skill now starting to be more heavily rewarded by quant-ier teams. A franchise that has forever relied primarily on superior scouting to battle higher-revenue rivals now looks poised to more heavily mix data analysis into the mix.
So what's next? A roster makeover, so that the Twins can be ready to contend by 2018 or 2019. They already said goodbye to veterans Trevor Plouffe, Kurt Suzuki and Tommy Milone and Brian Dozier could be next. Dozier blasted 42 homers last season and offers elite power for a middle infielder. He is also owed a paltry $15 million over the final two years of his contract. Few contending teams have gaping holes at second, though the prospect-rich Dodgers are iffy at that position and have the kind of young pitching talent the Twins crave. Even if they pull off that kind of deal, and even if talented 22-year-old righty Jose Berrios takes a step forward after posting an 8.02 ERA in his rookie season, expect Minnesota to shop for pitching at next week's meetings. After Ervin Santana and the promise of Berrios, the rest of the starting five is ...
New York Yankees
The great race to the middle continues. Over the past few months, the Yankees (the Yankees!) have shed high-priced veterans for high-level prospects, dealing Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Carlos Beltran, Ivan Nova and Brian McCann. A loaded bullpen helped produce a 24-12 record in one-run games, which helped keep the Yanks in contention much longer than expected last season. Still, the obvious goal here is to play respectable baseball for another couple years, nurture young major-league stars like Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius plus all those great prospects, then stage an all-out assault on a 2018-19 free-agent class that will be headed by Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson.
So what will that mean for this week's proceedings at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center? Reports have the Yankees looking at Aroldis Chapman, though the odds of them giving anyone a five-year deal fall somewhere between slim and none. That was underscored by the Yanks' decision to settle for Matt Holliday on a one-year deal instead of Edwin Encarnacion for far longer. Starting pitching remains a priority too, with no thrilling options behind the top three of Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia. After the big talk dies down, bet on something like Jason Hammel for the number-four spot, and maybe a discounted Brad Ziegler or Koji Uehara for seventh-inning duty
Oakland A's
The World Series just ended a month ago and already we have a strong contender for best offseason signing: the two-year, $11 million deal Oakland gave to Matt Joyce, a righty-mashing outfielder who'll make a tiny fraction of what Josh Reddick and other fancier-named players will see this winter.
Problem is, Oakland's hit rate will need to be nearly perfect this offseason if they hope to claw their way back to respectability next year. The new collective bargaining agreement cut off Oakland's revenue-sharing spigot and robust new revenue streams aren't coming anytime soon, with the A's marooned at the outdated Coliseum for the foreseeable future. They'll likely seek help in center field and at catcher, and might look for another bat if they trade on-base fiend Stephen Vogt as speculated. Still, the winter's most exciting move could be to trade staff ace Sonny Gray -- par for the course in Oakland, where the supposedly tough challenges of the Moneyball era seem quaint compared to what now lies ahead.
Seattle Mariners
Jerry Dipoto moved quickly to remake the roster last offseason, making a flurry of complementary moves that nearly hoisted Seattle to the playoffs. He's at it again this winter, pocketing Danny Valencia and Carlos Ruiz to augment the team's depth, then swinging a big deal that sent right-hander Taijuan Walker (and more) to Arizona for 2016 breakout shortstop Jean Segura (and more). The ink isn't even dry on a two-year deal Dipoto gave to bullpen lefty Marc Rzepczynski.
Next up? Some rotation help to make up for Walker's departure. Former Mariner Doug Fister has been mentioned as an option. With Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano and Hisashi Iwakuma all in their mid-30s and Felix Hernandez no longer the world-beater he once was, plus the longest playoff drought in baseball, M's fans might be wishing for something a little better.
Tampa Bay Rays
They're going to wait. Strapped with the worst attendance and least lucrative local TV deals in the majors, the Rays aren't likely to move early on any player of note, figuring that bargains will come later in the offseason -- likely after the winter meetings, after the new year, maybe even on into February. "Early offseason signings are typically the result of a very competitive market for those players," new GM Erik Neander told Tampa Bay Times writer Marc Topkin. "Sometimes it's difficult to contend with that, but not always. Our job is to be prepared, try to do our evaluations correctly, wait for the right opportunity to arise and be in position to strike when it does."
It might not all be Snoresville, though. Few teams in baseball can match the Rays' under-30 pitching quintet of Chris Archer, Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly and Blake Snell, and all but the oft-injured Cobb could be highly attractive trade candidates. The Rays finished 27th in on-base percentage last season and could use upgrades at multiple positions, most notably behind the plate. Moving Archer might not make sense given the right-hander is coming off a down season but also comes with a ludicrously team-friendly contract, thus spiking his asking price above what most teams might be willing to pay. But Odorizzi or Smyly could fit the bill for a team looking for young, talented, cost-controlled pitching. The Rays would just have to make sure they're not short-changed: With a tiny budget every year, the only way they're likely to buy exciting talent is via trade.
Texas Rangers
Andrew Cashner is a nice one-year gamble for a rotation that seems to grapple with multiple major injuries every season. There's still plenty of work left to be done, though. Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez hitting free agency (plus an aging, injury-prone Shin-Soo Choo being far from a sure thing) creates multiple holes between the outfield and DH spots. The good news is that Texas now gets full seasons of Jonathan Lucroy and Jeremy Jeffress, addressing what would have been two more problem spots.
So where might the Rangers shop? Texas could be a candidate to snag Andrew McCutchen, if Texas believes that positioning (and not a huge erosion of his skills) caused Cutch's defensive numbers to plummet in 2016. This team could also use a No. 3 starter behind co-aces Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. One personal rooting interest: Young slugger Joey Gallo staying put, so we can finally see what his powerful lefty bat might do with 500 plate appearances in hitter-happy Arlington.
Toronto Blue Jays
Ugh. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista might not be coming back, but Jays management's insistence that the team find backup plans as quickly as possible pushed them into an indefensible two-year deal for bench jockey Justin Smoak and a potentially uglier three-year pact with aging, injury-prone, one-dimensional, bet-your-life-on-a-decline DH Kendrys Morales (if you're a Jays fan, try not to punch yourself in the face as you read this). This all feels like the beginning of a half-assed attempt to stay competitive, ending in an 82-80 snoozefest.
Of course, many complained when the Jays let David Price go and watched him sign with the division-rival Red Sox, only to see free agents Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ (along with homegrown beast Aaron Sanchez) lead a pitching renaissance in Toronto. To salvage this offseason, luring multiskilled outfielder Dexter Fowler north of the border would be a great start, giving the Jays a jolt of speed and on-base percentage while also drastically upgrading an outfield defense that was hideous in the corners last season. The Jays have been similarly linked to Curtis Granderson, who would bring a welcome lefty bat and playable defense in his own right. It would take considerably less to pry Jay Bruce from the Mets, for good reason: He's another Michael Saunders, but at $13 million. Non, merci.
















