Phillies Opening Day: Gabe Kapler's debut featured some head-scratching calls, beginning with benching Odubel Herrera
Kapler's Phillies dropped their season opener to the Braves
Gabe Kapler made his managerial debut on Thursday, guiding his Philadelphia Phillies against the Atlanta Braves.
Despite Kapler's inexperience in the dugout, he's already standing on odd ground. He seems about as likely to revolutionize managing as he is to lose his charges and get fired a season in. He's bold and progressive and willing to try new things -- like have his corner outfielders swap spots depending on the batter's tendencies -- but he's also stubborn and divisive and at-times controversial -- see the Nick Francona mess from their time with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Accordingly, his every move is going to be examined and second-guessed in a way that outpaces the normal rookie skipper who is placed in charge of an on-the-rise club.
The critical analysis of Kapler began with his first official lineup card -- or, specifically, with him leaving center fielder Odubel Herrera on the bench. Kapler cited Aaron Nola's groundball tendencies and the Phillies' matchups as the reasons for Aaron Altherr's insertion into the lineup. Herrera, predictably, was none too pleased:
Gabe Kapler said Odubel Herrera isn’t in the #Phillies lineup based on matchups, both offensive and defensive. Kapler has lineups built about a week out and told Herrera he will be playing a lot. Message: this is just one game.
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) March 29, 2018
Odubel Herrera on not being in lineup: "I don't like it." Gabe Kapler said he is playing matchups and Herrera will play a lot over next few days. Kapler said he doesn't want a player happy to sit, but will construct lineups to win that day's game. It's a whole new ballgame
— Jim Salisbury (@JSalisburyNBCS) March 29, 2018
Kapler is right in that Nola does boast a healthy groundball rate (51 percent for his career). The catch is that by rendering center-field defense irrelevant -- or trivial -- he essentially said that offense was the determining factor. That's where the situation gets sticky.
It's true that Altherr outhit Herrera in 2017, but Herrera has been better over their careers. Because Herrera bats lefty and Altherr righty, and because northpaw Julio Teheran was on the mound, it would seem to make sense to roll with Herrera. Indeed, the pair's career splits bear out that Herrera (.799 OPS) has been superior to Altherr (.777) versus righties. Kapler has more information than what's provided on a Baseball Reference splits page, yet without knowing what he was looking at, it almost seems like he was putting too much weight on last year's numbers, when Altherr feasted on righties across nearly 300 plate appearances.
At maximum, Kapler's decision seems justifiable only by stamping into the murky world of micro splits and small-sample sizes. At minimum, there's a strong case to be made that Herrera should have started over Altherr regardless of who was on the mound for the Phils.
Alas, that wasn't Kapler's only decision to draw backlash. During the game, he elected to go to the bullpen earlier than expected. The Phillies lead 5-0 with one out in the bottom of the sixth when Kapler removed Nola, who had thrown just 68 pitches on the afternoon. It's not clear if Kapler wanted to be conservative with Nola's pitch count or his exposure to the Braves lineup, or if he just wanted to make the most of his nine-man bullpen. Whatever the reasoning, Kapler's call for Hoby Milner backfired, as Freddie Freeman hit a two-run blast a few pitches later.
The Phillies would go on to blow the lead, permitting the Braves three runs in the bottom of the eighth and then three more in the ninth thanks to a Nick Markakis walk-off home run. Along the way, Kapler used four other relievers: Luis Garcia, Adam Morgan, Edubray Ramos, and closer Hector Neris. Ramos and Neris were particularly ineffective, combining to allow three hits, two walks, two home runs, and three runs in the span of nine batters faced. Credit Kapler for using his closer in the ninth inning of a tied game on the road. For what it's worth, Pat Neshek, who finished last season with a 1.59 ERA and with 11.5 strikeouts per walk and who was guaranteed $16.5 million by the Phillies during the winter, sat out the opener with a lat injury.
Gabe Kapler said Pat Neshek was unavailable to pitch because of a lat issue.
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) March 30, 2018
Obviously there's no need to draw sweeping conclusions from one game -- not for players, not for managers -- but this is the reality of Kapler. Eschewing tradition also means eschewing the protection that comes from using the tried-and-true methodology. Kapler may eventually reinvent aspects of managing. Until then, he's going to be questioned anytime a decision fails.
















