Phillies vs. Diamondbacks: How compromised bullpens could be deciding NLCS Game 5 factor for Philly, Arizona
Both teams have used their relievers heavily over the last two days
By
Mike Axisa
•
7 min read
The National League Championship Series has become a war of attrition. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies both used their bullpens heavily in Game 4 (and only slightly less heavily in Game 3) and the D-backs won the battle Saturday night. Their thrilling late-inning comeback evened the series at 2-2. The best-of-seven is now a best-of-three.
"We're in the middle of a journey," D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said after Game 4. "It's a three-game series. We're not going to lose focus. We are going to keep that competitive edge and that competitive focus. I can guarantee you that."
The D-backs used eight relievers as part of their planned bullpen game in Game 4. Setup man Ryan Thompson threw two innings and faced nine batters. None of the other seven relievers got more than five outs or faced more than six batters. By design, no Phillies hitter saw the same pitcher more than once. Every at-bat was a new look.
As for the Phillies, they used seven relievers behind ineffective starter Cristopher Sánchez in Game 4, and none of their relievers got more than five outs or faced more than six batters. The last four relievers they used faced 15 batters and got five outs. Arizona pushed across one run in the seventh and three in the eighth to steal Game 4.
Both clubs were able to lean on their bullpens in Game 4 knowing their ace is going in Game 5. Zack Wheeler and Zac Gallen will be entrusted to pitch deep into the game. Seven-plus innings would be ideal. Six innings feels imperative. Five innings is the absolute bare minimum. Any less than that and either team would be in real trouble, for more reasons than one.
"I couldn't think of a better starting pitcher to have tomorrow knowing that Zac is going to be walking in here and will give us as many pitches as he possibly can," Lovullo said after Game 4. "Then at the back of that, we're going to piece together the bullpen the best way we know how. I'll tell you right now, it's a three-game series and everybody is going to be available tomorrow."
Sunday is an off-day, so there is a built-in rest day coming. Getting to Sunday, though, might not be so easy. Historically, teams with a 3-2 lead in a best-of-seven have gone on to win the series 71% of the time. In the regular season, a team might "punt" a game like Game 5, and let their long reliever wear it to avoid overworking the bullpen. That's not an option in the postseason.
With that in mind, let's take stock of each team's bullpen heading into the all-important Game 5 on Saturday night.
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Game 4 pitches | Games 3 pitches | |
|---|---|---|
RHP Paul Sewald | 22 | 21 |
RHP Kevin Ginkel | 12 | 14 |
RHP Ryan Thompson | 23 | 11 |
RHP Miguel Castro | 19 | 0 |
LHP Andrew Saalfrank | 25 | 15 |
LHP Joe Mantiply | 14 | 0 |
LHP Kyle Nelson | 16 | 0 |
RHP Luis Frias | 16 | 0 |
RHP Ryne Nelson | 0 | 0 |
RHP Slade Cecconi | 0 | 0 |
Lovullo said "it's a three-game series and everybody is going to be available tomorrow," though Ginkel never pitched three straight days during the regular season. Thompson did it only once, throwing six pitches on the third day. Sewald threw three straight days twice during the regular season and gave up runs on the third day both times.
Postseason adrenaline is a heck of a thing and it pushes players to perform in ways they wouldn't in the regular season. It is fair to wonder how effective Thompson can be pitching for the third straight day, especially after an extended outing that saw him get six outs and face nine batters in Game 4. I suspect Sewald and Ginkel will be fine pitching for a third straight day, but you never know until they're out there.
Castro and the lefties Mantiply and Kyle Nelson did not pitch in Game 3 and should be ready to go in Game 5. Even if Lovullo wants to stay away from Saalfrank for a third straight day, he'll have two lefties available to face Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper whenever the need arises. Frias, Cecconi, and Ryne Nelson are lower leverage options unlikely to be asked to get important outs.
All things considered, Arizona's bullpen is in a good spot heading into Game 5, as long as Sewald and Ginkel (and Thompson?) show no ill-effects pitching a third day in a row, if called upon. Ginkel did not throw many pitches in Games 3 and 4. Sewald threw a decent amount but has some experience pitching three days in a row this season, so it wouldn't be new to him.
Philadelphia Phillies
| Game 4 pitches | Game 3 pitches | |
|---|---|---|
RHP Craig Kimbrel | 21 | 24 |
LHP José Alvarado | 6 | 15 |
23 | 0 | |
LHP Gregory Soto | 14 | 0 |
RHP Orion Kerkering | 13 | 8 |
LHP Matt Strahm | 19 | 0 |
RHP Jeff Hoffman | 25 | 9 |
RHP Michael Lorenzen | 0 | 0 |
RHP Taijuan Walker | 0 | 0 |
Can the Phillies trust Kimbrel? He faced 11 batters in Games 3 and 4 and got only three outs, allowing four runs in the process. Among those runs was the walk-off single to Ketel Marte in Game 3 and the game-tying two-run homer to Alek Thomas in Game 4. Manager Rob Thomson said they've "got to talk about it" when asked about Kimbrel's role following Friday's loss.
"The last two games sucked. I rolled up in here and cost us two games," Kimbrel told The Athletic following Game 4. "The bright side is we're still tied at 2-2 and we've got a game here tomorrow, then we get to Philly."
Alvarado threw two innings in Game 3, though he needed only three pitches to get through his first inning thanks to a double play and a quick ground out. After Game 4, Thomson admitted he was "trying to not use Alvarado if we absolutely could stay away from him." Alvarado's use on Friday, then, was forced after Kimbrel made a mess of things.
Kimbrel pitched three consecutive days just once during the regular season, and he allowed a solo homer on the third day. Alvarado never pitched three straight days this year, partly because he had two stints on the injured list (77 total days) with elbow inflammation. If the Phillies wanted to avoid using him in Game 4, I reckon they want to avoid using him in Game 5 too.
Games 3 and 4 were the first time Kerkering ever pitched back-to-back days and, given how ineffective he was in the two games (six batters, one out), I can't imagine he'll be in play in Game 5 in anything other than an emergency. Maybe it was fatigue, maybe the moment was too big for him, maybe it was just a bad two days. Either way, Kerkering pitched poorly in Games 3 and 4 and is likely out of the Game 5 mix.
"He's just struggled the last couple of nights, but I still have faith in him too," Thomson said of Kerkering after Game 4. "Tonight maybe he got sped up a little bit. I don't know. You know, he wasn't the only one. I mean, we have to throw strikes. Those guys have great stuff. They have to throw it through the zone."
There is an X-factor in Game 5: Ranger Suárez. Suárez threw 5 1/3 innings and 61 pitches in Game 3 on Thursday and Thomson said he "could be" in play for Game 5 on Saturday. It would not unprecedented. In last year's NLCS against the San Diego Padres, Suárez threw five innings and 68 pitches in Game 3, then came out of the bullpen to get two outs in Game 5 two days later.
"We'll check in with them tomorrow and see how many guys we've got available," Thomson said after Game 4. "We're certainly not going to put people in jeopardy, but this is a tough group, and they want to play."
Domínguez, Soto, and Strahm figure to be asked to get the biggest outs in Game 5, and maybe Hoffman as well. He pitched three straight days once during the regular season, but they were all short outings (three batters faced followed by one batter and one batter). Suárez could be in play as well, though I assume the Phillies don't want to use him unless they have no other choice.
Kimbrel and Kerkering are persona non grata in Game 5 and I will need to see Thomson and the Phillies leave Alvarado on the bench in a close game to believe he really won't make an appearance. I'm sure they would like to stay away and give the big lefty a two-day breather going into Game 6, but if Philadelphia has a small lead in the late innings Saturday, what are they going to do, not use their best reliever?
Thomson's ideal Game 5 scenario is a big early lead, Wheeler cruising through six-plus innings, then one of the two veteran long men (Lorenzen and Walker) taking them home from there. The same goes for the D-backs. Lovullo would love a big lead and length from Gallen, then (Ryne) Nelson and Cecconi mopping things up late. Rarely do things work out according to plan though.
There has not been a complete game in the postseason since 2017 and unless Gallen and Wheeler do it in Game 5, the two compromised bullpens will be a factor. Even if certain guys are available to pitch a third consecutive day, it's fair to wonder how effective they will be. On paper, Arizona's bullpen looks to be in a better place, but both clubs are heading into Game 5 with a relief crew that was pushed to the max in Games 3 and 4.
