Pirates eliminated: 98 wins and out, can they get over the hump in 2016?
The Pirates were eliminated from the postseason in the NL wild-card game Wednesday night. They won 98 games in the regular season but are still looking to get over the hump in the postseason.
By
Mike Axisa
•
3 min read
Despite finishing with the second-best record in baseball at 98-64, the Pirates were quickly eliminated from the postseason, losing to the Cubs in the NL wild-card game Wednesday (CHC 4, PIT 0). Tough finish to an otherwise spectacular year. The Pirates will look to get over the hump in 2016.
What went right: Once again, Andrew McCutchen was a legitimate MVP candidate. It feels like his greatness is going overlooked. He's on the Hall of Fame track. The Francisco Cervelli trade was a smashing success -- Pittsburgh acquire him from the Yankees for reliever Justin Wilson, and Cervelli put up a 113 OPS+ while rating as the game's top pitch-framer. He replaced the departed Russell Martin.
Also a smashing success: Korean infielder Jung Ho Kang, who put up a 123 OPS+ before suffering a season-ending leg injury turning a double play. The Pirates invested only $16 million in Kang -- a $5-million posting fee plus a four-year, $11-million contract. GM Neal Huntington and his staff excel at finding big value at small prices.
Gerrit Cole continued to emerge as an elite starter and both Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett were strong supporting rotation members. (Trade deadline pickup J.A. Happ was a godsend.) Mark Melancon and Tony Watson were a dominant one-two bullpen punch, and others like Neil Walker, Starling Marte and Pedro Alvarez had solid years at the dish.
What went wrong: Josh Harrison, a breakout player in 2014, battled injury and ineffectiveness for much of the season. The rotation behind the top three wasn't great as Jeff Locke, Charlie Morton and Vance Worley all struggled. Burnett missed several weeks with injury, which didn't help matters. Former top prospect Gregory Polanco had a good year but not the kind of breakout year expected given the hype. That's okay. Sometimes it takes time. Other than that, it was a pretty strong year for the Pirates.
Pirates MVP: McCutchen. Easy call.
Pirates LVP: Locke over Morton. Locke was more effective (86 ERA+ vs. 80 ERA+) but he logged a lot more innings (168 1/3 vs. 129), so he did more damage.
Pending free agents: Aramis Ramirez (retiring), A.J. Burnett (retiring), Joakim Soria, J.A. Happ, Antonio Bastardo, Corey Hart, Sean Rodriguez, Joe Blanton
2016 payroll obligations: The Pirates have $50.6 million committed for next season according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, though they do have several significant arbitration cases, including Walker, Cervelli, Alvarez, Melancon, Watson, Locke and Jared Hughes. That $50.6 million is really more like $90 million after arbitration raises.
Biggest offseason decision: What happens with Alvarez? His brand of power is very rare, but Alvarez is basically a DH -- he moved to first base full-time in 2015 and committed 23 (!) errors -- and he'll likely earn north of $10 million through arbitration in 2016. The Pirates have reportedly tried to trade him at various points but found no takers. Could a non-tender be in order?
Huntington & Co. will also have to address the rotation behind Cole and Liriano. Morton has $8 million coming to him next year, so I assume he'll have a spot too. That's two rotation spots to fill with Locke the only notable internal option. (Top prospect Jameson Taillon has not pitched since 2013 due to Tommy John surgery and a hernia.) After figuring out what to do with Alvarez, the Pirates will have to decide how to address their rotation.
2016 will be better if ... The Pirates plug their two rotation holes with even league-average starters. League-average innings eaters would be an upgrade over what the team got from Locke and Morton in 2015. Also, Polanco approaching his potential would be a huge help.
2016 will be worse if ... Huntington fails to find some more low-cost gems like Cervelli and Kang. The Pirates have been the best in the business at finding hidden value, and unless payroll increases significantly, they'll need to do it again this offseason.
Ridiculously premature 2016 prediction: Three years ago the Pirates were a feel-good story after breaking their long postseason drought. They've now been to the playoffs three straight years and are a powerhouse. Huntington will shed Alvarez, add some pitching, unearth another gem every team wishes they had, and will again put a 90-win (or better) roster on the field. Will that be enough to win the NL Central?
