Yankees vs. Rays: Five things to know about three-game series between AL East rivals

The Rays took three of four from the Yankees last weekend

Tuesday night in the Bronx, the rival New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays open a three-game series at Yankee Stadium. As expected, the Yankees and Rays have been two of the best teams in baseball in early going, and they figure to compete for the AL East title right to the end of the regular season.

Here are the updated AL East standings:

1. Yankees: 16-6
2. Rays: 14-9 (2.5 GB)
3. Orioles: 12-10 (4 GB)
4. Blue Jays: 8-11 (6.5 GB)
5. Red Sox: 6-17 (10.5 GB)

Even though the first- and second-place finishers in each division will qualify for the postseason, only the first place team is assured homefield advantage, and that's a pretty big deal even with empty stands. The Rays and especially the Yankees are built for their home ballparks and they want to sleep in their own beds as much as possible in October.

Here are the details for this week's three-game series at Yankee Stadium. Select games can be streamed regionally on fuboTV (try for free).   

Date	Start time	Pitchers	TV
Tues., Aug. 18	7:05 p.m. ET	RHP Masahiro Tanaka (0-0, 2.31) vs. LHP Blake Snell (1-0, 2.08)	YES, Fox Sports Sun, ESPN
Weds., Aug. 19	7:05 p.m. ET	RHP Gerrit Cole (4-0, 2.76) vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow (0-1, 7.04)	YES, Fox Sports Sun
Thurs., Aug. 20	1:05 p.m. ET	LHP James Paxton (1-1, 7.04) vs. TBA	YES, Fox Sports Sun, MLB Network

Trevor Richards (0-0, 5.93) started in place of the injured Charlie Morton last Friday and lines up to start Thursday's game. He may get that start unless he's needed in long relief behind Glasnow on Wednesday. If not Richards on Thursday, then an opener (Ryan Thompson?) with a bulk innings guy like Jalen Beeks or Anthony Banda is a possibility.

"Obviously they are a very good team and we need to beat them to get to where we want to get to," Tanaka told reporters, including George King of the New York Post, earlier this week. "Obviously that goes for every team around us but definitely they have become a good team. It's an important series for us.''

Here are five things to know going into this week's three-game set in the Bronx, plus a prediction thrown in at the end.

These two teams have bad blood

Over the last two years it's become clear the Yankees and Rays don't like each other. The bad blood dates back to Sept. 27, 2018, when CC Sabathia threw at Rays catcher Jesus Sucre in retaliation for Rays righty Andrew Kittredge throwing behind Yankees catcher Austin Romine. Sabathia was suspended five games as a result.

The bad blood carried over into 2019 and, even though Sabathia is now retired, the Yankees and Rays were barking at each other plenty last weekend at Tropicana Field. The benches didn't clear or anything, but the two teams were on each other all weekend. There are no crowds this year. Players can hear everything coming out of the other dugout.

Here's what Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier recently told reporters, including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, about the bad blood between these two teams:

"We have a little bit of history of chirping and certain things that have gone on in between the white lines," Kiermaier said Sunday on a Zoom video call. "I don't think they're the biggest fans of us, and vice versa.

"We all respect each other and what our talents are. But It's one of those things — we love to beat them and they love beating us as well. There's some teams that you just get a little bit of greater satisfaction from, and I think that's very safe to say."

I would bet against a brawl or something like that this week -- we are still in the middle of a global pandemic, after all -- but I would expect lots more trash talk. I love it. Give me all the drama you've got.

The Rays lead the season series

The Yankees and Rays played four games in three days at Tropicana Field last weekend -- their schedules were reconfigured as a result of the Phillies and Marlins shutdowns because the Yankees had to play makeup games against Philadelphia -- and Tampa took three of four. Three of the four games were close:

• Fri., Aug. 7: TB 1, NYY 0 (box score)
• Sat., Aug. 8 (Game 1): NYY 8, TB 4 in 7 innings (box score)
• Sat., Aug. 8 (Game 2): TB 5, NYY 3 in 7 innings (box score)
• Sun., Aug. 9: TB 4, NYY 3 (box score)

The Rays lead the season series and, even with the expanded postseason field, that's not insignificant. Winning the season series means holding the tiebreaker should the two teams finish tied in the standings. In that case the team that won the season series gets the division title (assuming they tie atop the division) and thus homefield advantage in the postseason.

The Yankees and Rays will play three games at Yankee Stadium this week and then another three games at Yankee Stadium from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2. New York needs go at least 5-1 in those six games to win the season series over Tampa. They have to go 4-2 to tie the season series and bump it to the next tiebreaker (intradivision record). Tampa's in good tiebreaker position already.

Yankees have been unbeatable at Yankee Stadium

Quite literally this season. The Yankees are 10-1 at home this year but the one loss was a "home" game played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Yankees are a perfect 10-0 at Yankee Stadium this year and they've outscored their opponents 71-35 in those 10 games. This is tied for the longest unbeaten streak at Yankee Stadium to begin a season in franchise history:

1. 1951: 10-0 (finished 56-22 at home)
2. 1987: 10-0 (finished 51-30 at home)
3. 2020: 10-0
4. 1943: 8-0 (finished 54-23 at home)

The Yankees lost their first three home series last season and are 24-0-3 in 27 home series since. It is the longest unbeaten home series streak in team history. Since Opening Day 2019, the Yankees-Rays rivalry has favored the home team. The home team has done well, including last weekend's series at Tropicana Field. Here are the head-to-head records at each ballpark since last season:

• Tropicana Field: Rays are 8-5 with a plus-1 run differential
• Yankee Stadium: Yankees are 8-2 with a plus-37 run differential

The Yankees have been better against the Rays at Yankee Stadium than the Rays have been against the Yankees at Tropicana Field, but the home team typically has the advantage. That bodes well for the Yankees not only this week, but when these two teams finish their season series. That three-game set will be played in the Bronx as well.

The Yankees are beat up

Within the last 10 days the Yankees have lost their three best hitters to injury. Giancarlo Stanton went down with a hamstring strain issue on Aug. 8, Aaron Judge was sidelined by a calf strain in the middle of last week, and DJ LeMahieu suffered a thumb injury this past Saturday. All three are on the injured list and all three were off to incredible starts:

• Judge: .290/.343/.758 and 1.3 WAR in 17 games
• LeMahieu: .411/.456/.534 and 1.0 WAR in 19 games
• Stanton: .293/.453/.585 and 0.5 WAR in 14 games
  

At the time of their injuries, Judge was leading the league in home runs and slugging percentage, and LeMahieu was leading the league in batting average and on-base percentage. That's an awful lot of production on the injured list. Judge is expected back this coming weekend. LeMahieu and Stanton are both 2-3 weeks away.

Of course, injuries are nothing new for the Yankees. They placed a record 30 different players on the injured list last season and still won 103 games and the AL East. Depth players like Mike Ford (10 RBI in 11 games), Clint Frazier (8 for 18 with five extra-base hits), and Mike Tauchman (.349/.404/.465) have picked up the slack this year, much like 2019. The Yankees are loaded with talent and can better absorb losses than most teams.

That said, take away a team's three best hitters are they're going to feel their absences eventually. The Yankees definitely don't want to play this important three-game series against the Rays without Judge, LeMahieu, and Stanton. They have to though, so New York's depth pieces will have to continue making an impact in full-time roles.

Lowe has been red hot

Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe, the reigning AL Player of the Week, has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball in the early going. He takes a .338/.404/.738 batting line into this series and he currently leads the league in total bases (59), OPS (1.142), and OPS+ (209). Lowe went 13 for 29 (.448) with four homers and 10 RBI last week.

Beyond the surface stats, Lowe leads baseball in another important category: barrels. Barrels are batted balls "whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015." Barrels are the best possible contact, basically.

Here is the 2020 barrels leaderboard:

1. Corey Seager, Dodgers: 12 (16.4 percent of plate appearances)
2. Brandon Lowe, Rays: 12 (13.5 percent of plate appearances)
3. Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres: 12 (11.8 percent of plate appearances)
4. Several tied with 11

Leading the league in total bases and OPS is no accident. Lowe has crushed the ball early this season. He is the most dangerous hitter in Tampa Bay's lineup and that will be especially true these next three games as he takes aim for Yankee Stadium's short right field porch as a left-handed batter.  

Prediction!

Let's close with a prediction. I'm going to say the Yankee Stadium dominance continues and the Yankees win two of three. They'll take the first two games behind Tanaka and Cole (thus setting a new franchise record for consecutive wins at Yankee Stadium to begin a season) before dropping the finale to Tampa's never-ending parade of relievers. I'll go with Gleyber Torres as the hypothetical series MVP. He's been hot lately and is due to hit a few home runs.