Yankees vs. Red Sox: Injuries, pitching uncertainty and what to know about AL East showdown in New York

NEW YORK -- This weekend at Yankee Stadium, the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox and first place New York Yankees will meet for a four-game series. Beyond the historic rivalry, this weekend's series will have quite a bit of impact on the AL East race (and wild-card race) going forward.

As our Katherine Acquavella writes, the Yankees are off to one of the best starts in franchise history despite all their injuries. Here are the AL East standings heading into Thursday night's series opener:

New York Yankees: 36-19
Tampa Bay Rays: 34-19 (1 GB)
Boston Red Sox: 29-27 (7.5 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays: 21-35 (15.5 GB)
Baltimore Orioles: 17-39 (19.5 GB)

Given the standings, this series is much more important to the Red Sox than the Yankees. Boston can gain a lot of ground on New York this weekend and make it a true three-team race in the AL East again. On the other hand, should the Yankees win the series, they'll push the BoSox even further out of the picture. Simply put, the Red Sox have less margin for error going forward.

"It's not critical, but it's another series," Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters, including NBC Sports Boston's John Tomase, on Wednesday. "We go there and we try to win the series, you know? We just have to play better, that's the bottom line."

While speaking to reporters, including Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, Yankees manager Aaron Boone said: "I know what the standings are, but I don't really get (caught looking too far ahead). It's like, alright, we've got J.A. (Happ) going tomorrow. I think (Chris) Sale's pitching. It's like, what can we do to go win a ballgame? And that's about as far as I let myself go, honestly."

Here are the details for this weekend's series (the first three games can be streamed regionally via fuboTV -- try for free):

Date	Start Time	Starting Pitchers	TV
Thurs., May 30	7:05 p.m. ET	LHP Chris Sale (1-6, 4.19 ERA) vs. LHP J.A. Happ (4-3, 5.09 ERA)	YES, NESN, MLBN
Fri., May 31	7:05 p.m. ET	LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (5-3, 5.04 ERA) vs. TBA	WPIX, NESN, MLBN
Sat., June 1	7:15 p.m. ET	RHP Rick Porcello (4-4, 4.41 ERA) vs. TBA	Fox
Sun., June 2	7:05 p.m. ET	LHP David Price (2-2, 2.83 ERA) vs. TBA	ESPN

Clearly, the Yankees have pitching questions to answer these next few days given all those TBAs. We'll get to those in a second though. The Red Sox pushed Sale's start back earlier this week -- he was originally scheduled to start Wednesday and was instead given the extra day -- to make sure he'd face the Yankees this weekend. Boston will have their four best on the mound.

"Obviously, it's a big series for us to help out our lead for first place, and we're going to do whatever we can," Yankees first baseman Luke Voit told reporters, including Anthony Rieber of Newsday, on Wednesday. "It's the best rivalry in baseball, so we're excited. We haven't seen these guys in a while, and it's going to be a lot of fun this weekend."

The Yankees and Red Sox still have another 13 head-to-head games to play after this weekend, and that includes two games in London at the end of June. That doesn't make these games any less important, of course. Head-to-head games are always crucial in a division race. Here's what you need to know going into this weekend's series in New York.

The Yankees swept the first meeting

It was only a two-game series, but it was an eventful two-game series. On April 16 (NYY 8, BOS 0), James Paxton had his "Welcome to New York" game, striking out 12 in eight shutout innings. He held Boston to two hits. The next day Brett Gardner turned a 3-1 deficit into a 5-3 lead with a seventh inning grand slam against Ryan Brasier (NYY 5, BOS 3).

To Boston's credit, they shook off that sweep, then went to Tampa and swept the Rays in three games that weekend. The Red Sox are 23-14 since that two-game sweep in the Bronx. The Yankees have baseball's best record at 28-10 since that series.

New York's rotation is in flux

As the three TBAs in the table above suggest, the Yankees have some rotation uncertainty going into this series. This much we know: Domingo German will start either Friday or Saturday, and the Yankees will use an opener the other day. These are the two scenarios:

Bullpen used heavily Thursday? German starts Friday and the opener is used Saturday.
Bullpen not used heavily Thursday? Opener is used Friday and German starts Saturday.

Basically, if the Yankees can get away with the bullpen game on Friday, that's when they'll do it. They're likely to use Chad Green as the opener with either Nestor Cortes or David Hale following as the bulk innings guy. Green has opened three games this year, all in the last 11 days, and the Yankees won all three games.

As for Sunday, the Yankees are expected to activate CC Sabathia off the injured list that day. He'll have missed the minimum 10 days with knee inflammation. If Sabathia can not go Sunday, the Yankees could start Masahiro Tanaka on regular rest in his place, so that's not too big a headache. Right now the big question is when they can get away with the opener game.

"German will pitch Friday or Saturday, it just depends on what our usage is over the next couple of days,'' Boone told reporters, including George King of the New York Post, on Wednesday. "... We will make that decision whether we want to do that on Friday or Saturday.''

Devers is having a breakout year

He's been around so long now -- this is his third MLB season -- that it can be easy to forget Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers is still only 22. He is 22 years and 218 days old, to be exact. He is a full year younger than teammate and rookie Michael Chavis (23 years and 292 days). He's younger than Brewers rookie Keston Hiura (22 years and 286 days) and Phillies prospect Alec Bohm (22 years and 300 days), the third overall pick in last summer's draft.

Devers already has 234 big-league games and 38 big-league home runs to his credit, and last October he hit .294 during the Red Sox's run to the World Series championship. Most notably, he hit what proved to be the series-winning three-run home run against Justin Verlander in Game 5 of the ALCS. Once upon a time Devers was an elite prospect, and he is currently in the midst of a breakout season this year.

In 25 games this month Devers has authored a .355/.385/.627 batting line with seven home runs and 15 extra-base hits. He's managed to cut his strikeout rate from 24.7 percent last year to an extremely impressive 15.7 percent this year, which is 38th lowest among the 167 batters with enough plate appearances to quality for the batting title. The underlying numbers are as good as it gets:

Exit velocity: 93.2 mph (97th percentile)
Hard-hit rate: 52.6 percent (96th percentile)
Expected batting average: .319 (96th percentile)
Expected slugging percentage: .517 (84th percentile)

Devers is a career .253/.296/.407 hitter with four home runs in 23 games against the Yankees, including .311/.344/.786 with two homers in 16 games at Yankee Stadium. Chances are he'll make a big impact at some point during this weekend.

"He's having a blast. I think everybody saw it in spring training. He's been great and he wants to be great," Cora told reporters, including Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, last weekend. "I know a lot of people are talking about Raffy, too, in that category (of the game's elite). He's stepping up. I can keep talking about Raffy. I'm very proud of him."

New York's fill-in players are still excelling

The Yankees had 12 players on the injured list when these two teams met in April. They'll have 14 players on the injured list when this series opens Thursday night, including their best starter (Luis Severino), their two best outfielders (Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton), their starting (Didi Gregorius) and backup (Troy Tulowitzki) shortstops, their starting third baseman (Miguel Andujar), and their top setup man (Dellin Betances). Crazy.

Given the injuries, it's remarkable the Yankees are where they are right now. They're in first place in the AL East because their replacement players have been so productive. These three position players in particular have really picked up the slack:

PLAYER	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI
Clint Frazier, OF	153	.270/.314/.525	117	10	28
DJ LeMahieu, INF	217	.313/.366/.441	114	5	30
Gio Urshela, 3B	151	.331/.384/.471	126	3	21

LeMahieu was signed to be a super utility player who moved all around the infield to give others rest. He's played in 49 of the club's 55 games, including 16 at third base, a relatively new position. Urshela has been a godsend at the hot corner, both offensively and defensively, and Frazier has provided some of the punch the Yankees lost when Judge and Stanton got hurt.

On the mound, German is in the middle of a breakout season, pitching to a 3.43 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 10 starts (and one relief appearance) in 60 1/3 innings. Last year German was an inventory arm who threw 85 2/3 innings with a 5.57 ERA. He's become indispensable in a hurry. Eventually (probably?) the Yankees will get healthy and become even more dangerous. Right now, the replacements are doing more than keeping the team's head above water. They're helping them thrive.

The two bullpens are trending in opposite directions

Two weeks into the season New York's supposed Super Bullpen looked anything but super. Meanwhile, in Boston, a Red Sox bullpen that was supposed to be a major weakness was pretty darn solid. That was a long time ago though. In recent weeks the performances of the two bullpens have aligned with preseason projections. Here are the numbers the last two weeks:

TEAM	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	WAR
Red Sox	54	4.83	1.59	8.7	5.3	0.0
Yankees	63 1/3	2.56	1.09	9.1	3.3	1.4

The Red Sox have been trying to find a second high-leverage option to pair with Matt Barnes and it isn't going so well. Brasier, last year's bullpen savior, has a 3.97 ERA and he coughed up a three-run ninth inning lead to the Indians on Tuesday. Others like Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree are held back by walk issues. Marcus Walden is the latest to get a look as Barnes' co-relief ace and this weekend will be a big test for him.

"It doesn't feel that (the bullpen is a concern) in the dugout or in the clubhouse. It looks that way probably from the outside," Cora told reporters, including WEEI.com's Ryan Hannable, earlier this week. "The luxury that we have is our starters, they go six innings — six or seven. That is the beauty of our guys when they are going right. We mix and match and we have guys that we trust. There are a few guys that have to step up. Heath Hembree has been amazing in May. Walden, obviously, has been consistent ... I think stuff-wise we're in a good place."

As for the Yankees, their setup crew is three deep with Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, and Zack Britton setting up closer Aroldis Chapman. Kahnle, Ottavino, and Britton have combined for a 1.73 ERA with 89 strikeouts in 72 2/3 innings this year. They've been marvelous. Boone matches Ottavino up against the other team's best hitters regardless of inning -- he figures to see lots of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez this weekend -- and fills in the gaps with Kahnle and Britton. On paper, New York will have a clear advantage in the late innings this series.

The Rays will be interested observers

The Rays will play four games against the home run happy Twins this weekend, so while they'll have their hands full -- Minnesota has best record in baseball at 37-17 -- I have to think Tampa Bay will keep an eye on the scoreboard. How could they not given the AL East race? I assume this is the Rays' preferred order of potential outcomes in New York:

Red Sox sweep. Makes passing the Yankees and taking over first place that much easier.
Yankees sweep. Pushes the Red Sox way down and makes securing the top wild-card spot easier.
Red Sox win three of four. Same idea as point No. 1, but with a little less impact.
Yankees win three of four. Same idea as point No. 2, but with a little less impact.
A four-game split. Doesn't help much. The Yankees and Red Sox kind of stay where they are.

It's early, believe me I know, but the AL East race figures to go right down to the wire regardless of whether it's a two-team race or a three-team race. These head-to-head games affect everyone, even the teams not playing in them. The Rays want to win the division, so they'll root for the Red Sox to beat the Yankees. Either way, as long as Tampa takes care of business against the Twins -- again, not easy! -- they know they'll gain ground on someone.

Series prediction

No matter where they sit in the standings, the Yankees and Red Sox always seem to play each other fairly evenly. Check out the head-to-head numbers since Opening Day 2016:

Yankees: 30 wins and 276 runs scored
Red Sox: 29 wins and 262 runs scored

The Yankees won those two games last month and, going back to last season, they've won six of their last eight regular season games against Boston. What does that mean now? Nothing. I expect one of those typically wild Yankees vs. Red Sox series with four-hour games and pitching changes galore. The prediction here: Two wins for the Yankees and two wins for the Red Sox. An even split. The Red Sox win Thursday and Sunday, the Yankees win Friday and Saturday. And there you have it.