israel-adesanya-usatsi-ufc.jpg
USATSI

Alex Pereira is one of the few men to ever defeat Israel Adesanya in a fight, but the stakes are much higher when the old rivals meet Saturday in the main event of UFC 281 from Madison Square Garden. Adesanya, the middleweight champion, will make the sixth defense of his title against the No. 4-ranked Pereira on the back end of a title-fight doubleheader to close the pay-per-view main card (10 p.m. ET) from New York City. Both combatants were professional kickboxers before transitioning to mixed martial arts. Pereira twice defeated Adesanya, including once by knockout, and has ascended the ranks of the UFC for his first title shot against his longtime foe.

Adesanya is a -230 favorite (risk $230 to win $100), while Pereira comes back at +190 in the latest Caesars Sportsbook MMA odds for UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira. In the co-main event, women's strawweight champion Carla Esparza (+280) defends her belt against former champion Zhang Weili (-360). Before settling any selections of your own for UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira, make sure you check out the MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Kyle Marley.  

Marley won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and daily Fantasy shows. He watches every single fight for every professional MMA card and does extensive research before each event. 

Over the past three-plus years, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up more than $13,000. The accomplished MMA analyst kicked off the 2022 UFC season in January by advising SportsLine members to back Calvin Kattar (+200) against Giga Chikadze (-240) in the featherweight main event. Kattar's lopsided unanimous-decision victory gave Marley's followers another easy winner. Anyone who has followed him is way up. 

Now, with UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira in sight, Marley has studied the card from top to bottom and revealed his best bets. You can only see his MMA picks at SportsLine.

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira preview 

Adesanya and Pereira have navigated similar career paths as both turned to professional MMA later in their careers after establishing themselves in other disciplines, primarily kickboxing. The middleweight champion made his MMA debut in March 2012 and maintained a foothold in both sports for the next five-plus years. 

Coincidentally, the last fight of his kickboxing career came in the knockout loss to Pereira in March 2017. He walked away from the sport with a record of 30-5 upon signing with the UFC and immediately predicted he would become a champion in the MMA world's most famous promotion.

Adesanya (23-1) wasted no time fulfilling his promise. He made his UFC debut in 2018 and won the interim title in April 2019 against Kelvin Gastelum. The 33-year-old, Nigeria-born fighter became the undisputed champion when he knocked out former titleholder Robert Whittaker in October 2019 at UFC 243.  

At that time, Pereira (6-1) wasn't known to UFC observers but he was gaining recognition in lesser-known promotions. In a rare move, the UFC signed him after just four professional fights and fast-tracked him against quality opponents, ostensibly so he could potentially renew his rivalry with Adesanya in a division that was running thin of legitimate contenders.  

The 35-year-old fought a title eliminator against rising contender Sean Strickland at UFC 276 in July and earned the title bid with a first-round knockout. Now, they will renew their rivalry with a UFC title on the line. You can see who to back here.

UFC 281 predictions 

We'll share one of Marley's UFC 281 selections here: He is going with Dustin Poirier (-220) to get his hand raised against Michael Chandler (+180) in a matchup of former lightweight title challengers on the main card.

Both fighters are known for their elite striking, fearlessness and sinister dispositions inside the cage. Many MMA analysts, including Marley, expect this battle to garner Fight of the Night honors.

The second-ranked Poirier (28-7-1) is best known for his pair of knockout victories over Conor McGregor, and the Louisiana native also has a stoppage of Justin Gaethje to his credit. He is looking to get back in the title picture after his last appearance resulted in a stoppage loss to Charles Oliveira for the belt in December of last year.

Chandler (23-7) is the former Bellator champion who has gone 2-2 in four appearances with the UFC. One of those was a loss to Oliveira in a title fight in May of last year. The 36-year-old knocked out former interim champion Tony Ferguson in last appearance. See who else to pick here. 

How to make UFC 281 picks 

Marley also has strong picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira and every other bout on the UFC 281 card. He's also backing a fighter who "will dominate in the striking" to emerge with a huge victory. Marley's picks and predictions are only available at SportsLine.

Who wins Adesanya vs. Pereira? And how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 281, all from the incomparable expert who's up more than $13,000 on MMA in the past three years, and find out. 

UFC 281 odds, fight card

See full UFC 281 picks, best bets, and predictions here.
Israel Adesanya (-230) vs. Alex Pereira (+190)
Zhang Weili (-360) vs. Carla Esparza (+280)
Dustin Poirier (-220) vs. Michael Chandler (+180)
Chris Gutierrez (-240) vs. Frankie Edgar (+200)
Dan Hooker (-155) vs. Claudio Puelles (+130)
Renato Moicano (-125) vs. Brad Riddell (+105)
Dominick Reyes (-220) vs. Ryan Spann (+180)
Erin Blanchfield (-400) vs. Molly McCann (+310)
Andre Petroski (-190) vs. Wellington Turman (+160)
Ottman Azaitar (-165) vs. Matt Frevola (+140)
Silvana Gomez Juarez (-125) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+105)
Sueng Woo Choi (-180) vs. Michael Trizano (+155)
Montel Jackson (-210) vs. Julio Arce (+175)
Carlos Ulberg (-140) vs. Nicolae Negumereanu (+120)