NBA MVP Rankings: Why Cade Cunningham is ahead of Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown in neck-and-neck race for third

Cunningham, Brunson and Brown all have strong cases for the third spot in the rankings behind SGA and Luka

It's not official yet, but Nikola Jokić is almost certainly not going to make the 65-game threshold to qualify for NBA MVP honors. Jokić hadn't missed a single game this season until he hyperextended his knee on Dec. 29, and that injury is expected to keep him out through at least the end of January.

Even if Jokić were to somehow make it back for Denver's final game of the month, he wouldn't be able to miss one more game for the rest of the season to make the 65-game minimum. Not going to happen. And so, moving forward, Jokić will not be a part of the MVP rankings. 

Another MVP candidate, Victor Wembanyama, is already nearing the maximum of 17 games missed, too. For now we'll keep Wemby in the rankings as he's not yet ruled out of games like Jokic is, but it is very unlikely that Wemby makes the 65-game mark. 

With that said, let's get to the rankings. 

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

With Jokic out of the picture, SGA is now the runaway favorite (-450 on FanDuel) to capture his second straight MVP, which would put him some of the most historically elite company possible. Going from one to two MVPs is a big leap. Kobe Bryant never won a second. Neither did Shaq. Kevin Durant only has one. 

All told, only 15 players in NBA history have won multiple MVPs, with 10 of them having won at least their second by the time they turned 27: Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Jokić, Moses Malone, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tim Duncan and Bob Petit. 

If this happens, Gilgeous-Alexander would become the 16th player to win at least two MVPs and the 11th to do so by the age of 27. With two MVPs, he would jump into the class of Curry, Duncan, Antetokounmpo, Petit and Steve Nash -- with a long runway in front of him and a team built to keep him in MVP position for years to come. 

2. Luka Dončić, Lakers

No player is coming to the MVP fight armed with more statistical firepower than Dončić, who is already the only player in history to average at least 33 points, eight assists and eight rebounds for a full season (2023-24, when he got four first-place votes and finished third behind Jokic and SGA), and he's on track to do it again. 

Dončić scored at least 30 points in eight of his 11 December games highlighted by a 45-point, 14-assist, 11-rebound triple-double with five steals and just one turnover in a win over Utah. No player carries more offensive weight than Luka, who leads the league in scoring at usage rate. His 46/32 shooting percentages don't look great, but he gets to the free-throw line a league-leading 12.1 times per game (nobody else is even close to that number) for a true-shooting clip north of 60 and an 88th percentile 123.1 points per 100 shot attempts, per CTG. 

Dončić hasn't been as dominant as he was to begin the season. There have been a lot of volume-shooting nights. But in the end the Lakers are No. 3 in a murderous Western Conference and decline by over seven points per 100 possessions when he sits. 

Moreover, Dončić (with a lot of help from Austin Reaves) has the Lakers at plus-7.5 with what would rank as the best offense in the league when he plays without LeBron, per CTG. These are MVP accomplishments for a team that's as bad defensively as the Lakers are, even though Dončić is maybe the most culpable component of that bad defense. 

Here's the problem: Can Dončić actually overcome SGA if the Lakers don't finish with at least a top-three seed? Probably not. Can the Lakers maintain their top-three status? Maybe, but it feels unlikely. Denver is likely to continue dropping during this period without Jokić and Jonas Valančiūnas, but the Lakers own a neutral point differential suggesting a far worse team than their 22-11 record that is being propped up by their almost certainly unsustainable 12-0 mark in Clutch games. 

Some regression should be expected, and Dončić's MVP case could go the same way. 

3. Cade Cunningham, Pistons

Cunningham, Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown are a dealer's choice in the MVP race right now, but only two are going to make my current top five with Wemby still owning a spot. These three guys are extremely comparable players who are having extremely comparable seasons. 

Cade got the better of Brunson and the Knicks in Detroit's blowout win Monday night, finishing with 29 points in 29 minutes while making 11 out of his 17 shots including 3 of 4 from 3, and he added 13 assists. 

Cunningham is everything to Detroit's offense and a real part of its elite defense, the latter of which, on top of the fact that Detroit is the East's No. 1 team, should give him an edge over Brunson and Brown in these rankings so far. 

Entering play on Monday, Cunningham was second only to Jokić with 727 assist points created, per PBP Stats. Add in the 853 points he has scored himself, and that's 1,580 points that Cade generated in a 32-game sample. Through the same number of games, Brunson generated 101 fewer with 1,449 and Brown came in slightly lower than both at 1,367. 

If you're into nerdy stats, go down most of the catch-all advanced metrics and you'll find Cunningham's name above Brunson's and Brown's -- including in VORP, Win Shares, Box Plus-Minus, EPM, and Inpredictable's full box score win probability added and Clutch WPA. 

If you want a simpler number, the Pistons have outscored teams by by 254 points with Cade on the floor this season. In the same amount of games, the Knicks have outscored teams by 133 with Brunson on the floor, while the Celtics, amazingly, were actually being outscored by 6.2 points per 100 possessions with Brown on the floor entering play on Monday, per CTG. 

I don't like reducing these arguments to numbers. But in a head-to-head this close, how can you not give the edge to Cade with the better team and better impact metrics? 

4. Jaylen Brown, Celtics

Brown finally laid an egg on Monday with 14 points on 24 shots in Boston's win over the Bulls. Cut the guy some slack. He has been off-the-charts incredible this season for a Celtics team that was supposed to be in a "gap" year but has instead jumped the Knicks for the East's No. 2 seed as of this writing. 

Jaylen Brown this season...

Averaging more PPG than: Nikola Jokic, Giannis, Kevin Durant

Better FG% than: Steph Curry, Donovan Mitchell, Karl-Anthony Towns

Better 3P% than: Luka Doncic, LaMelo Ball, Devin Booker

More 40-pt games than: SGA, Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham pic.twitter.com/RQwrJD9WFM

— Underdog (@Underdog) January 5, 2026

OK, so there's no reason to include the 3-point percentage being better than Luka, Booker and LaMelo, as all three of those guys are building houses with their beyond-the-arc bricks. But Brown had raised his 3-PT percentage to 37; he had spent the bulk of the season a little below league average. 

That was the one knock on his campaign thus far, and now that's gone. His midrange mark has declined a bit (for most of the year he was in Kevin Durant's historical company making over 50% on over six shots a game), but his 47.7 mark is still lights out. Only SGA has more 30-point games this year than Brown's 20. He's the league's fourth-leading scorer. 

If you want to say Brunson has been better than Brown, go for it. There's certainly a case to be made. But narrative matters here, like it or not. If we project forward to a scenario in which the Celtics -- who, again, weren't supposed to be a factor this season -- finish above the Knicks with Brown finishing as a top-five scorer, it's hard to imagine Brunson getting more votes. 

5. Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

Wembanyama may have the best chance of unseating SGA if the Spurs were the jump the Thunder for the West's No. 1 seed (which is at least plausible, especially since they own the tiebreaker), but the problem is he's already missed 16 games. Two more, and he becomes ineligible. 

It's probably not realistic for Wemby to play in 44 of San Antonio's final 46 games (if it was, he would be higher on this list). Even if he doesn't miss any injury time (highly unlikely), the Spurs aren't going to grind him down like that with their playoff positioning in good standing, at least as of right now. 

But if it somehow were to happen, let's be clear: Wemby is playing at an MVP level. Even with not having played more than 28 minutes in any of his nine official games (not counting the NBA Cup final against the Knicks) since returning from the calf strain that kept him out for a month, he's averaging 22 points and 10 boards and the Spurs are outscoring teams by 10 points in his 23.2 minutes since coming back. 

All told, Wembanyama is the only player in the league averaging at least 24 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks per game. When he's been on the floor, the Spurs have blitzed opponents by 12.8 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass, with what would rank as the best defense in the league.

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Odd Men Out (for now)

• Jalen Brunson, Knicks: Again, this could easily change within a week. That's how close the race is between Cunningham, Brown and Brunson. As soon as Wemby misses two more games, Brunson goes into the top five, and from there, with SGA and Luka to two leaders, these three are probably in a photo-finish race for the bronze medal. Now, In an "SGA suffers an extended injury" scenario, Brunson would for sure be in the mix to win MVP. 
• Tyrese Maxey, 76ers: Maxey has been every bit as good as Brown and Brunson this season and not too far off of Cunningham. If you have him in your top five, no way I'm criticizing that. Even as I write this I am thinking he should be in mine with the way he carried the Sixers this season before Joel Embiid finally became a factor. 
• Anthony Edwards, Wolves: If 29 PPG on 50/40/80 shooting splits isn't an MVP candidate, I don't know what is. But the Wolves would have to make a huge run in the West for Edwards to creed into the Cade/Luka territory if Detroit and the Lakers stay in the top three of their respective conferences. 
• Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, Rockets: They probably cancel each other out, but they've both played MVP-level basketball all season for one of the best teams in the league.  
• Devin Booker, Suns: He can't hit a 3-pointer to save his life this season, but give this guy some love. Nobody had the Suns being anywhere near this good. Booker is an ultimate competitor and leader and a top-10 scorer. 
• Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers: He's been excellent, but the Cavs have been way too big a bummer for him to have any real chance of getting into the MVP conversation. 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: Swap his name in for Donovan Mitchell, and see above. Plus, he's already missed 12 games. He's a good bet to fall short of the 65 games.