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Two teams trending in opposite directions this season will meet on Tuesday, Dec. 23 when the Denver Nuggets head to the Lone Star State to face the Dallas Mavericks. Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back set, with Denver beating the Utah Jazz on Monday while the Mavericks fell to the New Orleans Pelicans. Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis both played big minutes in Monday's game, so we'll see if they are rested for this contest. On Denver's side, everyone should be in aside from Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun.

The Nuggets have won eight of their last 10 and are an impressive 12-2 on the road this season, anchored by Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Jokic is putting together another MVP-level campaign while Murray's efficiency has him poised to make his first All-Star appearance. The Mavericks have been in a funk after trading Luka Doncic and firing general manager Nico Harrison, which means players like Davis and sharpshooter Klay Thompson could be on the move at the trade deadline. Thompson is listed as doubtfulf or Tuesday's contest, so he's not an option when building a same-game parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday's game. Flagg, however, is available and will be the focal point for Dallas in this matchup.

Nuggets vs. Mavericks NBA same-game parlay picks

  • Cooper Flagg Over 20.5 points
  • Mavericks +6.5
  • Under 237.5

Cooper Flagg Over 20.5 points

Flagg is coming off a relatively solid outing with 16 points, six rebounds and six assists. The SportsLine model has him at 20.4 points, so this is truly a toss-up leg in the same-game parlay. With Thompson out and several other players likely to have their minutes monitored, Flagg should get more looks as the ball flows through him offensively. That should result in more shots and as long as he can maintain his recent efficiency, he'll be able to cross this threshold.

Mavericks +6.5

This is a tough matchup defensively for Dallas, especially if Davis doesn't play due to load management. However, the Mavericks are seventh in defensive rating this season and can make life difficult for Jokic in the paint. Dallas covers the spread in 57% of model simulations. Even though there are some tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back set, the home crowd might be enough for some late Mavericks points to cover here.

Under 237.5

Despite the model leaning to the Over on a consensus line of 235.5, which hits in 50.7% of simulations, I believe the Under offers more value. Even though the Nuggets are first in offensive rating and points per game, the Mavericks do have a solid defense and will be at home. Throw in the back-to-back set and a relatively long injury report for Dallas with Thompson listed as doubtful and the Under is in play.

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