Pacers offseason preview: Why a Myles Turner trade makes far more sense than dealing Victor Oladipo

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Death, taxes, and a competent Indiana Pacers team. They are life's three inevitabilities. The Pacers haven't picked higher than No. 10 since 1989. They've missed the playoffs just six times since then. They won with Paul George, and when he wanted out, they won with Victor Oladipo. When Oladipo got hurt, they won without him, too, and as they enter an offseason as one of the centers of the trade market, we can comfortably say that no matter what they do, they are probably going to wind up winning yet again.

The question of the offseason is how they plan to go about doing that. Oladipo, once hailed as Indiana's prodigal son, is now seemingly dissatisfied and only a year away from free agency. The Myles Turner-Domantas Sabonis experiment seems to be at an end with Turner as the loser. Oh, and the typically frugal Pacers have an owner whose fortune came from developing malls, but they're within range of the luxury tax during a pandemic.

Indiana's offseason is going to be complicated. It is going to involve several competing agendas and more rumors than the rest of the Eastern Conference combined. The Pacers have something for everyone, and by the time the offseason ends, they'll probably have negotiated with just about everyone. Moves are coming. This preview will try to figure out where.

One note before beginning: We will be using Spotrac for player salaries, and 2019-20 cap numbers for this exercise as a whole. That includes previously agreed-upon numbers like the rookie scale and the minimum salary. A frozen cap is the likeliest outcome of negotiations between the league and the NBPA, but these numbers could theoretically change in either direction.

Under the assumption that the 2019-20 numbers will be used, these are the pertinent numbers for these projections.

Salary cap	$109,140,000
Luxury tax	$132,627,000
Luxury tax apron	$138,928,000
Salary floor	$98,226,000
Non-taxpayer mid-level exception (Year 1)	$9,258,000
Taxpayer mid-level exception (Year 1)	$5,718,000
Cap room mid-level exception (Year 1)	$4,767,000
Bi-annual exception	$3,623,000

Cap situation and overall finances

This isn't nearly as notable as it sounds, but it bears mentioning: at present, the 2020-21 Pacers are slated to be the most expensive team in Pacers history by a wide margin. That matters for two reasons. First, this will absolutely not be the most profitable season in Pacers history. Arena-driven revenue is expected to decline by around 40 percent. A 40 percent decline in this current Pacers cap sheet, not factoring in escrow, would take them to around $75 million in salary. The Pacers haven't been there since before the 2016 cap spike.

Second, the other constant in recent Pacers history is thriftiness. They had the league's second-lowest payroll last season, and have been ranked in the bottom-seven six seasons in a row. A lot can still change, but they will almost certainly break that streak this season. They are currently seventh in committed salary. All of this is to make a simple point: money is going to be a far bigger factor in Indiana's offseason than people seem to think.

Players	2020-21 Salary
Victor Oladipo	$21,000,000
Malcolm Brogdon	$20,700,000
Domantas Sabonis	$19,800,000
Myles Turner	$18,000,000
T.J. Warren	$12,000,000
Jeremy Lamb	$10,500,000
Doug McDermott	$7,333,333
T.J. Leaf	$4,326,825
T.J. McConnell*	($1,000,000/3,500,000)
Goga Bitadze	$2,957,520
Aaron Holiday	$2,345,640
Edmond Sumner	$2,160,000
Monta Ellis (dead salary)	$2,245,400
Total	$126.868,718

*Partially guaranteed

The Pacers are only around $6 million short of the tax line as it is. We should assume that they have no intention of crossing it. It's almost irresponsible to suggest that they even plan to use the taxpayer mid-level exception, especially if retaining Justin Holiday and/or JaKarr Sampson is any sort of priority.

If they make a big trade this offseason, expect them to try to use the opportunity to offload some salary. Jeremy Lamb is the primary candidate here just based on his health. Someone recovering from a torn ACL and MCL probably isn't contributing this season, so if shedding is the plan, it probably starts with the guy who won't play. Even if he would, the Pacers owe Aaron Holiday a bigger role anyway. T.J. Leaf is probably second on that list. Doug McDermott makes more, but is a better player. Either are candidates. The non-guaranteed portion of T.J. McConnell's deal is also very much in play.

On the off chance the Pacers do decide to splurge with the mid-level exception, there isn't an obvious target. The Pacers don't have many obvious needs, but they don't have many obvious strengths either. They're solid across the board. Another wing in with Warren's size profile could help if the Pacers want to play smaller. That would be someone like Mo Harkless. It's likelier that a target here would spring out of a bigger trade.

If Turner goes, for instance, the Pacers might look for another big man. Even that wouldn't be a certainty, though, because Bitadze was just the No. 18 pick and would be in line for more minutes. No more Oladipo would almost certainly look to another guard. Aaron Holiday would become the presumptive starting point guard, barring a guard coming back in that deal, but the depth behind him and Brogdon would be somewhat limited.

But without knowing what trades the Pacers will or won't make, pegging exactly who they might pursue just isn't possible. This is a surprisingly expensive roster that really can't afford many indulgences at the moment. Maybe that changes, but the Pacers don't have any young, cheap talent incoming either.

Draft capital

2020 picks: No. 54
Owed future first-round picks: N/A
Incoming future first-round picks: N/A

Welcome to the shortest section in this entire slate of previews. The Pacers have a remarkably simple situation when it comes to their draft capital. Their pick this year belongs to Milwaukee thanks to the Brogdon trade, meaning they're essentially out of the meaningful portion of the 2020 NBA Draft. After that? They're pick-neutral in the first round and free to trade as they like. They have a few future second-rounders incoming, but mostly from contending teams that shouldn't be particularly valuable.

There's always the chance that the Pacers trade into the first round using Turner or Oladipo, but without knowing where or what else they might get back, there's no way of linking them to any prospects beyond their recent love affair with UCLA players. This class is light on Bruins. The No. 54 pick is uncertain in anyone's hands. That pick isn't even guaranteed a roster spot. For now, Indiana's draft, at best, is supplementary to its trade machinations.

Trade options

Here's where things get interesting. Practically every team that doesn't have a starting center should want Myles Turner. His shooting opens up quite a bit offensively, and there's plenty of reason to believe that he's going to improve on another team. Turner, a strong 3-point shooter, has remained at relatively low volume under Nate McMillan. The Pacers took the fewest 3's in basketball last season because of McMillan's style, not personnel. Turner attempted a career-high four 3's per game last season. On another team, that could double. That he's also among the best rim-protectors in basketball is the icing on the cake. The sharks are circling here. Expect a lot of Turner rumors in the coming days and weeks.

Golden State could offer the No. 2 pick, which is probably about right in basketball terms, but the matching salary component is difficult. Andrew Wiggins makes $12 million more than Turner, and the Pacers probably wouldn't be thrilled with the idea of adding his long-term money. There would probably have to be a third team here. Golden State's hangup would probably be stylistic. Turner is a dropback big. Draymond Green is best in a switching defense.
Boston has been linked to Turner for years. The old Jaylen Brown rumors are probably outdated. Brown is simply too good to trade for Turner now. But Indiana-native Gordon Hayward's name continues to pop up here. If the Celtics are willing to include some of their draft capital (they hold the Nos. 14, 26 and 30 picks), there could be something here. Matching salary is an issue in this deal as well, though. Hayward makes almost twice as much as Turner. Lamb and McDermott could offset that, but that opens up two roster slots that need to be filled.
New Orleans looks ready to trade Jrue Holiday. The Pacers already have Aaron and could retain Justin (perhaps at a discount if Jrue comes aboard). Uniting the Holiday brothers is a fun idea, but a valid one too. Imagine the point-of-attack defense Jrue, Oladipo and Brogdon could provide. That's three high-level ball-handlers for the offense. The Pelicans, meanwhile, get the 3-and-D center of their dreams to pair with Zion Williamson. Lamb would need to go to New Orleans to make the dollars work, but this is the easiest deal to construct here. The Pelicans get younger. The Pacers get better. Both get strong fits.
The Nets aren't going to invest in a center. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are too committed to DeAndre Jordan. But if they were, Turner would make sense on a number of levels, and a Caris Levert swap would be worth a discussion.
All indications point to the Wizards drafting a center at No. 9. If they want to make a win-now push for Bradley Beal's sake, why not offer the pick to Indiana for Turner? The Pacers get the savings they're looking for and start to pad their future a bit.
If the Pacers are really committed to shooting more, a Buddy Hield-for-Turner swap makes sense. It would kill the Pacers defensively but make an enormous difference on offense. The catch here is that Brogdon would probably have to defend forwards. Can he do that?
It looks like the Rockets are sticking to small-ball, but if they're wavering, Indiana should ask about Robert Covington. Turner is the perfect compromise center for the Rockets given his shooting.
The Timberwolves probably wouldn't do this, but the No. 1 pick for Turner makes them a better team. Their issues aren't on offense. They're on defense. Turner goes a long way in fixing them, and if Karl-Anthony Towns is going to be bad on defense regardless, he's probably less damaging at power forward than center.

There will be more offers on the board here. The Clippers will ask. The Raptors might ask if they lose Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. The Lakers could even ask depending on what else they do this offseason. Basically, any team that doesn't already have a better center than Turner should consider making an offer for him. He's more valuable than Indiana has made him look.

Victor Oladipo is the opposite. He's less valuable right now than the Pacers probably hoped. That makes sense. Between his health and all of the noise surrounding his free agency, there's no good reason to make a major asset investment in him. There are some moves the Pacers could consider here, but they just aren't worth making unless the Pacers either believe they have no chance at retaining Oladipo, or have no desire to do so.

Brooklyn isn't giving up LeVert for Oladipo in his present state. Spencer Dinwiddie and Jarrett Allen probably aren't enough given Oladipo's upside. Maybe there's a middle ground here, but the Nets will probably look elsewhere for their offseason blockbuster.
The Lakers would probably be interested just given their limited pathways to a third star, but how desirable is their package? Danny Green's expiring contract is the matching salary. He's still a valuable player. Kyle Kuzma would presumably be the asset bait. How interested would the Pacers be in him with T.J. Warren already on the roster? Maybe there's a way for this to work, but the Lakers probably don't have enough unless the Pacers really like Alex Caruso.
The Magic are probably trending towards a tank, but if they're looking for a long-term ball-handler, maybe they'd be interested in swapping Aaron Gordon for Oladipo back. It would probably have to come with an extension, but it wouldn't be impossible.
Philadelphia could build an offer around Josh Richardson. That isn't enough, but Richardson is so cheap ($21.4 million total over the next two seasons, if he opts into his final season) that ownership might be into this.
As always, we need to mention the Knicks with any veteran star. They can absorb his salary outright, but other than the No. 8 pick, what do they have that Indiana might want?
Denver would be interested for the same reasons they're interested in Jrue Holiday. The same issues apply here, though. Gary Harris is nice, but doesn't do much for the Pacers, and the Nuggets probably wouldn't make this deal without an extension.
You'll hear from the teams with the top two picks at some point. Oladipo would be a nice fit in Minnesota and a decent enough one in Golden State. Given the risks, neither are going to invest that much in Oladipo.
Miami should be mentioned here, just given all of the rumors, but the Heat are unlikely on several levels. For starters, the players that the Pacers would probably want might be better than Oladipo right now. Duncan Robinson has a lower ceiling, for instance, but is far safer given his health. He's also far cheaper. The Heat don't have much reason to commit to Oladipo now when they can just pursue him as a backup option in 2021 free agency if they miss out on bigger fish. They have no real reason to pursue two stars now either. Tyler Herro is a far better long-term bet than Oladipo at this point. They aren't giving him up in a sign-and-trade for such a big risk.

These are the kinds of offers you get for a player two years removed from stardom. Oladipo may never get back there. If he does? The Pacers would regret this kind of trade forever. If someone blows them away, then by all means, cash out on Oladipo before free agency. In the more realistic scenario in which that doesn't happen? The most value the Pacers could probably get for Oladipo is another year of his services on the court.

What would an ideal offseason look like?

A Turner trade feels close to inevitable at this point. Holiday is the best win-now option available. Without a feasible rebuilding path in front of them, that's the deal worth pushing for. Let's say the Pacers send Turner and Lamb to New Orleans for Holiday. Maybe there would need to be a pick in here depending on what other offers the Pelicans get, but broadly, this is an acceptable package.

That'll save them around $2.7 million against the tax line. In conjunction with this trade, we'll have the Pacers waiving McConnell as well. Between Oladipo, Brogdon and the Holiday siblings, there aren't minutes for him. That's another $2.5 million in savings. The Pacers should look for some extra savings elsewhere. Here's a simple option: attach some of those extra second-round picks to move Leaf into somebody's cap space or a trade exception. The Thunder have multiple exceptions big enough to absorb Leaf and should have plenty of room below the tax line when it's all said and done. That's just one option. Say he's offloaded. That's another $4.3 million in savings. All told, we now have nine players at around $117.7 million, essentially $15 million below the tax line.

First thing's first: Justin Holiday needs to be retained. Let's set his salary for next season at around $5.7 million. That is both his cap hold and the taxpayer mid-level exception, essentially meaning the Pacers can retain him for the price most teams would be able to pay to steal him. We'll dip into the mid-level exception a bit to retain JaKarr Sampson at $3 million, but otherwise, that exception won't be used this offseason. The rest of it will be saved for a possible buyout addition during the season if the right opportunity presents itself. Now we have four roster spots left at the minimum. The Pacers can afford to go best players available here. Maybe they re-sign some of their own free agents. Maybe they look outside of the organization. We should assume at least one rookie minimum (likely the No. 54 pick), but otherwise, staying below the tax wouldn't be too hard.

That leaves the Oladipo decision. If some team blows the Pacers away, sure, it's worth listening. That just isn't going to happen, and assuming it doesn't, there's no real reason to trade Oladipo because nothing they'd get for him would replace his production.

The best version of the Pacers is the one with a healthy and productive Oladipo next season. That Indiana team could genuinely contend in the Eastern Conference. Any Oladipo trade, therefore, needs to accomplish one of two things: make the Pacers a better, more stable team in 2021, or make the Pacers a better, more stable team beyond that. Neither goal seems attainable at Oladipo's current trade value. It makes more sense just to ride this thing out. If he walks, he walks, and a lackluster possible trade package shouldn't make them feel worse about that. If that package isn't enough to replicate the possible contention Oladipo's presence allows for right now, then it isn't worth doing.

A Pacers team featuring Oladipo, Brogdon, Sabonis, Warren and the Holiday brothers would be, on paper, strange. It would also among the more talented and balanced teams in basketball. The Pacers can't beat Brooklyn or Los Angeles playing the superstar game of thrones. They have to win through those more egalitarian means. This wouldn't be a flashy team, but like so many others in Pacers history, it would be a damn good one.