The Celtics are going to struggle against the Bucks, other best bets for Wednesday

The Celtics are 1-7 ATS against the top five teams in the NBA this season

By Tom Fornelli

Mar 24, 2021 at 3:59 pm ET • 6 min read

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Hello and Happy Wednesday, everybody. I hope the day finds you well, and if you tailed the three picks in last night's newsletter, you're probably just as upset with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and the Lakers as I am. Actually, if I'm upset with anybody, it's Frank Vogel.

I know it was a blowout, but we couldn't give KCP more than eight second-half minutes last night, Frank? We couldn't just put him out there to let him hit another three so we could have a perfect night? Why are you so selfish?

For real, though, last night was a good lesson in how player props can go awry. It was a perfect scenario for the prop, but then the Lakers got blown out early, and it changed the rotation considerably. It happens, we move on, and it's hard to be too angry considering how easily the Knicks and Suns covered for us. Hopefully, tonight will be just as sweat-free as those two picks were, but before we get to them, let's exercise our brains.

Back to our degeneracy.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Celtics at Bucks, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Bucks -6 (-110): As we head into tonight's NBA slate, I want you to be aware that the trade deadline is looming. As a result, we could see some last-minute changes to lineups we aren't expecting. So, as a rule for this evening, I would suggest not placing any of these bets until we have the clearest picture possible, so while I'm getting the Bucks -6 here, this line has been moving today. I'm good with it up to Bucks -7, but as always, trust your instincts on this.

As for the game itself, if you've been a loyal reader, you know I'm not shy about fading the Celtics in matchups like this. Boston has struggled against the elite NBA teams this season, and Milwaukee fits that criteria. The Bucks are one of five NBA teams that have won two-thirds of their games this season (the other four are Philly, Brooklyn, Utah and Phoenix). The Celtics have played eight games against those five teams, and they're 1-7 ATS in those contests. Now, the lone cover came against Milwaukee, but it was in the season-opener.

Milwaukee is already one of the best all-around teams in the NBA, and the addition of P.J. Tucker should improve them even more. I love them in this spot tonight against a Boston team that is forever overrated by the market.

Key Trend: The Celtics are 1-7 ATS against the top five teams in the NBA this season.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Advanced Computer Model loves this game tonight, as it has a couple of strong plays on the total and money line, and then there's the A-graded play on the spread.

💰 The Picks

🏀 NBA

Cavaliers at Bulls, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass
The Pick: Cavaliers +6 (-110) -- There's some hidden value on the Cavs in this matchup tonight. We've seen the Bulls show a tendency to beat up on bad teams and struggle against playoff teams, particularly since the break. In their last eight games, the Bulls have beaten Toronto, Oklahoma City and Detroit by an average of 19.3 points per game. They've lost to Philly, Miami, San Antonio, Denver and Utah by an average of 13 points per game. Now, Cleveland falls into the bad team category, but what I'm trying to take advantage of is how many games the Bulls have played.

Tonight will be the team's sixth game in 10 days, and another common theme of Bulls games lately has been the team fading in the second half. I can foresee another situation tonight where the Bulls build a lead early, but Cleveland battles back in the second half. Plus, Collin Sexton and Darius Garland could provide some problems for the Bulls on the defensive end. Cleveland is a live dog tonight.

Key Trend: The Bulls are 10-14 ATS at home this season.

Hawks at Kings, 10 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass
The Pick: Over 231 (-110) -- When the Hawks decided to fire Lloyd Pierce and name Nate McMillan interim coach, some questioned the move. Well, it's hard to question the early results! Atlanta won its first eight games under McMillan before losing to the Clippers on Monday. A big reason for the turnaround has been an improvement on the defensive end, but we saw that slip a bit on Monday, and with the Hawks playing their third game in California in five days, I wouldn't be shocked if we see it again tonight.

Plus, we know the Kings defense will be more than accommodating. Sacramento ranks last in the league in defensive efficiency, and I think tonight's game will feature a lot of up-and-down with little defensive resistance. And, frankly, that's just fine with me. I'm here for watching De'Aaron Fox and Trae Young cook for a couple of hours.

Key Trend: The over is 15-6 in Sacramento home games this season.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Advanced Computer Model is strapping on its skates and making a play on the total in tonight's NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Buffalo Sabres.

💸 The DFS Rundown

Building Blocks

PG: Luka Doncic, Mavs
SG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
SF: Gordon Hayward, Hornets
PF: Domantas Sabonis, Pacers
C: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

Value Plays

PG: Darius Garland, Cavs
SG: Devonte Graham, Hornets
SF: Justin Holiday, Pacers
PF: Maxi Kleber, Mavs
C: Ivica Zubac, Clippers

Full lineup advice

Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.

🏀 Final Four Futures

The NCAA Tournament doesn't resume until Saturday, so each day until then I'm going to include one futures bet on the winner of each regional. Today we look for the best value to win the West

The Pick: USC and Oregon to win the West Region (+800) -- Gonzaga is the favorite for all the obvious reasons and will be difficult for anybody remaining in the West to get past, but the whole world is on Gonzaga. That's leading to a lot of value on USC and Oregon, and I'm taking both. The winner of their game is either facing a Creighton team that just pulled off a major upset or facing a Gonzaga team it can compete with. Listen, everybody is talking about how crazy this tournament has been, but the truth is the committee just did a terrible job seeding teams.

USC is the No. 6 seed in the West, yet it's rated No. 6 in the country by KenPom. Oregon is 17th. These are two top 20 teams in the country, and USC has the kind of size and talent up front that could pose serious problems for Gonzaga. The value here is fantastic.