2023 NFL Draft: Why Texans and Cardinals trades sound easy but might not happen
History says Houston and Arizona will find it difficult to trade out of the top five in the 2023 NFL Draft
By
Will Brinson
•
5 min read
Everyone is blindly assuming the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals -- picking No. 2 and No. 3 in Thursday's 2023 NFL Draft, respectively -- will jump out of those spots if they're not interested in the prospects available.
For Houston, Bryce Young is likely going to Carolina, rendering their second pick less exciting while simultaneously making them much angrier in Lovie Smith's direction. Arizona just wants to hit the fast forward button on 2023 (and haven't we all been there).
You will see a lot of mock drafts in the next 24-36 hours featuring these teams trading out of these spots, but I am here to tell you it's a lot less likely to happen than you think!
Why? Great question!
History tells us ...
This doesn't happen much. If you're one of the billions who checked out my QB Draft Desperation Tier story (and I thank you for reading, of course) you know how adept I am at creating bar graphs. Or maybe you just subscribe to my NFL Bar Graph Substack. Either way you're in luck because this is another freebie for you, a bar graph of ON-THE-CLOCK trades of top-five picks in the last 10 years.
Warning ... it is not that enticing:
For those counting at thome, that would be TWO OF THEM in the top five since 2013.
About those trades...
Just to confirm that I'm not insane -- because I'm a little worried after being told we'll see two top-five trades on the clock this year after seeing two total the last 10 years -- let's run through all the trades year by year in the top five.
It won't take as long as it sounds.
2013: Everyone, teams included, hated this draft. No one could move. Only Miami jumped up to No. 3 while on the clock to grab Oregon pass rusher Dion Jordan in a swap with Oakland. That was a terrible pick but it's made much worse by Lane Johnson (current starting All-Pro superstar right tackle) still playing.
2014: Two trades up top, but one (the Rams getting No. 2 overall and drafting Greg Robinson) came about from the Robert Griffin III trade. The other was the Bills moving up to grab Sammy Watkins fourth overall while Cleveland was on the clock. This is where it gets REALLY depressing: the Rams actually ended up getting Aaron Donald with their second pick, Sammy was the fourth (?) best wide receiver in the first round and the Browns landed Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel. Buzz, your girlfriend, woof.
2015: No trades in the top five on the clock!
2016: Two trades here, but both came before the draft, with the Rams and Eagles moving up to No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, to grab Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, respectively. Both were great picks then they weren't. Wild stuff.
2017: Two more trades in the top five, but also all before the draft. The Bears and 49ers swapped No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, so Chicago could draft Mitchell Trubisky. Don't look up who else went after him at the same position unless you've already survived several decades of deep-dish pizza. The Rams traded the Titans their No. 5 overall pick as part of the previous Goff deal. No one left satisfied.
2018: Two more trades in the top-five overall, but also both before the draft! The Jets and Colts swapped out so the Jets could take Sam Darnold, who, like many Jets QBs before and after him, dealt with offensive line woes that could have been solved by adding Quenton Nelson. The Browns used Houston's pick from the year before ... which was used to grab Deshaun Watson, which sounds really weird now that I think about it.
2019: A glorious time to be alive and definitely not a time for riding scooters in downtown Nashville, kids. Oh yeah ... and no top-five trades.
2020: Blame the pandemic, but no top-five trades.
2021: The 49ers gave up roughly 33 future first-round picks not to draft Mac Jones but they did it before the draft.
2022: Too late to blame the pandemic and also no top-five trades.
Good news ...
I'm not crazy!
Bad news ...
There's not likely to be a ton of top-five picks traded in this draft while teams are on the clock, despite everyone assuming that will happen.
Why Is that?
Two obvious answers here: time and cost. There's a limited amount of time to make draft picks and people don't like to mess around and just assume they can sling these picks. The Cardinals, again, are telling people they have six offers for No. 3. But it's all dependent on what's available. Maybe someone LOVES Will Levis or C.J. Stroud and moves up for one of them at No. 3. I would counter by noting the Chiefs waited until No. 10 overall to move up for Patrick Mahomes.
And the Chiefs gave up a lot to make that move, including a future first-round pick. The Bills did the same for Josh Allen. The Texans did the same (see: above) for Deshaun Watson. These moves are made with conviction for quarterbacks. But they rarely land in the top five.
Which brings us to cost. Look at any trade chart valuation involving the NFL and you will notice there's a clear and very steep drop-off in terms of value of the picks. Even the more reasonable Rich Hill Trade Chart still has DFS/poker tournament-style "payouts" -- it's so top-heavy in terms of what is valued. And that makes sense: there aren't 30+ elite players in every NFL draft.
There definitely aren't this year, even when you factor in how much people like the quarterbacks. It's very unlikely we see a bunch of teams scrambling up to get picks in the top five out of nowhere.
Maybe they do -- this is a wild NFL Draft. But it would be pretty shocking if we saw a ton of trades early on unless they happen before the draft.
And the clock is ticking with very little movement for either Houston or Arizona.
