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It wasn't supposed to be like this for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Over the first six weeks of the season, the Buccaneers were at the top of the NFC South and quarterback Baker Mayfield was in MVP discussions as he kept the Bucs offense afloat while All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs, running back Bucky Irving and wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin all missed time with injury. They were eighth in points per drive, seventh in EPA per play and sitting at 5-1 with a win over the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle.

However, since Week 7, the Bucs have fallen off a cliff, and now find themselves needing a win on Saturday against the Panthers and some help if they want to win the division for the fifth straight year. Over this same time span, the Bucs are 26th in EPA per play on offense, 25th in points per drive and have lost eight of their last 10 games, including a "Thursday Night Football" loss to the Atlanta Falcons that made Todd Bowles give an expletive-laden statement about the team postgame, and recently a baffling loss to the moribund Miami Dolphins.  

So how did this team go from early Super Bowl contenders to potentially out of the playoffs completely? It comes down to a bad mixture of problems on offense.

On the offensive side of the ball, it's easy to point to the various injuries as why the Bucs offense has fallen apart, and you would be correct to an extent. Mayfield is playing through a shoulder injury, Wirfs has been in and out of the lineup, Evans was on IR from weeks 8-15 and Irving is just now getting close to 100% after shoulder and foot injuries during the season. However, I think all of the injuries have papered over a larger issue with the offense lately: it feels like there's no trust between anyone on that side of the ball. The offensive coordinator doesn't trust his offensive line or QB, the QB doesn't trust the line or his playcaller, receivers aren't running the right routes. It's all been bad for Tampa Bay and that lack of trust has been evident on tape. 

Let's start with the QB and passing game. Yes, Mayfield has been hurt, but it doesn't help that he's playing entirely too wound up. Mayfield is playing amped up because of the idea of pressure and getting hit, and it's causing mistakes. Take one of his interceptions he threw against Miami, for example. The Dolphins are running a non-traditional Tampa 2 coverage, and the Bucs have the perfect play to beat it, with wide receiver Jalen McMillan coming over the top on a big post. Mayfield throws a pick despite making the correct decision to throw because he bails on a clean pocket and throws off the timing. Because this pass is late, it allows cornerback Jason Marshall Jr to make a play on the ball.

On this play, Mayfield ends up scrambling for a first down, but the throw is there for Evans as the over the ball route on mesh. Mayfield sees it, but opts for a scramble instead. While it's a good result, it's a bad process and makes you worry about the 2025 version of this Bucs offense.

Mayfield's accuracy has also taken a stark dip post-Week 7, hampering the passing game even more. From weeks 1-7, Mayfield's on-target rate was 73.7%, not a super high number but still one that would qualify for a starting QB in the NFL. Since then, that number has dropped to 69.3%, which is incredibly concerning and also shows up on the tape. 

Where completion percentage is sort of overused when it comes to QB stats, on-target rate measures how often the pass hits the receiver in stride, regardless of whether the pass is broken up or not. While Mayfield has also not been incredibly accurate, the entire offense has also entered the tank. On top of some odd timing and design on play calls by offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, the receiver corps has also just been bad. 

This is the exact same play that Mayfield missed Evans on, a mesh concept where Evans is the over the ball route. However, the linebacker causes a collision with Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka also collides with the linebacker. So you end up with three receivers in one area, stacked on top of each other like LEGOs. Not exactly how you draw it up.

Tampa's offensive woes this season go beyond just not being healthy. Yes, Mayfield has dealt with a litany of injuries, but he also can't continue to play this way for the offense to be at its best. Mayfield is reckless, that's part of what makes him such fun to watch. However, he chooses too often to put his body on the line and sacrifices potential big gains through the air to put his already injured body through a whole lot more pain. Admirable, but also far too reckless for a Bucs team that has more than just playoff aspirations.

The biggest thing Grizzard can do for Mayfield is telling him to chill out, honestly. Giving him more easy looks in the passing game that accentuate his strengths as a passer (strong arm to throw outside the hashes, growing as a passer in the middle of the field) and allowing for the offensive skill-position players to help him out now that they're healthy and in the lineup together. 

Part of that is leaning on the run game, and that comes with its own set of problems. Without most of the aces on the offensive line in the lineup, Tampa can't push around teams like it did last season, but the intentionality in design behind the run game has been lacking this season. With former OC Liam Coen out the door, the run game hasn't popped as much, forcing the offense into some rough situations. Grizzard could use Irving and Sean Tucker in space more often, where their vision might be better this season.

Time is running out for the Bucs to find an answer, with their season on the line against the Panthers on Saturday. If Tampa Bay winds up on the outside looking in come playoff time, its offense will be asking what could've been.