Bengals vs. Jaguars player props, odds, Thursday Night Football picks: Joe Burrow over 246.5 passing yards

SportsLine reveals the top NFL prop picks and NFL best bets for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 30, 2021 at 10:20 am ET • 3 min read

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Without much time to prepare and playing on short rest, Thursday Night Football often leads to mixed results. The Panthers had to grind out a 24-9 win over the Texans in Week 3, while Washington won a 30-29 thriller over the Giants in Week 2. D.J. Moore, Brandin Cooks and Terry McLaurin have all had 100-yard receiving games on Thursday Night Football, but does that mean you should target NFL props on wide receivers when the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4? Which NFL player props could yield strong returns?

Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase has 11 catches for 220 yards and four touchdowns in his first three games, but how should you approach the rookie with your NFL player props? Marvin Jones leads the Jaguars with 17 catches for 194 yards and two scores, and the latest NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook list his over-under for receiving yards at 67.5. Before submitting any NFL prop bets for Jaguars vs. Bengals, you need to see the Bengals vs. Jaguars prop predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 4 of the 2021 season on an incredible 123-81 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

It can also be used to crush prop picks. Last season, the player over-under prop picks went 389-310, returning over $3,000.

With Bengals vs. Jaguars on Thursday Night Football, the model has evaluated the NFL player props from Caesars and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.

Top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars vs. Bengals

After simulating Bengals vs. Jaguars 10,000 times, the model predicts that Burrow will easily surpass 246.5 passing yards and finish with 264. Burrow looked like a serious NFL Rookie of the Year contender before tearing his ACL in Week 11 last season, but he made his return to start the 2021 season and erased any doubts about his surgically-repaired left knee in a strong Week 1 win over the Vikings.

After throwing three interceptions in a row to sink the Bengals' chances of staying unbeaten against the Bears in Week 2, Burrow came back to throw for three touchdowns in a win over the Steelers last week. Burrow has only exceeded 246.5 passing yards once this season, but he bested that total six times in 10 starts as a rookie. Plus, the Jaguars' defense is allowing 302.3 passing yards per game through three weeks.

SportsLine's NFL model also has Jaguars running back James Robinson going over his total rushing yards of 49.5. The model sees Robinson gaining 59 yards on the ground and averaging a respectable 4.6 per carry. After Travis Etienne Jr. underwent season-ending foot surgery during the preseason, Robinson was able to reprise his role as the No. 1 back in Jacksonville and he's been very productive on a per touch basis despite the Jags trailing often and getting away from the run.

Robinson has carried the ball 31 times for 160 yards and added 12 receptions for 92 yards so far this season. At 5.2 yards per carry, Robinson only needs 10 carries for the over to hit and he's had at least 11 carries in his last two games. Look for Robinson to be involved a lot early as the Jaguars look to take pressure off rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence and for Robinson to comfortably go over 49.5 yards.