Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction: Can Dak Prescott pick apart Washington's defense once again?
Dallas and Washington kick off the NFL's Christmas Day action playing for pride
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3 min read
FRISCO, Texas -- Both the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) and the Washington Commanders (4-11) are playing out the string the last two weeks of the 2025 season. The two NFC East rivals are both eliminated from postseason contention, so Weeks 17 and 18 are all about continuing to increase culture and build momentum toward a potentially brighter future in 2026.
"I think it's all about the culture that is all about winning. It can be crazy to say that, I get it. We've lost three games in a row. We've got two more opportunities left," Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer said on Monday. "I want to keep seeing these guys play with the physicality that they played with yesterday [Sunday in a Week 16 loss against the Los Angeles Chargers] and the passion and the love for one another. I think that's important. But at the end of the day, we got to find ways to win games. ... We're building something here, and I think it's going to be really special. We're a long ways away, but I do think that these next two games can help build a lot of momentum for the future."
Where to watch Cowboys vs. Commanders
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 25 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Maryland)
- Stream: Netflix
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Cowboys -7, O/U 50.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cowboys vs. Commanders: Need to know
Will Dak Prescott continue dominance over Washington?
Dak Prescott is third in the NFL in passing touchdowns (28) and second in the league in passing yards (4,175) while leading the NFL's No. 5 scoring offense (28.3 points per game). That's bad news for a Washington Commanders defense that is allowing 26.9 points per game this season, the sixth-most in the entire league. Prescott went up against Commanders head coach and defensive play caller Dan Quinn's defense every day in practice for three years when the latter was the Cowboys' defensive coordinator from 2021 to 2023. That provides the freshly minted, four-time Pro Bowl quarterback plenty of intel to carve up the Commanders defense once again in 2025.
In Dallas' 44-22 Week 7 win over Washington, Prescott threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes, 21 of 30. Among active players, only Aaron Rodgers (seven four-touchdown pass games vs. the Chicago Bears and six four-touchdown pass games vs. the Minnesota Vikings) has more four-touchdown pass games against a single opponent than Prescott's four such games against Washington.
| Dak Prescott career vs. Washington | Stats |
|---|---|
W-L | 12-2 |
Comp Pct | 67% |
Pass YPG | 243.5 |
TD-INT | 30-5 |
Passer Rating | 108.2 |
Josh Johnson likely to make first start of 2025
Commanders No. 3 quarterback Josh Johnson came off the bench after Marcus Mariota (right hand/quad) went down because of injury against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, and he looked like a 39-year-old, third-string passer, throwing for 43 yards and an interception on 5 of 9 passing. It's looking like he'll be the fourth-oldest quarterback to start a game this season behind Philip Rivers (44), Aaron Rodgers (42) and Joe Flacco (40) with Mariota not practicing on either Monday or Tuesday this week. No one has been on an active roster for as many teams as Johnson, 13, in the 21st century.
Dallas seeking to avoid uncomfortable defensive history
The Cowboys defense is allowing 30.3 points per game this season in the first year of Matt Eberflus as the team's defensive coordinator. That figure stands as the second-most in the NFL this season and the second-most in team history. Only the 1960 Cowboys, the franchise's inaugural team, was worse, allowing 30.8 points per game. Dallas' 2025 squad is also looking to avoid joining the 2016 New Orleans Saints, who went 7-9 and missed the playoffs, as the only teams in the last 40 seasons to lead the NFL in passing offense (274.3 passing yards per game) but rank dead last in pass defense (257.8 passing yards per game allowed).
The good news for the Cowboys is Pro Bowl defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (neck) is trending toward returning to action in Week 17 after missing Week 16 because his neck flared up in practice at the tail end of the week last week.
"I feel very good. I'm just working, progressing, doing the things I need to do to be as healthy as I can be," Williams said on Tuesday. "Just doing everything I can to get cleared to be able to go out there and dominate and play alongside with the team."
Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction, pick
Prescott powers Dallas to a sweep of the Commanders by picking apart Quinn's defense with big plays to both Pro Bowl wide receiver George Pickens and All-Pro wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Lamb had a 74-yard receiving touchdown against Washington in Week 7, the second-longest catch of his career, and he, Pickens and Prescott will create some Christmas Day fireworks in the nation's capitol on Thursday.
Pick: Cowboys 38, Commanders 13 | (Dallas -7, Over 50.5)
