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Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott are not in action this week, but there is no shortage of star power at that position during the Week 10 NFL schedule. Bills signal-caller Josh Allen will face the Dolphins at 1 p.m. ET to wrap up the season series. Buffalo recorded a 31-21 win on Sept. 18 in the first matchup, as Allen had 213 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. His over/under for passing touchdowns at DraftKings Sportsbook on Sunday is 1.5, and SportsLine's proven computer model is backing the Over with its Week 10 NFL quarterback props.  

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 10 on a sizzling 47-29 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three Sunday NFL QB prop picks for NFL Week 10 at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

  • Josh Allen, Bills, Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-187)
  • Matthew Stafford, Rams, Under 261.5 passing yards (-111)
  • Justin Herbert, Chargers, Over 0.5 interceptions (+101)

Josh Allen, Bills, Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-187, DraftKings)

Allen has only thrown one passing touchdown in each of his last two games, causing this total to fall to 1.5 ahead of this week's game against Miami. The 29-year-old had at least two passing touchdowns in five of his first six games, though, including the first matchup with Miami when he threw for three scores on Sept. 18. The Dolphins gave up four touchdown passes to Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson last week, and the model has Allen finishing with 2.19 touchdown passes in its simulations for this game. 

Matthew Stafford, Lions, Under 261.5 passing yards (-111, DraftKings)

Stafford had 281 passing yards and four touchdowns in a blowout win over the Saints last week, but he is facing a much tougher opponent this week in the 49ers. Additionally, the veteran quarterback had 182 yards against the Jaguars and 181 yards against the Ravens in his two games prior to last week, which both came on the road. He has finished under this total in six of his last eight games against the 49ers, and the model has him recording just 232 yards on Sunday afternoon. 

Justin Herbert, Chargers, Over 0.5 interceptions (+101, DraftKings)

While Herbert ranks second in the NFL in passing yards this season, he has also had his share of turnover issues. He is tied for third in the league in interceptions (8), with four of them coming in the last three games. Herbert is facing a Steelers defense that is tied for sixth in the NFL with eight interceptions after picking off Colts quarterback Daniel Jones three times last week. The model has Herbert throwing an interception in 76% of simulations, providing plenty of value at +101 odds.