NFC West playoff race, scenarios, odds: Dark horse 49ers lurking behind Super Bowl favorite Rams and Seahawks
The race for the NFC West is likely going to go down to the wire
By
John Breech
•
4 min read
The NFC West has been the best division in the NFL this year, and with just four weeks to play in the regular season, it's starting to look like it's also going to give us the best division race down the stretch.
Heading into Week 15, the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are tied at the top of the division with 10-3 records, and then you have the San Francisco 49ers, who are lurking just behind them at 9-4. The Rams and Seahawks have been so dominant this year that they're currently the top-two favorites to win Super Bowl LX.
The Rams are the overall favorite at +370 while the Seahawks are second at +650, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Every other team is +700 or worse.
With three of the best teams in the NFL getting ready to duke it out for a division title over the final four weeks, we thought now would be a good time to take a look at the NFC West race and how it might end up shaking out.
With that in mind, let's get this thing started by checking out the division standings.
NFC West standings, tiebreakers, odds projections
| W-L | Tiebreaker 1: Head-to-head | Tiebreaker 2: Division W-L | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Rams | 10-3 | 1-1 vs. 49ers; 1-0 vs. Seahawks | 3-1 |
| 2. Seahawks | 10-3 | 0-1 vs. 49ers; 0-1 vs. Rams | 2-2 |
| 3. 49ers | 9-4 | 1-1 vs. Rams; 1-0 vs. Seahawks | 4-1 |
Although the Rams and Seahawks have the same record, the Rams are actually in first place right now because they have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks.
Over at DraftKings, the Rams are the favorite to win the division at -145 (bet $145 to win $100). Then there's the Seahawks at +185 and the 49ers at +700. According to our friends at SportsLine, the Rams have a 43.6% chance of winning the division while the Seahawks are right behind them at 40.3%. As for the 49ers, once again, they're the long shot with their chances sitting at just 16.1%.
So who's going to win NFC West? Let's break down each team's easiest path to winning the division.
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Remaining schedule and how each team can win the division
| Game | Rams | Seahawks | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|
Week 15 | Lions (8-5) | Colts (8-5) | Titans (2-11) |
Week 16 | at Seahawks (10-3) | Rams (10-3) | at Colts (8-5) |
Week 17 | at Falcons (4-9) | at Panthers (7-6) | Bears (9-4) |
Week 18 | Cardinals (3-10) | at 49ers (9-4) | Seahawks (10-3) |
One reason the Rams are viewed as the favorites is because they have the easiest remaining strength of schedule out of these three teams at .481. On the other hand, the Seahawks have the second most difficult remaining strength of schedule of any team in the NFL at .654. As you can see, the Seahawks have to play four games against teams who are all currently over .500.
Now that we know each team's schedule, let's check out their path to the division title.
How the 49ers can win the NFC West:
- 49ers win out
- Rams go 3-1, but that one loss has to be to the Seahawks or Cardinals
If these two things happen, the 49ers would finish 13-4 and win the NFC West over a 13-4 Rams team based on the division record tiebreaker. If the Seahawks also finish 13-4 in this scenario, the 49ers would have swept them, so they'd win any tiebreaker with Seattle. At 7-to-1 odds to win the NFC West, the 49ers feel like a steal.
For the Seahawks and Rams, winning the division is a little simpler: All they have to do is win out. Of course, both teams can't win out since the Rams and Seahawks will face each other on Thursday night in Week 16. If the Seahawks beat the Rams in that game, there's a good chance the division won't be decided until Seattle and San Francisco play each other in Week 18.
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Will the NFC West earn two wild card bids?
| NFC wild card standings | W-L |
|---|---|
5. Seahawks | 10-3 |
6. 49ers | 9-4 |
7. Bears | 9-4 |
8. Lions | 8-5 |
9. Panthers | 7-6 |
10. Cowboys | 6-6-1 |
11. Vikings | 5-8 |
The answer to this question is almost certainly going to be yes.
If the Seahawks go 2-2 down the stretch, that will put them at 12-5, meaning the Lions would have to go 4-0 to catch them.
As for the 49ers, they'll be favored in their next two games (against the Titans and Colts), and if they win those, that will put them at 11 wins. The Niners also play the Bears in Week 17, and if they win that game, that would all but guarantee that they're in since they would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Chicago.
Our friends over at SportsLine simulated the rest of the season, and they view all three teams as virtual locks to get in the postseason. The Seahawks have a 97.9% chance of making the playoffs, while the Rams are 94.5% and the 49ers aren't too far behind at 89.4%.
The last time the NFC West sent three teams to the playoffs came back in 2021, and if we get a repeat of that season, the Rams would probably love it, since they won the Super Bowl that year.
