NFL Playoff Picture Week 11 updates: NFC South could land three teams in playoffs

It's the best division in the NFL and it's not even close

The Atlanta Falcons are not going to go quietly into that good night. The defending NFC champions are now right back into the thick of things when it comes to the playoffs, having gone on the road and beaten the Seahawks in Seattle 34-31 in a wild Monday night game that capped off a slow but important week around the NFL. 

We head into Thanksgiving with a loaded NFC, and three of the teams in the playoffs, if they started today, would be from the NFC South. 

The Saints are rolling and might very well be the most complete team in football. The Panthers' offense is starting to come together and Cam Newton is about to get Greg Olsen and Ryan Kalil back. And the Falcons have been a good team this year -- they just haven't managed to put it together from an offensive standpoint. They started to do it on Monday, and Steve Sarkisian looked more comfortable calling plays, even if Atlanta managed to let Seattle back into the game.

The only thing you worry about, if you're an NFC South fan, is the teams playing each other. The Saints and Falcons have to play each other twice. If Atlanta can sweep the Buccaneers, split with the Saints and split with the Vikings/Panthers, they have a 93 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the New York Times Upshot model.

With that same scenario, the Panthers could also lose to the Vikings, but beat the Buccaneers, Jets, Packers and Saints and they would have a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Following along those lines, if the Saints lose once to the Falcons and once to the Panthers but also beat the Rams, Jets, Bucs and Falcons, they would finish 3-2 down the stretch and have a greater than 99 percent chance of making the playoffs. 

Things could go totally differently. The Saints or Falcons could sweep one another and throw things into total upheaval. The Panthers beating the Saints is far from a sure thing, with the game being in New Orleans. Carolina could lose to New York on Thanksgiving weekend and render everything moot. 

But right now the NFC South is playing better than any other division and looks like a decent favorite to land three teams in the postseason. That trio of teams plus the Eagles, Rams and Vikings? The NFC bracket would be absolutely delightful to watch. 

Here's how the rest of the NFL playoff picture looks, as well as a snapshot of some games that could impact what it looks like after Week 11 and beyond.

AFC: Who's in

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)

The Steelers dismantled the Titans on Thursday night, setting the stage for a matchup against the Patriots for homefield advantage in the AFC.

2. New England Patriots (8-2)

The Pats annihilated the Raiders in Mexico City on Sunday afternoon, setting themselves up to secure a bye with five AFC East matchups and a game against Pittsburgh remaining on the schedule.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3)

What did we say last week about the Jags securing a bye? It could all be coming together. They weren't great against the Browns but they still managed to cover with a late defensive touchdown. They jumped the Chiefs this week and have a cake schedule coming in.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)

Some serious struggles lately for Kansas City, and the division can at least be considered in play with K.C. only two games up on Oakland and Los Angeles. 

5. Tennessee Titans (6-4)

Fortunately for the Titans, they're going to make the playoffs regardless of how bad they looked against Pittsburgh. The division is probably the Jags to lose, though.

6. Baltimore Ravens (5-5)

Baltimore shut out the Packers on the road to even up their record and put themselves in great position in the AFC, leapfrogging the Bills for the No. 6 seed in a wide-open AFC race.

AFC: Who's out

7. Buffalo Bills (5-5): Humiliated by the Chargers in L.A. after five picks in the first half from rookie Nathan Peterman.

8. Miami Dolphins (4-6): Even managed to screw up the over/under for everyone in their loss to the Buccaneers.

9. New York Jets (4-6): On a bye this week.

10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6): Season-saving road win against Denver to set them up for a potential playoff run.

11. Houston Texans (4-6): Tom Savage stormed through the Cardinals for Houston. Not even joking, they're still in the playoff hunt.

12. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6): Showed what they're capable of with a big win over the Bills. They have a favorable schedule.

13. Oakland Raiders (4-6): Oakland got absolutely smoked by the Patriots on Sunday afternoon in Mexico.

14. Indianapolis Colts (3-7): On a bye this week.

15. Denver Broncos (3-7): The quarterback position is just a problem. There could be some changes here.

16. Cleveland Browns (0-10): The best of the best when it comes to being bad. They haven't won on a Sunday in over 700 days.

NFC: Who's in

1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)

The Eagles outscored the Cowboys 30-0 on Sunday night to help snuff out any remaining hope for their last remaining NFC East rival.

2. Minnesota Vikings (8-2)

What a convincing win over the Rams on Sunday. The "bench Case Keenum" chatter is shortsighted. 

3. New Orleans Saints (8-2)

Lucky to beat the Redskins at home on Sunday, but this team has a special feel to it. They might be the most complete team in the NFL.

4. Los Angeles Rams (7-3)

Step-back game for L.A. but they weren't terrible, just had some bad mistakes (Cooper Kupp's fumble on the 1-yard line didn't help matters) that doomed them. L.A. is still likely going to the playoffs.

5. Carolina Panthers (7-3)

The Panthers head to New York after their Week 11 bye and could be getting Greg Olsen and Ryan Kalil back. The NFC South is going to be fun to watch. 

6. Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

Well, well, well, if it isn't the defending NFC champs back in the playoff race. After stealing a win in Seattle, the Falcons are right back in the thick of things.

NFC: Who's out

7. Detroit Lions (6-4): The late-game magic from Matthew Stafford is not going away in 2017, and the Lions just keep finding ways to win.

8. Seattle Seahawks (6-4): It is hard to imagine that Seattle can really make a run without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman on that defense. Heck of an effort at home, though.

9. Green Bay Packers (5-5): Green Bay looks dead in the water without Aaron Rodgers. 

10. Dallas Cowboys (5-5): The Cowboys have now lost two straight games and they badly need Tyron Smith back on Thanksgiving against the Chargers' pass rush.

11. Washington Redskins (4-6): The Redskins' season was very much alive with three minutes left in New Orleans. And then it wasn't. 

12. Arizona Cardinals (4-6): Starting quarterback, starting running back, backup quarterback all injured. Reeling. 

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6): Ryan Fitzpatrick looks like an improvement, which is not a good thing in the long run.

14. Chicago Bears (3-7): They're kind of frisky at home but that's about it. 

15. New York Giants (2-8): Ben McAdoo turned into a zombie and outcoached Andy Reid. He's not dead just yet. 

16. San Francisco 49ers (1-9): Coming off a bye and looking for a second-straight win.