NFL Week 12 odds, picks against the spread: Broncos upset Steelers, Panthers stomp Seahawks
Plus more of Will Brinson's best bets for Week 12 of the NFL season
Got some bad news: after two weeks of hitting Thursday winners, I managed to screw the pooch by picking the Redskins. Or, more accurately, the Redskins managed to screw the pooch by being an enticing underdog who put too much on Colt McCoy's plate and then promptly got hosed by the refs.
Whatever. It's Thanksgiving time, so I'll just be thankful I didn't take any more of the underdogs on Turkey Day because it was a favorites party, with the Bears, Cowboys and Saints all covering the spread.
The good news is we've got plenty of other games to find some winners so let's get to it, starting with the the Hue Jackson Revenge Bowl, which has somehow become one of the most exciting games of the weekend to me. You can stream it on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on fuboTV (Try for free).
Listen to Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast as he's joined by Pete Prisco and R.J. White to pick every game against the spread:
Redskins (+7) at Cowboys
Don't want to linger on this loser, but it was a real dagger not to at least push this, especially when a missed helmet-to-helmet hit by the officials late against Jordan Reed resulted in the Redskins kicking a field goal, which caused them to lose by eight, which only happened because their kicker missed an extra point. I get the Cowboys dominated that game, but the Redskins should have covered if they could tackle or if the refs were willing to be fair about handing out flags.
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Browns (+3) at Bengals
This is a pure revenge play against Hue Jackson, who got fired by the Browns midseason and signed with the Bengals. Hue knew darn well that he was going to play the Browns multiple times when he took the job. It might even be why Marvin Lewis brought him on. But I don't care about that, and in fact, I love that Hue is on Cincinnati. It's going to inspire a ton of players, including quarterback Baker Mayfield and running back Nick Chubb, both of whom were benched to start the season in favor of veterans by Jackson. Expect both to have huge games. The defense will want to make Hue's new offense look terrible. And Cincy's defense can't stop anyone. I think the Browns roll into Cincinnati and win this one outright.
Panthers (-3.5) vs. Seahawks
This is pretty simple: no one is going to want to take the Panthers. The Seahawks are starting to get rolling a bit, the Panthers are coming off two losses, people are starting to turn back against Cam Newton, and the Seahawks are getting three points and the hook. Seattle's run game is rolling with the trio of Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny. Russell Wilson is playing pretty good quarterback even if he's not at a high volume. Give me the team that no one wants to back at home where they play much better in an actual must-win situation: the winner of this game controls the NFC wild card situation.
49ers (+3.5) at Buccaneers
This is a West Coast team traveling east and playing early, but I'm not worried that too much, because the 49ers should be able to score on the Buccaneers pretty easily regardless of the time zone given just how terrible the Tampa defense is. The 49ers have actually been pretty darn competitive in the last seven weeks. They have a close loss to the Giants, a blowout win over the Raiders, two fairly tight losses to the Cardinals and narrow losses to the Packers and Chargers. The only bad game in that stretch was a beatdown at the hands of the Rams. They're playing competitive football and the Buccaneers are ... not. Tampa has no home-field advantage, no discernible defense and Kyle Shanahan holds a significant coaching advantage over Dirk Koetter, who is addicted to flip-flopping quarterbacks.
Broncos (+3) vs. Steelers
Pittsburgh narrowly avoided a loss on the road to Jacksonville last week and now they've got to gear back up to travel across the country and play in one of the most difficult road spots in Denver. The Broncos are playing pretty well and actually rank seventh in overall DVOA right now. The Steelers defense has become a better-than-expected unit, but the Broncos can put up some points in this spot and might even win outright. I think everyone is sort of sleeping on the Steelers, but this is one of those annual games where Mike Tomlin's team somehow manages to lose to an inferior opponent. Plus, it's time for some home 'dogs to start covering.
















