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We've officially reached the "I can't believe it's Week X" part of the regular season. With the 2020 campaign coming down to its final month of full slated action, we're seeing teams make the final push towards the playoffs, which makes games that much more exciting to wager on. In Week 13, we fared particularly well with our locks of the week, going 4-1 both ATS and SU. The lone loss came at the hands of Baker Mayfield's offensive explosion against the Titans down in Nashville. While we continued a strong streak on the moneyline with a 10-5 record (22-9 over the last two weeks) last time out, we're still looking to push for more efficiency than the 8-7 ATS mark from Week 13. 

After a couple of weeks where the NFL schedule went bananas, things tentatively look like they are going to be more traditional in Week 14, starting with the Patriots taking on the Rams for Thursday Night Football. That game falls within our five locks of the week, which will kick off our slate of picks for Week 14. All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.

Locks of the Week

New England at L.A. Rams 

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (FOX/NFLN) 

Both of these teams have won and covered in three of their last four games leading into Thursday night. The Patriots, who are still hanging onto to a potential playoff run, made waves in Week 13 after decisively beating the Chargers, 45-0. New England is 3-0 straight up in their last three games as an underdog and has covered four straight. While that's certainly an impressive mark and a testament to how great a coach Bill Belichick is, the talent level on the Rams outweighs that strong record. 

Defensively, Sean McVay's team ranks inside the top-five in DVOA and are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (93.1) entering Week 14. The ground attack is New England's bread-and-butter offensively and if Aaron Donald can help disrupt that, the Patriots likely won't be able to throw their way out of this one and it's hard to count on special teams giving you two touchdowns like they did last week. Since the start of last season, Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in prime time (3-1 ATS in 2020). 

Projected score: L.A. Rams 28, New England 20
My pick: L.A. Rams -5 

Kansas City at Miami 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Despite the 11-1 record on the season, the Chiefs have been in a bit of a slump against the spread, going 0-4 over the past month. Over that stretch, they've been favored by a total of 34.5 points and have only won by a total of 15. Miami, meanwhile, has been the exact opposing and dominating with a 9-3 ATS record in 2020, including covering seven of their last eight. Even with those marks in mind, I'm fading Miami's hot streak expecting the Chiefs to have a solid bounce-back in South Beach and win beyond the touchdown cushion the Dolphins will be getting. On top of simply being the more talented club, something tells me Kansas City will be extra energized following Pittsburgh's upset loss at the hands of the Washington Football Team last week, which opened the door for the No. 1 seed in the conference. That should put even greater emphasis on this game for the Chiefs now and in games going forward. It's also noteworthy that under Andy Reid K.C. is 9-1 SU against rookie quarterbacks. 

Projected score: Kansas City 27, Miami 17
My pick: Kansas City -7

Green Bay at Detroit

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Lions had absolutely no answer for Aaron Jones when they played the Packers in Week 2. Jones finished with 236 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns as Green Bay dropped 42 points on Detroit to get the win. Aaron Rodgers' club has continued to roll throughout the season and is coming into this game hot after beating each of their last two opponents by 14-plus points. The veteran quarterback has been masterful over that stretch as well, throwing seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. While Detroit had a strong response last week in the aftermath of Matt Patricia's firing, but there isn't enough firepower to take down Green Bay here. This season, the Lions are 0-3 ATS and SU against above .500 teams and have lost by an average of 15.7 points. Meanwhile, the Packers have beat up against clubs under .500, going 6-1 ATS and 7-0 SU, and winning by an average of over two touchdowns. 

Projected score: Green Bay 33, Detroit 21
My pick: Green Bay -7.5

Pittsburgh at Buffalo 

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) 

Pittsburgh was handed its first loss of the season in Week 13 courtesy of the Washington Football Team. While this is the first taste of defeat this year, the Steelers have not been playing their best brand of football as of late, failing to cover in three of their past five games. Their 32 dropped passes -- something that plagued the offense in the loss to Washington -- rank second-most in the league this season. On the other side of the field, Buffalo has covered four straight games and were a Kyler Murray Hail Mary away from a four-game winning streak. While Pittsburgh's defense has largely been stout throughout the year, Josh Allen will pose quite the challenge as he's the only player in the NFL with at least 25 touchdown passes and five rushing scores. Because of Allen's versatility, I expect the Steelers to have another rough go of it on Sunday Night Football and fall short for the second straight week. 

Projected score: Buffalo 27, Pittsburgh 24
My pick: Buffalo -2.5

Houston at Chicago 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

I seem to fade the Bears every week, but it's for good reason. Chicago is on a six-game losing streak and are 1-5 ATS over that stretch, which includes four straight ATS losses. No matter who is under center between Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky the passing game seems lost and I have a hard time imagining either one of those signal-callers matching Deshaun Watson throw-for-throw on Sunday. The Bears have allowed 30-plus points in each of their previous two games, setting up Watson for a strong day through the air. Coming into Sunday, Houston is 3-2 ATS and is 4-0 SU in their previous four games against teams below .500. 

Projected score: Houston 24, Chicago 17
My pick: Houston -1

Rest of the bunch

Dallas at Cincinnati 
Projected score: Cowboys 23, Cincinnati 20
My pick: Cincinnati +4

Arizona at N.Y. Giants 
Projected score: N.Y. Giants 21, Arizona 17
My pick: N.Y. Giants +2.5

Minnesota at Tampa Bay 
Projected score: Tampa Bay 33, Minnesota 24
My pick: Tampa Bay -6.5

Denver at Carolina 
Projected score: Carolina 24, Denver 23
My pick: Denver +3.5

Tennessee at Jacksonville 
Projected score: Tennessee 33, Jacksonville 24
My pick: Tennessee -7.5

Indianapolis at Las Vegas 
Projected score: Indianapolis 28, Las Vegas 24
My pick: Indianapolis -2.5

N.Y. Jets at Seattle 
Projected score: Seattle 24, N.Y. Jets 17
My pick: N.Y. Jets +13.5

New Orleans at Philadelphia 
Projected score: New Orleans 30,  Philadelphia 21
My pick: New Orleans -7

Atlanta at L.A. Chargers 
Projected score: Atlanta 27, L.A. Chargers 24
My pick: Atlanta -2.5

Washington at San Francisco 
Projected score: Washington 23, San Francisco 17
My pick: Washington +3

Baltimore at Cleveland 
Projected score: Baltimore 24, Cleveland 20
My pick: Baltimore -1

Picks Record 

Against the spread in Week 13: 8-7
ATS overall: 91-93-6

Straight up in Week 13: 10-5
SU overall: 126-63-1