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We have just three weeks left in the 2025 NFL regular season, and Week 16 presents plenty of intriguing matchups, including two games on Saturday. After a rough Week 14, favorites bounced back in a big way in Week 15. What does that mean for bettors looking to place NFL money line parlays this week? NFL betting expert Jeff Hochman has put together two three-leg money line parlays for Week 16, with one consisting solely of favorites, and the other of three underdogs. 

NFL three-team favorite money line parlay benefits

Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a three-team NFL money line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean toward high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you're not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you're also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.

According to BetMGM data, NFL money line favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023 and a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-24, NFL money line favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites with odds from -250 to -400 tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%.

In Week 15, NFL betting favorites bounced back after a disappointing Week 14, posting an impressive 11-5 record. This season, favorites have now secured 152 wins out of 223 games, sustaining a strong 68.1% success rate. What can we expect in Week 16? Will the favorites continue their streak, or will underdogs rise to the occasion? Check out Jeff's top money line parlays featuring both favorites and underdogs.

Week 16 NFL money line favorites parlay

Detroit Lions over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Detroit Lions have alternated wins and losses the past 10 games. They are coming off a loss, falling 41-34 as 5.5-point road underdogs against the Rams. Pittsburgh is coming off a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Dan Campbell and Co. have won 15 consecutive regular-season games immediately following a loss. The Lions have not dropped back-to-back games since Weeks 7 and 8 of the 2022 season, and their offensive efficiency (6.2 yards per play, tied for first) starkly contrasts with Pittsburgh's defensive metrics (5.4 yards allowed per play). Detroit ranks first in the NFL in points per game at 30.6, while Pittsburgh allows 23.3 points per game. The Lions also rank 10 spots higher in total DVOA.

Jared Goff played well in Detroit's loss to Los Angeles, completing 25 of his 32 passes (78.1%) for 338 yards and three touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams both had strong games against the Rams' secondary. Detroit's defensive line consistently pressures quarterbacks -- the Lions sack opponents at a 9.52% rate, fourth-best in the NFL. Given Aaron Rodgers' limited mobility at this stage of his career, Detroit's pass rush should create problems.

Pittsburgh will be without T.J. Watt, who had surgery on Dec. 12 to repair a partially collapsed lung, and he is expected to miss multiple weeks. The Steelers have managed to win more than two consecutive games only once this season, and that was following their bye week. The Steelers allow 120.9 rush yards per game (19th), which could benefit Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Gibbs averaged 2.9 yards per rush in his last game. I would take a long look at his rushing props to go "Over." Take the Lions in this smash-mouth spot at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Carolina Panthers 

Tampa Bay's sack differential advantage (+0.2 vs. -0.6 per game) will be critical against a Carolina offense that's been vulnerable under duress. The Panthers allow 31 sacks (tied with the Buccaneers) but generate only 23 sacks themselves -- a massive negative swing. While both teams are struggling (Bucs on a two-game losing streak, Panthers alternating wins and losses), Tampa Bay has significantly higher-quality wins earlier in the season and has played a more demanding schedule (No. 12 vs. No. 26).

The Panthers want to run the ball early and often with Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. This plays right into the hands of the Bucs' defense, especially with Vita Vea in the middle of that defensive line. Tampa Bay is ranked 10th in rushing yards against, which will force Bryce Young into obvious passing downs.

My betting model loves the road team. The Buccaneers have a 6.5-point edge at this line, with projections showing a 9.27-point margin and 78.3% win probability. I have more confidence playing Tampa Bay on the money line considering this is a division matchup. The Panthers have defensive strengths in specific areas (red zone and pass efficiency) but lack the pass-rush impact or offensive firepower to consistently move the ball against a Buccaneers team that should dominate time of possession and field position. Tampa Bay also benefits from extra preparation time following last Thursday's debacle -- and the Bucs have dominated this matchup, winning nine of the last 10 meetings. I like Baker Mayfield and Co. to bounce back in this spot.

Denver Broncos over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Denver current market line of -3 is roughly 2.5 to 3.5 points softer than advanced metrics suggest. According to my model, Denver would be favored by 5.5 to 6 points on a neutral field (-200). Add in the well-established home-field advantage at Mile High (about +2.8 points), and the true line should be closer to Denver -7 or -8.5. (-350 to -400). At -3, Broncos backers are getting significant value. All we need is an outright victory.

Denver's defense is stifling in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on just 38.4% of opponent trips -- the best in the NFL. This is a nightmare for Jacksonville, as Trevor Lawrence's QBR is 51.8 (21st). While Lawrence can move the ball, Denver's red zone efficiency is the single largest predictive edge in this matchup. The Broncos also excel at ending drives. Opponents convert on third down just 31.9% of the time against Denver, the top mark in the league. On the other hand, Jacksonville's offense is below average on third downs (25th at 36.8%). The Jaguars will find it tough to sustain drives, which will compound their red-zone challenges.

Denver owns the NFL's second-best pass rush, notching sacks on 10.5% of opponent dropbacks. With Jacksonville's offensive line riddled by injuries and multiple starters questionable, Trevor Lawrence is likely to face relentless pressure from all angles -- even without Denver needing to blitz. Historically, Lawrence's interception rate spikes when he's hurried, giving the Broncos a prime opportunity to force game-changing turnovers.

Consistency is often overlooked, but it is a vital metric this late in the season. Denver ranks third in the league with an 8.5 consistency rating, executing their game plan with precision at home. Jacksonville's volatility (12.3 rating, 23rd overall) makes it unpredictable and more prone to lapses, especially on the road. Adding to their challenges, Jacksonville will be playing just its second outdoor road game since late September. Expect the Broncos to capitalize and secure another win.

NFL three-team underdog money line parlay benefits

A very popular option is available if you're willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations, with home underdogs of +2 to +3 winning outright 46-48% of the time.

Week 16 NFL money line underdog parlay

Tennessee Titans over Kansas City Chiefs 

I promised never to take the Tennessee Titans on these pages, but this is a unique spot after Patrick Mahomes' unfortunate torn ACL that will keep him out for at least a calendar year. Gardner Minshew, a five-year journeyman backup, takes over as the Chiefs' starter. This transition is significant: Minshew had not thrown a pass all season before Week 15, when he threw an interception on his first attempt. His career record stands at 17-29, putting him well below league-average. The Chiefs' offense -- seventh in yards per game at 357.9 yards -- was already built around Mahomes' arm talent and improvisational ability.

The Chiefs have been officially eliminated from playoff contention, the first playoff miss since 2014. This elimination removes any competitive incentive for the organization. When a team enters a game mathematically eliminated from the postseason, players and coaches shift into a "just finish the season" mentality. Kansas City still possesses superior talent at nearly every position and has a proven offensive system (despite a quarterback downgrade).

On the surface, the Titans face a tanking disincentive, and additional wins hurt their draft positioning. However, interim head coach Mike McCoy has stated the team maintains a "burning desire to win" regardless of its 2-10 record. This creates an unpredictable dynamic where Tennessee might be unusually energized to beat a historically superior opponent while Kansas City plays out the string. After seeing their playoff hopes dashed last week, it's common for teams in this spot to lack energy and struggle to get motivated.

Los Angeles Chargers over Dallas Cowboys 

Start with the basics: the Chargers have outscored opponents by 31 points this season. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have been outscored by nine. That 40-point difference says a lot about where these teams stand. The Chargers also average +0.3 more yards per play on offense versus defense (12th in the league), while Dallas breaks even (0.0, 29th). Both teams have really good kickers and banged-up offensive lines. Los Angeles is able to game plan around it, while Dallas seems to struggle when it matters most.

There are three glaring differences in this matchup. The Chargers allow 279.1 yards per game (second best) while the Cowboys allow 374.9 yards per game (29th). Against Justin Herbert's balanced offense and the Chargers' strong receivers, this is catastrophic for Dallas. Additionally, the Chargers' opponent passer rating of 71.1 (best in league) versus the Cowboys' 109.1 (worst in the league) tells the story. Finally, the Chargers are ranked fifth in red zone defense while the Cowboys are ranked 30th.

Dallas' secondary is historically bad this season, especially when the defensive front doesn't generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Jim Harbaugh is coaching up his offensive line despite all the injuries. I have all the confidence in the Chargers' coaching staff against the Cowboys' coaches. The Chargers have posted an impressive 14-4 record since Week 8 over the past two seasons. I would expect more of the same.

New England Patriots over Baltimore Ravens

My model gives the New England Patriots a 56% chance of winning outright with a projected final score of 27-25. The Patriots have been a juggernaut on the road (6-0), flourishing away from home. Conversely, the Ravens have been a liability at M&T Bank Stadium this season, posting a 3-5 home record.

New England has a top-seven scoring defense (19.7 PPG allowed), while Baltimore's defense has regressed to league average (22.9 PPG allowed, ranking 15th). Drake Maye has emerged as an MVP-caliber talent, completing a league-leading 70.9% of his passes for 3,567 yards with 23 touchdowns and only six interceptions. His passer rating sits at 109.1, and he's added 362 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson's recent form represents the inverse trajectory -- his completion percentage has plummeted to 56%, and he's averaging 7.0 yards per attempt with a passer rating of just 69.7 over his last four games.

The Ravens have struggled under the lights, managing just a 1-3 record in prime-time games and going winless (0-2) at home. Meanwhile, the Patriots have thrived in the spotlight, winning all three of their prime-time matchups so far. The Patriots may have let a 21-point lead slip away against the Bills last week, but they've bounced back from setbacks all year and still sit atop the AFC East with an 11-3 record. The loss provides extra motivation for the Pats. Mike Vrabel has an impressive 33-16 career record in games immediately following a loss as an NFL head coach, between his time with the Tennessee Titans and his current squad.